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We Are Now In Crash Territory - Irrational Exuberance - The Bulls Remain In Control


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#31 tradesurfer

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Posted 14 December 2020 - 03:43 PM

I see the tlt making a big move up soon .

Deflation insolvency 3.0 here we come


US 10 yr bond yield just formed a head and shoulders on its daily chart, that may indicate it has reached the ST top.  Let's see how it will react to the Fed statement on Wednesday .............................



#32 dTraderB

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Posted 14 December 2020 - 04:45 PM

What a SPX reversal
Closed nq hedge long +110.25: could have losed much higher but I opened another 4 SPY Puts so kept it for most of the session until ES tanked while NQ RETAINED MOST OF THE RALLY.

Opened 1 ES HEDGE LONG 3643;
Holding 19 FEB SPY PUTS



Will  continue to trade smaller positions unless market explodes - up or down. Last week I closed SPY PUTS with profits from as low as 0.70 to 1.85
 
May do the same for rest of year unless market drops by at least 100 SPX points
Also, will build on my SPY PUTS position as market rallies, partial hedge as position grows
 
Posted 11 December 2020 - 04:33 PM

Closed 1 nq hedge long +61.5 points
Keeping 1 nq hedge long over weekend
Ckosed 7 SPY PUTS, HOLDING 15

BEARS TRYING BUT BULLS BUYING THE DIP.

STILL, I LOOK FOR MORE WEAKNESS BEFORE end of the year



#33 dTraderB

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Posted 14 December 2020 - 04:49 PM

Good day for nq daytrading but looked much more promising after the pajama guys ramped it up.
Looking for more decline from these levels at the close. This could drop hard & fast but the bounce afterwards will be a memorable one

#34 dTraderB

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Posted 14 December 2020 - 04:51 PM

ADAM:
This market has conditioned many bulls to expect constant 0.5%-1% green days and many bears to over-react to the slightest red thinking the "top" is in. Reality is trending markets spend a good deal of time consolidating/chopping traders both ways between legs. Patience is key

#35 dTraderB

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Posted 15 December 2020 - 07:35 AM

Closed es long hedge + 22.75 points
Thank you, hedge, all hedges! Out of that December big 2018 Options loss came a ñrofitable Hedged Oprions strategy!

Will trade an extra NQ daytrade long to hedge partially until another ES hedge long is reopened



What a SPX reversal
Closed nq hedge long +110.25: could have losed much higher but I opened another 4 SPY Puts so kept it for most of the session until ES tanked while NQ RETAINED MOST OF THE RALLY.

Opened 1 ES HEDGE LONG 3643;
Holding 19 FEB SPY PUTS


Will  continue to trade smaller positions unless market explodes - up or down. Last week I closed SPY PUTS with profits from as low as 0.70 to 1.85
 
May do the same for rest of year unless market drops by at least 100 SPX points
Also, will build on my SPY PUTS position as market rallies, partial hedge as position grows
 
Posted 11 December 2020 - 04:33 PM

Closed 1 nq hedge long +61.5 points
Keeping 1 nq hedge long over weekend
Ckosed 7 SPY PUTS, HOLDING 15

BEARS TRYING BUT BULLS BUYING THE DIP.

STILL, I LOOK FOR MORE WEAKNESS BEFORE end of the year



#36 dTraderB

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Posted 15 December 2020 - 07:36 AM

Will add SPY PUTS ON any rally above es 3700

#37 redfoliage2

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Posted 15 December 2020 - 09:29 AM

Currently this market just news-driven moving in the range SPX 3640 - 3715.


Edited by redfoliage2, 15 December 2020 - 09:38 AM.


#38 traderx

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Posted 15 December 2020 - 09:54 AM

market has been somewhat news driven for long time-more so now with pandemic and congress going ons!!!



#39 redfoliage2

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Posted 15 December 2020 - 10:07 AM

The pandemic is getting old and with the rolling out of the vaccine we should hear more good news than bad news from now to early next year.  I see SPX at 4K at some point next year.  For this week it's the stimulus bill and the Fed  ...........................


Edited by redfoliage2, 15 December 2020 - 10:11 AM.


#40 12SPX

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Posted 15 December 2020 - 10:23 AM

Late posting today but long again at 3664 on a new trade, got out just before the open with a profit on the other trade at 3665 for a 1 point profit as I added overnight.  Basically back into the same trade now.  I agree there could be a rally this week however as it didn't really move yesterday after that initial pop its because the upside does appear limited because of the length of this expiration cycle.  This time I'm sticking with what I think, I'm still mad I didn't hold my short longer yesterday instead of going long lol!!  I believe the Fed's POMO is having less and less of an effect on the market as they've been doing it for so long now its losing its effect.