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Risk Window This Week and Closing the Loop


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#1 Douglas

Douglas

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Posted 28 December 2020 - 03:01 AM

According to my risk summation system, the day this week with the highest risk of a sharp turn in or acceleration of the current trend is Thursday December 31st.  There is also a strange null period roughly in the middle of this week which may turn out to be some sort of local low, but it's not really a risk window, just an oddity in the data set.  The value of the risk window signal this Thursday is not that great.  Based on preliminary calculations the next really high risk window value currently looks like Wednesday January the 6th.

 

Last week's Monday risk window was a low.  The Friday risk window appears to have been a higher low based on futures trading this morning.  Neither were very satisfying since Monday I was fooled by early crashing futures prices into thinking it was an acceleration day when it actually turned out to be a low.  Friday's action was so dull that it really doesn't fit my expectations for risk window action although if the DJIA marches higher this week, it may turn out to have been an important turning point.  

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The infernal DJIA rising wedge is still active moving back towards the top trend line this morning.  I've had to redraw the bottom trend line a couple of times as the thing has wallowed out a larger pattern and refused to pick a trend direction.  I wish it would just break one way or the other and put me out of my misery.

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In a string of posts late last week I showed an intersecting trend line technique for predicting turns.  In the final example posted last Friday the 24th I showed an hourly intersecting trend line pattern in the USD which was predicting a local Friday the 24th top.  Well, if futures continue their current path this morning, that local top looks to be in place.  The green triangle pattern which has also been broken is much more worrisome to folks like me who like a stronger dollar.

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If I don't get a chance to post again before the end of the week, have a Happy New Year.  It's just got to be happier than this last crappy year.

 

Regards,

Douglas


Edited by Douglas, 28 December 2020 - 03:06 AM.


#2 Douglas

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Posted 28 December 2020 - 06:36 AM

Just a couple of hours after I posted the note above, somebody bought the Dollar with both hands creating a spike right up to the broken trend line so that the "local" top that I noted is starting to look real local.  I suppose the broken triangle trend line could provide resistance and triangle focuses do coincide with turns, so maybe the turn down will hold, but it sure isn't looking as bad for the buck as it was a couple of hours ago.  I will go looking for some news item that drove this dollar buy.  If I can't find anything, I suppose it could be chalked up to folks with deep pockets just deep frying other folks who acted on the same patterns that I pointed out.  It might just boil down to the rule of the bigger bucks.  If you have the bigger bucks, you get to make the rules.

 

Regardless,

Douglas

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