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Bullish momentum, ATH, frothing, fizzling, beware of the big drop ahead


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 28 December 2020 - 06:30 AM

Not an active market but thin markets do not prevent more ATHs as this bullish momentum continues to reward the dip buyers. 

Rotation, less market participants, and an unusually high VIX could keep this market frothing & fizzling, bubbling for days, weeks, even months but the big drop is ahead. If not a 15 to 20% then many 3 to 5 % pullbacks until the big one. 

 

I am flat except for NQ daytrades and will trade lightly until Jan 2nd 2021. However, I will start building a new QQQ PUT position at least two option periods away. 



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 28 December 2020 - 06:33 AM

TIC TOC on Telegram:

On $SPX $ES side of the house, do not see any sell pressure if bears can’t even manage a signal close below 3680. Now 3715. This thing can keep floating up and on any close above 3750, it can trade 4,000 next.


#3 dTraderB

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Posted 28 December 2020 - 06:35 AM

Have a great weekend! December has been consolidation month (megaphone pattern) for #ES_F. This means trend leg next. Looking for a good rally then pullback My Plan: 3740, 3770, 3900 are upside targets. Warning though:3655 goes 1st & it could unravel, opening 3615 then 3570 $SPX


#4 dTraderB

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Posted 28 December 2020 - 06:37 AM

15% gap just a bit too bullish .... the exuberance thing

 

Saturday Poll The next 100 points for the S&P? PS. When I first started these weekly polls 100 points was about 5%, now it's more like 3%.
 
UP
57.5%
 
DOWN
42.5%
2,515 votes·Final results


#5 dTraderB

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Posted 28 December 2020 - 06:39 AM

Lance Roberts
#Bubbles are NOT ABOUT #Valuations. They are about #psychology. "“Sentiment and valuation go hand-in-hand. One impacts the other and creates a self-reinforcing loop until something happens to break the cycle." https://realinvestmentadvice.com/all-i-want-for-christmas-is-a-bull-market-full-version-12-25-20/


#6 dTraderB

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Posted 28 December 2020 - 06:45 AM

Two NQ trades this morning, sitting, waiting..... watching, for any reasonable trade setup ... 

 

 

There is actually information in that statement of supposed flaw. Overbought/sold indications may get ignored in a strong trend. So if you see that, it is a sign you’re in a strong trend.
Quote Tweet
 
 
Oy8UM0-5_mini.jpg
 
Peter Brandt
@PeterLBrandt
· 17h
Regarding indicators Personally I find RSI and OB indicators to be extremely unreliable in bull trends. Bull markets become OB and stay OB. Grand bull markets become and stay grandly OB. Only triple non-confirmations between price and indicator should be considered reliable.


#7 12SPX

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Posted 28 December 2020 - 08:56 AM

Markets so predictable, or should I say the bullishness is too bullish which always means things may be coming to an end.  Nonetheless my profit stop was hit just after the open yesterday for a 3 point profit and my radical overnight trade never got hit so I'm starting with a short build here at 3723! 



#8 12SPX

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Posted 28 December 2020 - 09:32 AM

What a surprise, lower then afterhours lol! Profit stop 3722!! 



#9 12SPX

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Posted 28 December 2020 - 09:40 AM

Profit stop 3720! 



#10 12SPX

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Posted 28 December 2020 - 09:50 AM

And out for 3 points and starting the build again at 3722!