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Risk Window This Week & The Night The Lights Went Out In GA


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#1 Douglas

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Posted 02 January 2021 - 06:50 AM

According to my risk summation system, the day this coming week with the highest risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend is Wednesday January 6th.  

 

This coming Wednesday is also the first trading day after the night that the lights will go out in Georgia for one of the US political parties which could in itself be market moving.  Since this coming Monday Not Sure will be formally elected to replace President Camacho, the Senate will be the only wild card left in the election deck.

 

The jury is still out on last week's Thursday risk window.  If the DJIA heads south this coming Monday, it is reasonable to tag last Thursday's risk window as a top.  Any other market action and it will have to be labelled a dud.

 

R3eHk2Q.png

 

The eternal rising wedge is somehow still in play, although I've now seen it noted so many times on market web sites, that it's bound to have lost any real punch.  

 

JHrLDrJ.png

 

Regards,

Douglas


Edited by Douglas, 02 January 2021 - 06:52 AM.


#2 Douglas

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Posted 02 January 2021 - 07:06 AM

After I posted the above, I read that the electoral count is to be done on Wednesday January 6th, not Monday the 4th as I noted, so it's all happening on Wednesday, risky day indeed.  I shouldn't mix so much rum with my Brawndo when I'm posting here.

 

Regards,

Douglas


Edited by Douglas, 02 January 2021 - 07:08 AM.


#3 slupert

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Posted 02 January 2021 - 01:21 PM

After I posted the above, I read that the electoral count is to be done on Wednesday January 6th, not Monday the 4th as I noted, so it's all happening on Wednesday, risky day indeed.  I shouldn't mix so much rum with my Brawndo when I'm posting here.

 

Regards,

Douglas

Monday might be a little more volatile than you think. The end of the year grind is over, tax liabilities are in the new year, some were hanging on by skin of their teeth protecting that profit until Jan, 1. Market should open up positive then hold on to your hat. (JMHO)



#4 Douglas

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Posted 02 January 2021 - 02:06 PM

Slupert, if the $33k bitcoin price today is any indication, then Monday may well turn out to be wild, but heck if I know in which direction.  Sentiment is pretty stretched, but  the current market rubber is pretty tough stuff.  I guess last Thursday's risk window does point down, but this new generation of Robinhood traders are all meshuggeneh in la  cabeza and will apparently buy anything with a pulse and even a few vampire SPACS without one.

 

Regards,

Douglas



#5 slupert

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Posted 03 January 2021 - 01:03 PM

Slupert, if the $33k bitcoin price today is any indication, then Monday may well turn out to be wild, but heck if I know in which direction.  Sentiment is pretty stretched, but  the current market rubber is pretty tough stuff.  I guess last Thursday's risk window does point down, but this new generation of Robinhood traders are all meshuggeneh in la  cabeza and will apparently buy anything with a pulse and even a few vampire SPACS without one.

 

Regards,

Douglas

I think we say good bye to the Robin Hood crowd this year. Mom 'n Pop better learn to use hard stops or short sale triggers below the market.



#6 Douglas

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Posted 04 January 2021 - 10:59 AM

Hey slupert, that pop and drop call you made above is looking awfully good right now.  Hope you made some dosh on it.   I'm a little disappointed since the rally very early this morning looked like the DJIA might finally break out of that danged rising wedge I've been going on and on about.  Now it looks like a fake out instead of a break out so the DJIA is back trading inside the wedge yet again.  

 

I saw a post today of yours about the USD.  The monthly chart below shows my take on it.  As a UK resident paid in USD, no one is cheering more for a strong dollar than me, but my chart is super bearish longer term on the dollar.  A broken long trend line and a double top are a terrible twosome.   I hope I'm wrong and the middle red line holds, but it looks pretty bad for the buck if not.

 

THlzaWg.png

 

Regards,

Douglas


Edited by Douglas, 04 January 2021 - 11:01 AM.