Jump to content



Photo

7 TRILLION FED CASH, SPX 4400


  • Please log in to reply
98 replies to this topic

#1 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 8,156 posts

Posted 03 January 2021 - 09:21 AM

That is one of the several forecasts from one of the major players in the US & global markets, see link below.

My FF forecast is SPX 3500 at the end of 2021, high SPX 4100, LOW SPX 3100
 

JPMorgan: The Fed could add up to 7 trillion USD in liquidity in case of an L-shape recovery

In the first three months following the February/March panic, assets from the Fed nearly doubled from 3.8 trillion USD to 7 trillion USD and then remain steady for the rest of the year. JPMorgan’s research estimated four different forecasts of where the Fed assets would be by the end of 2021; interestingly, JPM expects the asset to nearly double to 14 trillion USD in case the US experiences a L-shape recovery.

Even though we think that this forecast is very unlikely, the JPM research team assigns a low probability of less than 10 percent, with the base case being probably between a V-shape and U-shape recovery, leading to another 1 to 2 trillion USD of additional liquidity in 2021. The team sees the S&P 500 reaching 4,000 early this year with a base case S&P 500 price target of 4,400 amid the combination of constant liquidity injections and positive vaccine news.
https://seekingalpha...s-and-liquidity



#2 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 8,156 posts

Posted 03 January 2021 - 09:22 AM

"Closing thoughts

Despite valuations looking "stretched", sentiment indicators trading at extreme levels and traditional ratios (P/E, price-to-sales…) starting to diverge significantly from historical levels, we think that the liquidity injections from major central banks could be enough to generate new highs in markets, and especially for mega-cap growth stocks.

 

Figure 5 (left frame) shows the evolution of the major five central banks’ assets (Fed, ECB, BoJ, BoE, PBoC) since 2002; after the 8 trillion USD surge we saw in 2020, we expect the top five central banks to add another 3 trillion USD of liquidity this year, which would raise the total to 31 trillion USD.

We previously saw that the liquidity force has generated a sharp rally in some sectors such as tech for instance; the FANG+ index is up 60% from its February peak. Figure 5 (right frame) shows the significant co-movement between major central banks' assets and the tech sector in the past cycle; more liquidity simply means higher valuations.

Therefore, we still think that US equities have another year ahead of them and that the S&P 500 is likely to break through its psychological resistance of 4,000 within the next three to six months with a peak probably priced for early 2022."

https://seekingalpha...s-and-liquidity



#3 slupert

slupert

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,674 posts

Posted 03 January 2021 - 01:00 PM

That is one of the several forecasts from one of the major players in the US & global markets, see link below.

My FF forecast is SPX 3500 at the end of 2021, high SPX 4100, LOW SPX 3100
 

JPMorgan: The Fed could add up to 7 trillion USD in liquidity in case of an L-shape recovery

In the first three months following the February/March panic, assets from the Fed nearly doubled from 3.8 trillion USD to 7 trillion USD and then remain steady for the rest of the year. JPMorgan’s research estimated four different forecasts of where the Fed assets would be by the end of 2021; interestingly, JPM expects the asset to nearly double to 14 trillion USD in case the US experiences a L-shape recovery.

Even though we think that this forecast is very unlikely, the JPM research team assigns a low probability of less than 10 percent, with the base case being probably between a V-shape and U-shape recovery, leading to another 1 to 2 trillion USD of additional liquidity in 2021. The team sees the S&P 500 reaching 4,000 early this year with a base case S&P 500 price target of 4,400 amid the combination of constant liquidity injections and positive vaccine news.
https://seekingalpha...s-and-liquidity

I agree with the wide range, maybe even 42-4300, but lower 2800, or lower, 3500 sounds about right unless inflation over shoots. They can't put that fire out by pouring more gasoline on it. (JMHO)



#4 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 8,156 posts

Posted 03 January 2021 - 02:03 PM

Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4) tweeted at 0:15 pm on Sun, Jan 03, 2021:
Have a great Sunday! Big Jan ahead for $SPX-Santa rally phase almost done, volume back + several news catalysts

Plan this week: If bulls hold 3723, looking to 3815, good pullback, then 3900. Warning: 3723 fails we see ~3695- last shot for longs before big sell leg. Details below https://t.co/tA40UyZoiV
(https://twitter.com/...3436087299?s=03)

#5 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 8,156 posts

Posted 03 January 2021 - 05:41 PM

Want to get more volume, bigger range, more active market... let's start 2021 with a great session!

 

Saturday Poll The next 100 points for the S&P?
 
UP
52.6%
 
DOWN
47.4%
1,909 votes·Final results


#6 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 8,156 posts

Posted 03 January 2021 - 05:47 PM

Replying to
Note: As posted in the chart we closed right at resistance on Thursday at 3755 (which was ~my target that day) so the open today is important. Bulls want either a gap right above it to setup higher, or mild pullback that holds the 3723 level. Loss of 3723 is not good for bulls
 


#7 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 8,156 posts

Posted 03 January 2021 - 05:48 PM

WTF ...

https://www.washingt...1991_video.html



#8 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 8,156 posts

Posted 03 January 2021 - 05:50 PM

Tom is not bearish? Welcome, Tom!

 

I am greatly optimistic about 2021 in a general sense, but not in a stock market sense, especially at the beginning of the year. This view is largely because pessimism about the stock market has mostly disappeared. That has to be fixed before the uptrend can again proceed.


#9 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 8,156 posts

Posted 03 January 2021 - 05:53 PM

back to zero line...

 

McClellanOsc_955.gif

 

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/



#10 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 8,156 posts

Posted 03 January 2021 - 05:54 PM

https://www.marketin...ine-volume-line

 

and this

 

https://www.marketin...summation-index