Jump to content



Photo

Risk Windows for the Week of January 11th


  • Please log in to reply
23 replies to this topic

#1 Douglas

Douglas

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,217 posts

Posted 10 January 2021 - 08:47 AM

According to my risk summation system, the days next week with the highest risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend are Monday the 11th and Thursday the 14th of January.  

 

Last week the Wednesday the 6th risk window was an acceleration day in the stock market which did a Nero or maybe a Caligula and fiddled and fooled around while Rome quaked on one very strange, risky day. 

 

While I was tinkering around working on this week's risk window calculations, I found a "new" cycle which I have added to the risk window stable.  The chart below shows this cycle's hits over the last few months and the one next Thursday the 14th.  These type cycles get hot then cool off just as quickly.  This roughly 51 day one is currently smoking.  Of course, as soon as I point it out, you just know it will cool off, thanks to Heisenberg I suppose.

 

 l6Md8A7.png

 

Regards,

Douglas



#2 salam

salam

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,578 posts

Posted 10 January 2021 - 10:10 AM

A very important period in the blow off phase imho Doug

 

I’ll be looking with keen interest what type of weekly candles we now get.

 

I sincerely hope sentiment shifts to the BULLIS side in a big way.... otherwise, we grind higher. 
 

Fiddling while Rome burned is like inciting the armed storming of your state Capitol, with total disregard for the constitution, democracy nor common decency.

 

Trump sycophants should be ashamed of themselves, as the rest of the world gasps in horror.

 

Less than 9 more days, and the orange man baby will be escorted out.

 

 

hapoy 2021 Doug! 


Edited by salam, 10 January 2021 - 10:15 AM.

I'm not sure what my future holds... But I know who holds it.

#3 linrom1

linrom1

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,707 posts

Posted 10 January 2021 - 10:56 AM

A very important period in the blow off phase imho Doug

 

I’ll be looking with keen interest what type of weekly candles we now get.

 

I sincerely hope sentiment shifts to the BULLIS side in a big way.... otherwise, we grind higher. 
 

Fiddling while Rome burned is like inciting the armed storming of your state Capitol, with total disregard for the constitution, democracy nor common decency.

 

Trump sycophants should be ashamed of themselves, as the rest of the world gasps in horror.

 

Less than 9 more days, and the orange man baby will be escorted out.

 

 

hapoy 2021 Doug! 

I think that you should be BANNED.


Edited by linrom1, 10 January 2021 - 10:56 AM.


#4 bigtrader

bigtrader

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 396 posts

Posted 10 January 2021 - 11:38 AM

A very important period in the blow off phase imho Doug

 

I’ll be looking with keen interest what type of weekly candles we now get.

 

I sincerely hope sentiment shifts to the BULLIS side in a big way.... otherwise, we grind higher. 
 

Fiddling while Rome burned is like inciting the armed storming of your state Capitol, with total disregard for the constitution, democracy nor common decency.

 

Trump sycophants should be ashamed of themselves, as the rest of the world gasps in horror.

 

Less than 9 more days, and the orange man baby will be escorted out.

 

 

hapoy 2021 Doug! 

You and China Joe a traitor to the American worker have no clue.

 

I will now step down, no impeachment needed.


KISS my avatar!!!

#5 LMF

LMF

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 678 posts

Posted 10 January 2021 - 12:32 PM

Salam.....ya really gotta get on track here. Its about trading. Trading.......say it a few times. Trading.....

#6 Douglas

Douglas

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,217 posts

Posted 10 January 2021 - 01:29 PM

In an effort to get this thread back on track, please take a look at the graph below of VIX plotted against the long Bollinger band width of SPY.  The volatility earlier this year has elevated background fear in the market which is working for the bulls in the face of shorter term high levels of bullish sentiment.   VIX is still very elevated  sitting on top of the red channel despite SPY being back at all time highs.  Absent the volatility earlier this year as seen in the Bollinger Band width sitting on top its green channel, VIX probably would be knocking on the door of single digits.  Until this background fear dissipates, it would appear great care must be used in using excessive short term bullishness to make longer term negative market direction calls.  This long term background bearishness needs to be averaged into our sentiment  thinking until it fades from the market participant's collective memory.

 

UZvEuDa.png

 

Regards,

Douglas


Edited by Douglas, 10 January 2021 - 01:32 PM.


#7 LMF

LMF

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 678 posts

Posted 10 January 2021 - 03:37 PM

I keep track of when the TQQQ 20 min EMA spends the entire session below the moving average cloud as I call it. Last time was Dec 9-11......so were close enough at the limits after last week. Its coming......

#8 salam

salam

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,578 posts

Posted 10 January 2021 - 06:33 PM

Salam.....ya really gotta get on track here. Its about trading. Trading.......say it a few times. Trading.....

I hadn’t realised this is a conservative only trading board? 
 

Right wing posts have always been allowed here, but .....I have to be banned coz the whole world laughs at Trump. ( who you all clearly adore) Critics of other great leaders like Kim Jon Un, Stalin, Hitler were banned too for much worse than me.


I'm not sure what my future holds... But I know who holds it.

#9 salam

salam

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,578 posts

Posted 10 January 2021 - 06:40 PM

In an effort to get this thread back on track, please take a look at the graph below of VIX plotted against the long Bollinger band width of SPY.  The volatility earlier this year has elevated background fear in the market which is working for the bulls in the face of shorter term high levels of bullish sentiment.   VIX is still very elevated  sitting on top of the red channel despite SPY being back at all time highs.  Absent the volatility earlier this year as seen in the Bollinger Band width sitting on top its green channel, VIX probably would be knocking on the door of single digits.  Until this background fear dissipates, it would appear great care must be used in using excessive short term bullishness to make longer term negative market direction calls.  This long term background bearishness needs to be averaged into our sentiment  thinking until it fades from the market participant's collective memory.

 

UZvEuDa.png

 

Regards,

Douglas

Douglas, thank you for sharing.

 

You make excellent points, and fear as represented by the VIX should he in single digits, at current ATHs.

 

for this reason Vix ETFs are my vehicle of choice especially during historic turns like our present exuberance in the face of a 100 year Global catastrophic pandemic.

  This long term background bearishness needs to be averaged into our sentiment thinking until it fades from the market participant's collective memory.

 

So, Douglas, how long till this memory fades do you think ? 


I'm not sure what my future holds... But I know who holds it.

#10 Douglas

Douglas

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,217 posts

Posted 11 January 2021 - 03:43 AM

Salam, I have no idea how long it will take for this background fear to fade - 6 more months, a year ???, but the value of VIX should tell us when it happens.  When VIX is able to fall deeply into that red channel, it will show that folks again have enough market confidence to short VIX and that will be my signal that they finally have hammered the spears of fear into the horns of happiness.  When they blow those horns, the market walls like Jericho's will come tumbling down.

 

Regards,

Douglas