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Market priced for Perfection - Price Action Strong, Seasonality Weak


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#21 dTraderB

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Posted 09 February 2021 - 06:39 AM

I still don't know what this means but I do know it looks like something it has never done before.
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Tom Hearden
 
@followtheh
· 14h
And $RUT closed 40% on the nose above the 200 day


#22 dTraderB

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Posted 09 February 2021 - 06:39 AM

 
 
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The S&P 500 up the first 6 days of February is the longest win streak to start any month since 6 in August 2020 and 6 in April 2019. No month has started with a 7 day win streak since September 2013. Could happen tomorrow...


#23 dTraderB

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Posted 09 February 2021 - 06:40 AM

If my eyes are ok I think the last time the DJIA went six straight was into the June high. Anyone confirm this?
 
Replying to
correct, almost 7, but was down 17 points that first day off the previous low


#24 dTraderB

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Posted 09 February 2021 - 06:42 AM

 ADAM:

 

 
Bull flag breaking out here! Let's see if it can get to 3920 target
 
Quiet day for #ES_F and not surprising after the huge week last week/run last night. Action today looks like a bull flag forming which sets up a run my 3920 resistance. From there, pullback likely which should be buyable. Bulls must hold 3870 today though or we sell direct $SPX
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Adam Mancini
 
@AdamMancini4
· Feb 6
Have a great weekend! Only pattern to watch in #ES_F is a textbook "megaphone" controlling all action since Jan 5 Plan next week: Resistance/target = 3920. Thats pullback zone with 3870 then 3830 supports. They hold, its sets up major breakout to 4000 & 4100. Details below $SPX


#25 dTraderB

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Posted 09 February 2021 - 06:42 AM

We're near resistance of the only pattern that matters in #ES_F - a month long "megaphone" ~3920 & my target. Resistance of this pattern produced every sell so far in 2021 and if bears to cool this off its there. Breakout likely to 4k then 4100 after any initial pullback $SPX


#26 dTraderB

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Posted 09 February 2021 - 06:43 AM

Those levels ...

 

Free trade plan: 1. Pivot is at 3886 2. I have option of buying dip into 86-88 zone (now 3912) 3. Don’t want longs below 3886 as it exposes 3845-3852
 


#27 dTraderB

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Posted 09 February 2021 - 06:45 AM

INFLATION??  overheating?  where? for decades they are looking, yearning, predicting it...

 

The #Fed #Trap "BofA revised its #GDP forecast higher and now expects the economy to overheat next year at #full #employment, triggering #inflation."

Edited by dTraderB, 09 February 2021 - 06:45 AM.


#28 dTraderB

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Posted 09 February 2021 - 06:46 AM

If Deutsche Bank is correct nominal #GDP is about to rise well above borrowing #costs. As shown, while this is certainly not unprecedented, it reverses quickly as higher #rates collide with a highly indebted #economy.


#29 dTraderB

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Posted 09 February 2021 - 06:47 AM

IWM tempts me...

 

Quite a wild win streak for the Russell 2000, that basket of salt-of-the-earth Main Street companies plying the real economy. Must be a good economic tell. Oh,wait - now seeing the top index holdings are alt-energy hype jobs, sports-gambling plays and a momentum vax name....
 
Those eight stocks make up nearly 5% of the 2,041-stock $IWM ETF...


#30 dTraderB

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Posted 09 February 2021 - 06:48 AM

RAJ:

 
 
 
This was also based on a dominant "active cycle" that has been in that market in the last year.
 
For any cycle to be "active and alive", it has to have atleast 3-5 recent hits. The result is that these cycles havce an amazing predictive value and accuracy.
 
From the 1/31 T&C Daily Email: "There are several active cycles that are suggesting we rally into Feb 5-8 and see an Important High"
 
Ideally, we are seeing this last gasp rally into 2/8 High+/-4 CD, as the dominant active cycle is suggesting. These cycles are rare finds these days, probably due to manipulation.
 
 
This active cycle has a variance of +/-4 CD and it currently has 8 hits:
 
1. 03/23/20L
2. 06/08/20H
3. 09/02/20H
4. 09/24/20L
5. 10/12/20H
6. 10/30/20L
7. 01/04/21L
8. 01/15/21L
9. 02/08/21H
 
The active cycle is next due: 2/8/21H+/-4 CD, so this could stretch into 2/12 and if this cycle remains correct, this should be the major High of the year.
 
 
 
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