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THE PRIMARY WAVE THREE thread and finding the Intermediate wave TWO corrective low


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#1 senorBS

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Posted 05 March 2021 - 02:27 PM

OK, first of all we NEED A NEW THREAD so here it is! After much chart reading I now believe the 2016 rally in the MINERS was PRIMARY wave I, in stuff like GDXJ/GDX PRIMARY wave II bottomed in March of last year. The rally to the August 2020 highs was Intermediate wave 1 of Primary wave III, therefore what we are now trying to identify is an Intermediate wave 2 bottom - may individual stocks have already done 50% or .618 retracements, and GDX for example pretty much tagged its 50% retrace at this weeks low. GDXJ's 50% retrace is 42.73 - today's low (decline low so far) was 44. Please note that the March 2020 low in HUI and XAU did not, but came close to, taking out their respective 2018 lows - IMO for ALL PRACTICAL purposes it does not matter - the rally from either the 2018 or 2020 low in those indices is IMO best counted as Intermediate wave 1 of PRIMARY wave III.

     The difficult job now is trying to identify the final corrective low of this INT wave 2 - I cannot rule out another 5-10% lower, but I also cannot rule out we have bottomed in some stuff like NEM already and maybe some other things go a bit lower like we say today in GDXJ with a marginal new decline low at 44. Pretty much all the necessary ingredients are in place in my view, its always hard to find the final low. Overall I feel downside risk is limited to 5-10% and IF and I stress IF my wave interpretation is correct there is 100% or more upside and perhaps a lot more from these lows. Keep in mind Int wave 1 took GDX from 16 to 46, wave 3's are usually larger so imagine where wave 3 in GDX might go. 

     And SILVER and SILJ which topped last will likely bottom last this go around. Silver has a bit of a different count as it MAJOR bottom was actually registered last March from the 2011 top as it took out the 2016 low and bottomed at 11.63 - the recent rally to $30 IMO completed PRIMARY wave I, we are now in a PRIMARY wave 2 correction which could be on the shallow side or "might" reach prev 4th wave support at the $22 area. However, I currently think unless we see a general mkt crash from here SILVER will likely not reach the $22 area. Also SILJ is now in perfect sync with GDX with the 2016 rally being PRIMARY wave I, then almost a full PRIMARY wave II retrace to the March 2020 crash low and VERY interestingly a big 5 up to the very recent Feb high at 18.84 for Int wave 1 - what is so KEY about that huge 5 up is that it did not go above the PRIMARY wave I high in 2016 at 19.78!!!! 

 

CAVEATS: Wave work or any mkt forecasting is a best guess. And why I very much like the work I have done, I and everyone else should be aware it could simply be DEAD WRONG. So I hope you enjoy and perhaps/hopefully benefit from this exercise, but as always DO YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE!!!!!!!! 

 

SENOR

      

 

 



#2 senorBS

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Posted 05 March 2021 - 02:39 PM

Earlier today I bought some FNV/GDXJ/KL/WDOFF/SAND/NEM as I start building a portfolio again, am around 20% long here and for now am comfortable with that as I look for signs we may yet go lower or we see more evidence of a final low.  Best

 

Senor



#3 Smithy

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Posted 05 March 2021 - 03:15 PM

WOW!  The Gospel According to Senor!  I like it!

 

Senor, a question - you say SILJ  not making a new high is key - is that because it makes a 6 year triangle?



#4 senorBS

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Posted 05 March 2021 - 03:31 PM

WOW!  The Gospel According to Senor!  I like it!

 

Senor, a question - you say SILJ  not making a new high is key - is that because it makes a 6 year triangle?

NO tri, IMO what's so bullish is that SILJ has that big 5 up NOT to a new high above 2016 high - therefore it cannot be any impt completing/ending pattern. It's therefore IMO most likely an initial move of a much larger one (Prmary III IMO), That's how I look at it FWIW

 

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#5 linrom1

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Posted 05 March 2021 - 03:38 PM

Miners rallied with market. With the exception of NEM, they couldn't find their way out of a paper bag. Silver is heading lower.


Edited by linrom1, 05 March 2021 - 03:41 PM.


#6 senorBS

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Posted 05 March 2021 - 04:08 PM

Miners rallied with market. With the exception of NEM, they couldn't find their way out of a paper bag. Silver is heading lower.

As I said, silver last to top and likely last to bottom with easily IMO highest downside risk at this time. If it does more of a full correction could easily test 22 area. If that happens I expect gold miners to decline further but hold up a lot better percentage wise. NO way yet we can come close to having any confidence a final low is in place. I am in slow accumulation mode into weakness in stocks that I see as having the lower downside risk, we see

 

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#7 JGUITARSLIM

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Posted 05 March 2021 - 06:06 PM

Miners rallied with market. With the exception of NEM, they couldn't find their way out of a paper bag. Silver is heading lower.

As I said, silver last to top and likely last to bottom with easily IMO highest downside risk at this time. If it does more of a full correction could easily test 22 area. If that happens I expect gold miners to decline further but hold up a lot better percentage wise. NO way yet we can come close to having any confidence a final low is in place. I am in slow accumulation mode into weakness in stocks that I see as having the lower downside risk, we see
 
Senor

Completely agree. Rotated out of junior silver miners into large gold miners past week. Still 33% long looking to add on further weakness which I expect to be very limited at this juncture.

#8 Smithy

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Posted 05 March 2021 - 06:28 PM

One more question Senor: do you have the spot gold peak at $2,075 in August of last year as end of Primary 1, or peak of Int 3?



#9 senorBS

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Posted 05 March 2021 - 07:13 PM

One more question Senor: do you have the spot gold peak at $2,075 in August of last year as end of Primary 1, or peak of Int 3?

Gold's count can be interpreted at least a few different bullish ways and I am not going to spend much time on it, IMO silver is simply 5 up from March 2020 below 12 to the  recent high near 30. I think keeping it simple here is paramount and now we are on the hunt for signs the correction has ended, and like I said we could still work lower

 

Senor


Edited by senorBS, 05 March 2021 - 07:20 PM.


#10 Chilidawgz

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Posted 05 March 2021 - 09:18 PM

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