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THE PRIMARY WAVE THREE thread and finding the Intermediate wave TWO corrective low


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#11 dougie

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Posted 06 March 2021 - 01:13 PM

OK, first of all we NEED A NEW THREAD so here it is! After much chart reading I now believe the 2016 rally in the MINERS was PRIMARY wave I, in stuff like GDXJ/GDX PRIMARY wave II bottomed in March of last year. The rally to the August 2020 highs was Intermediate wave 1 of Primary wave III, therefore what we are now trying to identify is an Intermediate wave 2 bottom - may individual stocks have already done 50% or .618 retracements, and GDX for example pretty much tagged its 50% retrace at this weeks low. GDXJ's 50% retrace is 42.73 - today's low (decline low so far) was 44. Please note that the March 2020 low in HUI and XAU did not, but came close to, taking out their respective 2018 lows - IMO for ALL PRACTICAL purposes it does not matter - the rally from either the 2018 or 2020 low in those indices is IMO best counted as Intermediate wave 1 of PRIMARY wave III.

     The difficult job now is trying to identify the final corrective low of this INT wave 2 - I cannot rule out another 5-10% lower, but I also cannot rule out we have bottomed in some stuff like NEM already and maybe some other things go a bit lower like we say today in GDXJ with a marginal new decline low at 44. Pretty much all the necessary ingredients are in place in my view, its always hard to find the final low. Overall I feel downside risk is limited to 5-10% and IF and I stress IF my wave interpretation is correct there is 100% or more upside and perhaps a lot more from these lows. Keep in mind Int wave 1 took GDX from 16 to 46, wave 3's are usually larger so imagine where wave 3 in GDX might go. 

     And SILVER and SILJ which topped last will likely bottom last this go around. Silver has a bit of a different count as it MAJOR bottom was actually registered last March from the 2011 top as it took out the 2016 low and bottomed at 11.63 - the recent rally to $30 IMO completed PRIMARY wave I, we are now in a PRIMARY wave 2 correction which could be on the shallow side or "might" reach prev 4th wave support at the $22 area. However, I currently think unless we see a general mkt crash from here SILVER will likely not reach the $22 area. Also SILJ is now in perfect sync with GDX with the 2016 rally being PRIMARY wave I, then almost a full PRIMARY wave II retrace to the March 2020 crash low and VERY interestingly a big 5 up to the very recent Feb high at 18.84 for Int wave 1 - what is so KEY about that huge 5 up is that it did not go above the PRIMARY wave I high in 2016 at 19.78!!!! 

 

CAVEATS: Wave work or any mkt forecasting is a best guess. And why I very much like the work I have done, I and everyone else should be aware it could simply be DEAD WRONG. So I hope you enjoy and perhaps/hopefully benefit from this exercise, but as always DO YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE!!!!!!!! 

 

SENOR

      

 

 

why not make wave ii low August 2018?


Edited by dougie, 06 March 2021 - 01:13 PM.


#12 senorBS

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Posted 06 March 2021 - 02:48 PM

 

OK, first of all we NEED A NEW THREAD so here it is! After much chart reading I now believe the 2016 rally in the MINERS was PRIMARY wave I, in stuff like GDXJ/GDX PRIMARY wave II bottomed in March of last year. The rally to the August 2020 highs was Intermediate wave 1 of Primary wave III, therefore what we are now trying to identify is an Intermediate wave 2 bottom - may individual stocks have already done 50% or .618 retracements, and GDX for example pretty much tagged its 50% retrace at this weeks low. GDXJ's 50% retrace is 42.73 - today's low (decline low so far) was 44. Please note that the March 2020 low in HUI and XAU did not, but came close to, taking out their respective 2018 lows - IMO for ALL PRACTICAL purposes it does not matter - the rally from either the 2018 or 2020 low in those indices is IMO best counted as Intermediate wave 1 of PRIMARY wave III.

     The difficult job now is trying to identify the final corrective low of this INT wave 2 - I cannot rule out another 5-10% lower, but I also cannot rule out we have bottomed in some stuff like NEM already and maybe some other things go a bit lower like we say today in GDXJ with a marginal new decline low at 44. Pretty much all the necessary ingredients are in place in my view, its always hard to find the final low. Overall I feel downside risk is limited to 5-10% and IF and I stress IF my wave interpretation is correct there is 100% or more upside and perhaps a lot more from these lows. Keep in mind Int wave 1 took GDX from 16 to 46, wave 3's are usually larger so imagine where wave 3 in GDX might go. 

     And SILVER and SILJ which topped last will likely bottom last this go around. Silver has a bit of a different count as it MAJOR bottom was actually registered last March from the 2011 top as it took out the 2016 low and bottomed at 11.63 - the recent rally to $30 IMO completed PRIMARY wave I, we are now in a PRIMARY wave 2 correction which could be on the shallow side or "might" reach prev 4th wave support at the $22 area. However, I currently think unless we see a general mkt crash from here SILVER will likely not reach the $22 area. Also SILJ is now in perfect sync with GDX with the 2016 rally being PRIMARY wave I, then almost a full PRIMARY wave II retrace to the March 2020 crash low and VERY interestingly a big 5 up to the very recent Feb high at 18.84 for Int wave 1 - what is so KEY about that huge 5 up is that it did not go above the PRIMARY wave I high in 2016 at 19.78!!!! 

 

CAVEATS: Wave work or any mkt forecasting is a best guess. And why I very much like the work I have done, I and everyone else should be aware it could simply be DEAD WRONG. So I hope you enjoy and perhaps/hopefully benefit from this exercise, but as always DO YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE!!!!!!!! 

 

SENOR

      

 

 

why not make wave ii low August 2018?

 

ask in the other thread plase, this is a dupe, and in the other thread ask exactly whick index or commod you are referring to

 

Gracias

 

Senor



#13 dougie

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Posted 06 March 2021 - 05:11 PM



#14 senorBS

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Posted 06 March 2021 - 06:42 PM

Dougie I want you to reread my original post - specifically the part about some indices (GDX/GDXJ) actually taking out the 2018 lows at the March 2020 bottom! XAU and HUI did not but they got fairly close - the KEY for me is that whether you count the 2018 low or the March 2020 as Primary TWO is does not matter in all reality. Maybe 2020 in XAU and HUI were slight failures where GDX and GDXJ did definitely make new lows for PRIMARY WAVE TWO in March 2020. Get past that and focus that all counts are in sync and last August were the highs for INT WAVE ONE. 

 

Senor



#15 senorBS

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Posted 06 March 2021 - 06:46 PM

 

One more question Senor: do you have the spot gold peak at $2,075 in August of last year as end of Primary 1, or peak of Int 3?

Gold's count can be interpreted at least a few different bullish ways and I am not going to spend much time on it, IMO silver is simply 5 up from March 2020 below 12 to the  recent high near 30. I think keeping it simple here is paramount and now we are on the hunt for signs the correction has ended, and like I said we could still work lower

 

Senor

 

OK in looking at gold itself basis daily and weekly charts I can very easily see a corrective bounce next week up toward 1740-1760 and then perhaps another leg down to set up potential daily and weekly divergences in gold and have better looking "completion" patterns there. I expect gold miners to continue to act relatively well vs gold so new lows perhaps after a bounce but I think modest ones at worst. so getting below 10 even in USERX seems a big stretch to me. Note I am not ruling out bottoms sooner but I think this scenario at this time is reasonably plausible.

Note if any of this happens I do expect SILVER especially to be much weaker and have a larger percentage decline - ideally would like to see silver get down to the $22 "area" or even a bit lower. This would really sync up the bigger picture counts and that is likely needed since silver topped so recently in all that FEB speculative crapola, We'll see

 

Senor



#16 jabat

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Posted 06 March 2021 - 07:26 PM

Senor - Thank you for giving us a detailed explanation of the current PM market. Gold has retraced 0.382 ($1685) of the whole move from 1048 to 2079. Silver is very near to its 200ma $24.20.



#17 Russ

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Posted 07 March 2021 - 04:17 PM

From Breakpointtrades.com , note ratio indicator as a key ... 


"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#18 senorBS

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Posted 07 March 2021 - 06:25 PM

 

 

One more question Senor: do you have the spot gold peak at $2,075 in August of last year as end of Primary 1, or peak of Int 3?

Gold's count can be interpreted at least a few different bullish ways and I am not going to spend much time on it, IMO silver is simply 5 up from March 2020 below 12 to the  recent high near 30. I think keeping it simple here is paramount and now we are on the hunt for signs the correction has ended, and like I said we could still work lower

 

Senor

 

OK in looking at gold itself basis daily and weekly charts I can very easily see a corrective bounce next week up toward 1740-1760 and then perhaps another leg down to set up potential daily and weekly divergences in gold and have better looking "completion" patterns there. I expect gold miners to continue to act relatively well vs gold so new lows perhaps after a bounce but I think modest ones at worst. so getting below 10 even in USERX seems a big stretch to me. Note I am not ruling out bottoms sooner but I think this scenario at this time is reasonably plausible.

Note if any of this happens I do expect SILVER especially to be much weaker and have a larger percentage decline - ideally would like to see silver get down to the $22 "area" or even a bit lower. This would really sync up the bigger picture counts and that is likely needed since silver topped so recently in all that FEB speculative crapola, We'll see

 

Senor

 

Gold up $15 near 1712, its VERY early in Sunday trading but this action suggests to me good chance of at least a key trading low in place from which gold can rally this week up toward the 1740-1760 area I highlighted, we see

 

Senor



#19 senorBS

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Posted 07 March 2021 - 08:27 PM

Hey RUSS and everyone else - PLEASE POST IN THE OTHER PRIMARY WAVE THREE THREAD!!! 

 

Can we have THIS thread removed so there is only one?

 

Senor



#20 dougie

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Posted 07 March 2021 - 08:38 PM

a short term bounce then 2 weeks down into April IMO