OK, first of all we NEED A NEW THREAD so here it is! After much chart reading I now believe the 2016 rally in the MINERS was PRIMARY wave I, in stuff like GDXJ/GDX PRIMARY wave II bottomed in March of last year. The rally to the August 2020 highs was Intermediate wave 1 of Primary wave III, therefore what we are now trying to identify is an Intermediate wave 2 bottom - may individual stocks have already done 50% or .618 retracements, and GDX for example pretty much tagged its 50% retrace at this weeks low. GDXJ's 50% retrace is 42.73 - today's low (decline low so far) was 44. Please note that the March 2020 low in HUI and XAU did not, but came close to, taking out their respective 2018 lows - IMO for ALL PRACTICAL purposes it does not matter - the rally from either the 2018 or 2020 low in those indices is IMO best counted as Intermediate wave 1 of PRIMARY wave III.
The difficult job now is trying to identify the final corrective low of this INT wave 2 - I cannot rule out another 5-10% lower, but I also cannot rule out we have bottomed in some stuff like NEM already and maybe some other things go a bit lower like we say today in GDXJ with a marginal new decline low at 44. Pretty much all the necessary ingredients are in place in my view, its always hard to find the final low. Overall I feel downside risk is limited to 5-10% and IF and I stress IF my wave interpretation is correct there is 100% or more upside and perhaps a lot more from these lows. Keep in mind Int wave 1 took GDX from 16 to 46, wave 3's are usually larger so imagine where wave 3 in GDX might go.
And SILVER and SILJ which topped last will likely bottom last this go around. Silver has a bit of a different count as it MAJOR bottom was actually registered last March from the 2011 top as it took out the 2016 low and bottomed at 11.63 - the recent rally to $30 IMO completed PRIMARY wave I, we are now in a PRIMARY wave 2 correction which could be on the shallow side or "might" reach prev 4th wave support at the $22 area. However, I currently think unless we see a general mkt crash from here SILVER will likely not reach the $22 area. Also SILJ is now in perfect sync with GDX with the 2016 rally being PRIMARY wave I, then almost a full PRIMARY wave II retrace to the March 2020 crash low and VERY interestingly a big 5 up to the very recent Feb high at 18.84 for Int wave 1 - what is so KEY about that huge 5 up is that it did not go above the PRIMARY wave I high in 2016 at 19.78!!!!
CAVEATS: Wave work or any mkt forecasting is a best guess. And why I very much like the work I have done, I and everyone else should be aware it could simply be DEAD WRONG. So I hope you enjoy and perhaps/hopefully benefit from this exercise, but as always DO YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE!!!!!!!!
why not make wave ii low August 2018?
Edited by dougie, 06 March 2021 - 01:13 PM.