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THE PRIMARY WAVE THREE thread and finding the Intermediate wave TWO corrective low


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#2471 senorBS

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Posted 16 February 2022 - 11:55 AM

Barrick gold earnings beat, billion share buyback, increased divvy - stock up over 7% tearing the bears/shorts a new onepurebs.gif

 

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#2472 linrom1

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Posted 16 February 2022 - 12:13 PM

OpEX on Fri, could be they want to cash.



#2473 senorBS

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Posted 16 February 2022 - 12:21 PM

OpEX on Fri, could be they want to cash.

unless miners today turn down hard its a very bullish looking session IMO with stuff like HUI/XAU (GDX joining) accelerating up and away from breakout above 200-day MA - others that are lagging should follow

 

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#2474 linrom1

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Posted 16 February 2022 - 12:44 PM

Gold is moving up on very marginal volume with modest increase in Open Interest. There just aren't many sellers at these levels especially with the geopolitical situation. If this is genuine bull market, you won't miss much anyway becasue we'll invariably get a retest  of lows or just an ABC correction. What Avi is saying that he wants to see 5 waves up followed by ABC correction and then a move above the highs to buy in, which is early stage of 3rd wave.


Edited by linrom1, 16 February 2022 - 12:44 PM.


#2475 linrom1

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Posted 16 February 2022 - 12:48 PM

 

We have a clear 5 waves up which should be peaking anytime or maybe at 1900. That's not a very significant upside?



#2476 senorBS

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Posted 16 February 2022 - 12:53 PM

 

We have a clear 5 waves up which should be peaking anytime or maybe at 1900. That's not a very significant upside?

IMO Gold/GLD is thrusting out of a huge wave 4 contracting triangle from 2020 high, target I have is 2250 area, in a 5th wave it could easily exceed that. I personally don't see 1900 as meaningful but that's me and based upon the larger wave count as I currently view it.

 

I see you have this leg up as a (B), i really don't think that is likely and I personally would not trade it that way, but it's always good to have alternate counts that suggest a different outcome then what on is expecting.

 

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Edited by senorBS, 16 February 2022 - 12:56 PM.


#2477 Russ

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Posted 16 February 2022 - 06:17 PM

 

 

By Avi

No matter how I slice this, the metals market is a complete mess.  Silver still has a downside potential, as presented in yellow.  So, I would imagine much will depend on whether we get an a-b-c corrective pullback in wave 2 in green, and then break out over the high of wave 1 or not.  In the meantime, this is starting to look like a 5-wave decline in metals overnight.  And, if so, I may buy back some of the hedges I was stopped out of last week. with stops at the high from yesterday.

 

He is not alone, lots of guys confused, not long, doubting etc - perhaps as much as I have seen in a long time. That for me is a good recipe for further rally. I like what I see again today, GDX looking very good (as does barrick) but NO complacency from me and I would not want to see any significant downside reversal today - that would likely get me totally out. Long and vigilant!

 

Senor

 

After some consideration I am leaning in your direction now Senor,   Gold in within a dollar of breaking above Armstrong's bullish reversal number and it is breaking out of it's wedge... I will start buying tomorrow most likely.... 


Edited by Russ, 16 February 2022 - 06:18 PM.

"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



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#2478 Russ

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Posted 16 February 2022 - 11:39 PM

Junior Gold's are cheap now and look like they are getting ready for prime time.... 


"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#2479 jabat

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Posted 17 February 2022 - 11:33 AM

I Know It Looks Bullish

By Avi

Despite the metals looking and feeling bullish, I simply do not have a reasonably impulsive structure to follow to the upside.  In fact, both GDX and silver exhibit downside potential structures still.  And, GDX would have to take out Novembers high to invalidate that.

Look folks.  Anyone that has followed me through the years knows that I am not a perma-bull or bear when it comes to metals.  I simply do what the market tells me.  For example, in September of 2011, I went from being bullish to bearish.  And, then in the fall of 2015, I again turned bullish.  So, for me, it is not about anything but what the market tells me.

At this time, I still cannot find a strong impulsive wave count upon which to rely which would make me confident that the next larger degree rally has indeed begun.  While it is certainly possible that it has begun, I just do not have anything to which I can confidently point.

In the meantime, I am still net long in the complex, but I now own some protective puts in GDX (with stops at the November highs), and some GLD protective puts as well.  

In silver, it also has a potential bearish structure, which looks better than the potential bullish structure at this time.  

So, if you ask me, I will tell you that I so want to be bullish this complex because we have had a year and half consolidation, and I have targets still much higher.  But, I just do not have anything upon which I can heavily rely which tells me we have begun that major rally.  So, for now, I still own all my long positions, and am just trying one more time to hedge those longs – especially for as long as GDX remains below the November high.  If that changes, then my cautious outlook may as well.



#2480 senorBS

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Posted 17 February 2022 - 12:19 PM

 

I Know It Looks Bullish

By Avi

Despite the metals looking and feeling bullish, I simply do not have a reasonably impulsive structure to follow to the upside.  In fact, both GDX and silver exhibit downside potential structures still.  And, GDX would have to take out Novembers high to invalidate that.

Look folks.  Anyone that has followed me through the years knows that I am not a perma-bull or bear when it comes to metals.  I simply do what the market tells me.  For example, in September of 2011, I went from being bullish to bearish.  And, then in the fall of 2015, I again turned bullish.  So, for me, it is not about anything but what the market tells me.

At this time, I still cannot find a strong impulsive wave count upon which to rely which would make me confident that the next larger degree rally has indeed begun.  While it is certainly possible that it has begun, I just do not have anything to which I can confidently point.

In the meantime, I am still net long in the complex, but I now own some protective puts in GDX (with stops at the November highs), and some GLD protective puts as well.  

In silver, it also has a potential bearish structure, which looks better than the potential bullish structure at this time.  

So, if you ask me, I will tell you that I so want to be bullish this complex because we have had a year and half consolidation, and I have targets still much higher.  But, I just do not have anything upon which I can heavily rely which tells me we have begun that major rally.  So, for now, I still own all my long positions, and am just trying one more time to hedge those longs – especially for as long as GDX remains below the November high.  If that changes, then my cautious outlook may as well.

 

I like it, a smart guy who does not believe it, just adds to the bullish case for me, really like the price action so far. The past year has just crippled the bulls about believing any rally is real/sustainable. we see

 

Senor