2512 replies to this topic

[dougie]

higher lows in. higher highs awaits daily and weekly.

Mas looking better

[linrom1]

Wow, huge increase in April gold Open Interest even though volume is not that high. Looks like this is in play.

 

Edited by linrom1, 17 February 2022 - 11:13 PM.

[jabat]

Playing The Long Game in Metals

By Avi

For those of our members that we were with us when we opened our doors at Elliottwavetrader over a decade ago, you would likely remember my analysis suggesting that we would potentially see a major top struck in gold in the $1,915 region, with potential for a drop as deep as the $1,000 region outlined even before we topped.  As we know now, the market topped within $6 of my target.

As the market entered that multi-year correction in gold, we remained staunchly “bearish,” until we moved into 2015.  During the last year of the correction, as the market was completing an ending diagonal in the last segment of the decline, I remember lamenting how I could not wait until the market transitioned into the bullish phase we were expecting to begin around the corner, as I wanted to begin trading the market from the long side.  As I noted at the time, I expected to begin layering into long positions as we approached the $1,000 region in gold, and would then hedge those positions once we complete a rally structure, which would have me expect some downside reaction.

Over the last year and a half, we have successfully hedged our long positions quite a number of times.   But, I maintain a bullish main underlying bias in the bigger picture, as I expected that we would continue in the bullish trend to much higher levels before the next “bear market” structure took hold.

Several weeks ago, I noted that I was going to hedge my positions due to the structure I was seeing.   Within a week thereafter, the market invalidated that near term bearish potential, which caused me to stop out of my hedges.  And, as I write this update, there is still one more potential for the bears to take the market down, which had me note to you that I was attempting on last hedging attempt for my own positions.  If this one gets stopped out in the coming week, then I will no longer make any further attempts, as it would make it clear that 2022 will likely be a very strong bullish year for the metals complex.

Yet, I normally like to take aggressive long positions when the market provides me with a clear 3rd wave Fibonacci Pinball break out structure, as it provides me with a low-risk entry for such positions.  But, due to the overlapping structures we have been experiencing in the market of late, it has not provided me with such a low-risk entry.  Therefore, I will not likely be taking any aggressive long positions, unless the market is able to present to me a low-risk entry.  So, I will be resigned to riding the standard long positions I hold in individual mining stocks.

So, let’s review the relevant charts to see where we stand.

In first looking at the GDX 60-minute chart, you will see we stopped dead in our tracks at a pivot region based upon a 1-2 structure within wave [iii].  If the market is going to follow through on a standard Fibonacci Pinball structure, then I would expect a break out through the pivot in the coming week, with that pivot then being respected as support on all pullbacks thereafter.   Should the market break out over the pivot in the coming week, then I will stop out of the GDX hedges I own.  I would only consider moving back into those hedges if we were to see a clear 5-wave break down below the pivot thereafter.   And, should the market continue to move higher, I will raise our pivot support.

As far as the GLD chart is concerned, I think the daily chart attached is the clearest picture I can present at this time.  While the structure has been quite complex to date, we are at a clearly important juncture.   We have just struck the bottom of a pivot, which is based upon a wave i-ii structure presented as shown on the daily chart.  That means that if the market is able to see a direct break out through the pivot, it makes it likely that we are in the heart of wave 3 of iii, and I will exit my hedges on GLD at that time.

Therefore, a break out through the 180 region on GLD will set the 177 region as our support, and we should be looking higher to complete waves iii, iv and iv in the coming year or so, pointing us up towards the 220-230 region.

Yet, this now brings me to the problem child – silver.  While I have issues with the structure of all the charts in their overlapping start to this current rally, silver is the worst of the bunch.   The rally off the December low still looks like a rather clear 3-wave structure.  So, either we are about to turn down hard in silver, as presented by the yellow count, or the market may be tracing out a diagonal to the upside.  And, within that diagonal, we are setting up a 1-2 break out structure within a c-wave higher.

To be honest, that initial 3-wave structure off the December lows in silver is what concerns me enough to not do anything aggressive on the upside in the complex, but I am still going to ride my regular individual long positions if we do continue with this break out.  Keep in mind, I am only speaking of aggressive (options or 3X funds) long positions.  I will only enter those types of positions if I have a high confident, low-risk entry within a standard Fibonacci Pinball structure.  For all the reasons I have been presenting herein, as well in many prior weeks, the structure is no where near confident enough to support such an aggressive trade, at least based upon my experience trading metals.  

So, the coming week or two will likely be quite instructive for me as to whether I simply ride the bull-train over the rest of 2022, or if we have more corrective downside action still to be seen before the next bull phase finally takes hold. 

[senorBS]

I continue to like the action and do think we should and need to move strongly higher over the next several days if bullish outlook is correct

 

Senor

[Smithy]

Silver leading gold. Waiting has been killing me.

[Smithy]

Money supply M2 has the best correlation to precious metals.

 

 

[senorBS]

I continue to like the action and do think we should and need to move strongly higher over the next several days if bullish outlook is correct

 

Senor

GDXJ should (if bullish of course) breakout out decisively here IMO, need to see a rapid move to 47 area and perhaps as high as 53-54 over next several weeks, we see

 

Senor

[Smithy]

Thanks Senor. 

 

A few of the pundits (David Hickson, Eric Hadik , Chris Vermulen) have independently arrived at an 18 month cycle high in gold due this or next week. I'm leaning towards ignoring it and relying on the longer term gold bullish breakout pattern. Trading in and out of an upmove can be tricky and one can get left behind.

[hhh]

Caution here, GDXJ just completed a bearish bat (or some other species, I've lost count) over the last week. Should pull back to T1: 43.04 or T2: 42.61.

[senorBS]

Thanks Senor. 

 

A few of the pundits (David Hickson, Eric Hadik , Chris Vermulen) have independently arrived at an 18 month cycle high in gold due this or next week. I'm leaning towards ignoring it and relying on the longer term gold bullish breakout pattern. Trading in and out of an upmove can be tricky and one can get left behind.

Obviously with the difficult metals market we have had for a long time I will rule nothing out and assume nothing, for me I will do my best to follow the charts and try to discern what they imply, for now the upside IMO deserves the benefit of doubt and it "appears" we have or are in the process of breaking out of the big time sideways pattern, if correct that IMO does not imply a top but instead a large up move in time and price. Have never been much of a cycle guy - perhaps there cycle is a low instead of a high? we see

 

add on: Just looked at the weekly and monthly miner chart/technicals - really difficult for me to think a high here/soon vs what appears a mkt finally likely turning higher after an extended decline/bear mkt from the Aug 2020 highs.

 

Senor

Edited by senorBS, 23 February 2022 - 12:49 PM.