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THE PRIMARY WAVE THREE thread and finding the Intermediate wave TWO corrective low


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#31 JGUITARSLIM

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Posted 08 March 2021 - 04:38 PM

Golf daily and weekly RSI currently the lowest/most oversold since the 2018 bottom, can still go lower, just perspective on how this IMO likely fits with a large Intermediate wave 2 likely in its latter stages. BTW I am about 20% long in miners only
 
Senor


Im still 33% long miners looking to add on any further weakness . We are in very late stages of this correction!

#32 senorBS

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Posted 08 March 2021 - 05:28 PM

 

Golf daily and weekly RSI currently the lowest/most oversold since the 2018 bottom, can still go lower, just perspective on how this IMO likely fits with a large Intermediate wave 2 likely in its latter stages. BTW I am about 20% long in miners only
 
Senor


Im still 33% long miners looking to add on any further weakness . We are in very late stages of this correction!

 

agree, just being cautious as we could still see lower prices, will get more agressive when I get an impulsive looking rally off an important low. Big money stuff like NM IMO is being accumulated, trading well past several days with gold making lower lows

 

Senor



#33 dougie

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Posted 08 March 2021 - 07:10 PM

Curious: when someone say they are 20% long miners, does that mean 20% of the maximum you would invest in this sector, or 20% of your trading capitol, or 20% of your net worth?



#34 senorBS

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Posted 08 March 2021 - 07:19 PM

Curious: when someone say they are 20% long miners, does that mean 20% of the maximum you would invest in this sector, or 20% of your trading capitol, or 20% of your net worth?

For me its 20% of all funds I have dedicated to market accts, that includes Pension/IRA/personal

 

and BTW :for me" I almost never go more than 60-70% long and never use leverage/margin

 

Senor


Edited by senorBS, 08 March 2021 - 07:20 PM.


#35 JGUITARSLIM

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Posted 08 March 2021 - 07:53 PM

Curious: when someone say they are 20% long miners, does that mean 20% of the maximum you would invest in this sector, or 20% of your trading capitol, or 20% of your net worth?


For me thats percentage of total amount I use to personally trade with which excludes retirement accounts like 401k etc

#36 jabat

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Posted 08 March 2021 - 08:36 PM

Eric Hadik - March 4

Gold Cycles, Interest Rates, US Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Oil – HoweStreet



#37 Russ

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Posted 08 March 2021 - 11:43 PM

a short term bounce then 2 weeks down into April IMO

You may be right,  I had rejected this silver chart before because of what Eric Hadik was saying that the low would come in Feb but all that has been blown away. Chart is projecting the final low for early April. My dollar chart has projected for several years that the dollar index would bottom in Feb. 2021, it's a long signal which gives it lots of power. Armstrong had said before that Gold and the Stock Market could rise into 2032.95 with the dow getting up to the 60,000 area but 40 being the next target.   

 


"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



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#38 Russ

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Posted 09 March 2021 - 12:24 AM

 

Curious: when someone say they are 20% long miners, does that mean 20% of the maximum you would invest in this sector, or 20% of your trading capitol, or 20% of your net worth?

For me its 20% of all funds I have dedicated to market accts, that includes Pension/IRA/personal

 

and BTW :for me" I almost never go more than 60-70% long and never use leverage/margin

 

Senor

 

If I feel my signal is strong and correct I throw the kitchen sink at it, usually over 90% long of the money I have in my brokerage with a leveraged fund like nugt, jnug and now the new one gdxu or gdxd etc. I don't like holding individual stocks as it takes more effort to research each stock and understand it's fundamentals, index funds gives some safety because you get all the top stocks.  Soros once said he was a billionaire because he was greedier than most but it's also true the more you have the more nerve it takes to put everything into a trade and of course if you get a drawdown it requires some strong nerves to handle it. There used to be a fund manager on the old Compuserve forum in the 1990's called Michael Lipschutz, he used advance decline oscillators to trade s&p futures, he would take big drawdowns if he thought he was right, requires a strong stomach and heart as your blood pressure goes through the roof, he talked about how it was like looking at a school of fish with the A/D showing when the school was starting to change direction, perhaps the way Newmont is not making new lows right now, the strongest stock is the leader.   The more things you are holding the more time it takes to manage it all too. I got nervous last friday and sold everything with a small profit.  


Edited by Russ, 09 March 2021 - 12:27 AM.

"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#39 CHAx

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Posted 09 March 2021 - 08:23 AM

Overnight action looking good for Senor's call. 

 

 

The "tell" has been the GDX last 4 sessions diverging from /GC.  Just like earlier in the year the GDX was refusing to rally when /GC was acting well.   But I suppose other tells include the extreme oversold condition and bearish sentiment extremes.

 

 

I do wonder if this marks the end of the IT decline.  Senor looking for more downside after 1740-1760 followed by new lows?  I think I favor something more like ~1730, test back down to ~1700 and then a hard rally to test ~1780-1800 breakdown area.


Edited by CHAx, 09 March 2021 - 08:28 AM.


#40 senorBS

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Posted 09 March 2021 - 09:19 AM

Overnight action looking good for Senor's call. 

 

 

The "tell" has been the GDX last 4 sessions diverging from /GC.  Just like earlier in the year the GDX was refusing to rally when /GC was acting well.   But I suppose other tells include the extreme oversold condition and bearish sentiment extremes.

 

 

I do wonder if this marks the end of the IT decline.  Senor looking for more downside after 1740-1760 followed by new lows?  I think I favor something more like ~1730, test back down to ~1700 and then a hard rally to test ~1780-1800 breakdown area.

Senor is uncertain here and open minded as to whether we have made a final bottom or instead will decline again after a decent corrective rally for several days perhaps. Silver remains the one chart that has me "leaning" to the further decline after this bounce plays out, keep in mind I think silver very recently ended Primary wave I at the 30 area - that was from the 11.63 March 2020 bottom - so a correction of that huge rally needs to occur. Note a 38% retrace in silver is near 23 and major chart support near 22 and so far the decline low the other day was near 25 - now it could do a shallower decline and chart structure IMO does allow for a low at 25 but I can't have any confidence in that at all at this time. I think we all should remain open minded and lets see how this rally unfolds off.

 

Senor