104 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

Took a long restful rest this weekend, back to frenetic trading since markets opened earlier. 

3 NQ LONGs and 2 NQ SHORT trades 

1 NQ HEDGE SHORT @ 12705.25

 

Current positions:

1000 QQQ

40 QQQ Calls

2 NQ HEDGE SHORT

 

May close 1 NQ HEDGE SHORT below 12500 if traded overnight if  BUY LIMIT CLOSE order filled at 12490

 

 

 

 

[dTraderB]

Sentiment Speaks: Yet Another Bubble And Crash Article

Mar. 07, 2021 8:00 AM ETDDM, DIA, DOG...85 Comments61 Likes

Summary

• I can no longer count all the articles coming out calling the market names and expecting a crash.
• We are still in a bull market which can last a few more years.
• Once this current pullback runs its course, we are setting up for our next rally to 4300SPX.

https://seekingalpha...d-crash-article

[dTraderB]

If it is 1.5% yield on the 10yr will cause the market to crash then I will buy all the way down to that crash bottom

BUT, soon 1.5% yield in the 10yr will be nothing to scream & shout about

FED will not panic with the markets near record highs, good time to let it pull back 5 to 10%

Economy needs a 3 % "high" inflation 

 

Market Stumbles As Rising Rates Undermine Outlooks 03-05-21

Mar. 07, 2021 4:27 PM ETBIL, DDM, DFVL...10 Comments16 Likes

Summary

• The good news is Friday's mid-morning reversal did manage to keep the S&P above the 50-dma support level and money flows positive, albeit just barely.
• More importantly, while the short-term money flow index is very oversold, the longer-term index remains on a confirmed sell signal.
• Given that economic growth is debt-supported, rate increases have an almost immediate negative impact.

Market Review & Update

Sometimes, things don't work out "exactly" as we plan. Such was the case last week, as we had expected a reflexive rally following the selloff previously. As noted in last weekend's newsletter:

 

"Currently, the money flows remain positive, but 'sell signals' are firmly intact. Such suggests downward pressure on prices currently.

https://seekingalpha...tlooks-03-05-21

[dTraderB]

SPAC BUBBLE will finally implode later this year

 

Hold on for one more day

Courtesy of Joshua M Brown

Yes I’m quoting a Wilson Phillips song. I don’t know why.

But I talked about holding on for one more day at the end of February at a moment where it felt hopeless to be a responsible, diversified investor while everyone around you is getting insanely rich buying the craziest sh*t imaginable.

And now a lot of the easy money stuff is being blown to pieces. They take the stairs up and the elevator shaft down.

The SPAK ETF and related SPAC index is now in a 20% plus drawdown, negative year to date and getting annihilated relative to the S&P 500. Of course it is. They were bringing 5 of these public a day at one point during the frenzy and, eventually, there just isn’t enough money available to support all of them – trading at premiums over cash! Are you kidding me?

At the end of February it was really hard to sit tight with a rational asset allocation. It only took two weeks or so from when I wrote Substack Vertigo and three weeks from when I wrote The Big Long for a lot of damage to be inflicted in the wildest parts of the market.

Hope you held on and didn’t bite the lure. Greed is every bit as uncontrollable as fear, it’s just activated by a different part of our brains. Greed and envy and FOMO are all toxic impulses. We must be always on our guard.

Some of this stuff will bounce back but a lot of it won’t. If you went all-in on the SPAC bubble, binged on negative earnings stocks and IPOs and threw money at whatever else seemed to be a one-way rally, well, at least you’re walking away with a souvenir – the experience. Remember what this moment feels like and never forget it. You will see and feel it again.

https://www.philstoc...or-one-more-day

[dTraderB]

Adam Mancini

 

@AdamMancini4

·

Mar 5

 

We're back at 3810 in #ES_F after a nice run. Important to remember that this is the old rising trendline from the March 2020 low that broke-down If bulls can recapture it, it would confirm this pullback is over. Doesnt need to happen today & basing just below would be fine also

 

[dTraderB]

TIC TOC:

Free trade plan 3/8 (Monday): 1. Pivot point is 3791. I want to buy if S&P500 pullback into 3777-3791 zone with tight stops, targets back 3850.

2. However if 3777 gives up, I will want to sell rallies and target 3702.

3. Now 3838. Feel free to share.

[dTraderB]

 

-200 held.... for now

 

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/

[dTraderB]

Quite an active session. 

Placed a buy limit order at NQ 12490 to close one NQ Hedge short

[dTraderB]

Buy limit 12490 filled last night to close one NQ HEDGE SHORT. +215.25 POINTS profit

Will add extra lot to NQ SHORT DAYTRADES and will reopen 2nd NQ HEDGE SHORT LATER, at higher levels
Will buy more QQQ at lower levels

Current positions:
1100 QQQ
40 QQQ Calls
1 NQ HEDGE SHORT

Took a long restful rest this weekend, back to frenetic trading since markets opened earlier. 
3 NQ LONGs and 2 NQ SHORT trades 
1 NQ HEDGE SHORT @ 12705.25
 
Current positions:
1000 QQQ
40 QQQ Calls
2 NQ HEDGE SHORT
 
May close 1 NQ HEDGE SHORT below 12500 if traded overnight if  BUY LIMIT CLOSE order filled at 12490
 
 
 
 

[dTraderB]

Has been an active overnight & morning session.
DOLLAR UP
10yr yield hit 1.6
Crude backed off a bit from year-highs hit last night