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the equinox marks the turn in the pm sector "a new leg higher"


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#1 dharma

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Posted 18 March 2021 - 09:21 AM

today and tomorrow can see pressure, i believe a wave 2, but i think the low is in. if you look at a chart of last year, eg, the 20th marked the low in the pms. i think this year will be no different

i dont know what the significance of the slr  will be in the future, there is alot of talk.

   seems to me , we are very early in the game, the pieces of the puzzle are coming together. it seems cbs are bent on printing their way out of this, they can never leave the markets , and yes the eagles hotel california blares in the background. i am now positioned where i want to be. i believe silver /platinum will be the big % winners

dharma

https://www.yardeni....edecbassets.pdf

 

miners are still very undervalued 


Edited by dharma, 18 March 2021 - 09:22 AM.


#2 gannman

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Posted 18 March 2021 - 10:43 PM

yes look at ssrm chart since jan 5 

 

sure looks to me like this rally since mar 3 is a wave iv of c 

 

and we are in wave v of c now imho 

 

its pretty clear


feeling mellow with the yellow metal


#3 dharma

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Posted 19 March 2021 - 09:13 AM

yes look at ssrm chart since jan 5 

 

sure looks to me like this rally since mar 3 is a wave iv of c 

 

and we are in wave v of c now imho 

 

its pretty clear

that is my alternate count, if  you look at gdx we have now gone above the low of wave 1.  which is why i think we bottomed and either finished wave 1 up and are now in wave 2 . as i can see 5 waves up. i am basing my analysis on the fact that the equinox marks the turn. the caveat is the bonds , rates may have further to go before a top , and right now gold is responding negatively to rising rates. nothing seems crystal clear.. but i am leaning towards the seasonal change. other than yesterday, miners have been quite firm . they lead

dharma



#4 Smithy

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Posted 19 March 2021 - 10:25 AM

So dharma, what is your gold forecast for the rest of the year?  Inquiring minds want to know!



#5 dharma

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Posted 19 March 2021 - 11:30 AM

hi smithy,  i am looking for this bottoming process to result in a bottom for the pms . then a robust rally in gold eg, to 2460. then a wave of deflation . which sets up for the parabolic.  this wave of deflation lasts awhile as cbs throw everything at it. . i see the possibility of a rally which fails in the fall then a C wave which lasts into 2023 . then the blow off which lasts a short period of time w/huge price appreciation.

when mars goes into scorpio in october(western astrology) although the down wave could last to the beginning of dec (vedic astrology) then a B wave rally.  the blue wave will create lots of money printing which will bring us out of deflation. gold will take out its last low 1671  and more the deflation will be scary 

as it unfolds i will try to give updates. for now the inflation will carry gold to new highs.  

 there are renters that are a yr behind in rent . this puts pressure on the owners of these properties. banks will get into trouble it will cause a cascade of problems as banks close. and then the stagflation i have been calling for . 

i hope that gives you some ideas

dharma



#6 Smithy

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Posted 19 March 2021 - 01:20 PM

Thanks dharma. For your $2,460 peak  --  Sept?



#7 dharma

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Posted 19 March 2021 - 04:41 PM

Via ZeroHedge Treasury Injects A Record $271 BIllion In Cash In One Day, Sending ST Rates Negative March 19, 2021 A little over a month ago we explained that in line with the Treasury's forecast for huge net debt drawdown in the current quarter, a record $1.1 trillion in cash and reserves was about to hit the market. Fast forward to today when catalyzed by the latest Biden stimulus bill, this flood has officially begun, and as the latest Daily Treasury Statement showed, on March 17, the Treasury cash held at the Fed in the Treasury General Account dropped by from $1.361 trillion to $1.090 trillion, the lowest since April 2020... ... and a massive $271 billion injection of cash in one day!

DHARMA

no problems !



#8 dharma

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Posted 22 March 2021 - 11:08 AM

time wise we are in a bottoming process, that should end very soon. i continue to think the lows are in , so far the market has not confirmed that thought.    

dharma



#9 stubaby

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Posted 22 March 2021 - 11:53 AM

Thanks for the new thread dharma.

 

I see conflicting patterns - makes me think that the first impulse move either up or down that begins in earnest will be reversed quickly in favor of the real move.  Fundamentals are improving, mainly from a sentiment point of view - would like to see oil continue lower and long bond prices higher (yields lower) - stock market seems to be rotating itself into a parabolic move higher - US Dollar moves are compared to what (it's a race to the bottom)? - until the stock market really breaks lower I am afraid PM's are no better or worse than most alternatives, FWIW



#10 dharma

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Posted 22 March 2021 - 12:01 PM

some sentiment indicators

https://cdn-ceo-ca.s...e-tr2003 11.png

https://cdn-ceo-ca.s...a-tr2003 10.png

stu- i am just keeping it simple at this point. world wide there is a printing fest.  when folks realize what is really happening , and the light goes on , i dont know . but it seems obvious to me  that sometime soon gold will begin its next leg higher.

dharma