2864 replies to this topic

[K Wave]

GOLD AUD one of those charts that potentially looks to be counting down to explosive liftoff.

 

BUT...when in these tight wedgies, what you think might happen, and what actually does happen, can change lighting quick.

 

So...if we do not see the long green ones printing very soon now, and instead see long red ones come out of the wedge, I would not hang around too long, as would be a sign of a huge loss by the bulls.

And these types of failures, when they occur, can lead to Acapulco Cliff Dive type action.

 

Still leaning heavily towards bullish resolution here, but on watch for signs that I am wrong.

 

[dharma]

@ this juncture everything in the world is hanging by a thread.  life as we know it is hanging by a thread.  there is a war and few realize it

i am bullish , but as i have mentioned we are very late in the 2 large cycles in the metals.  so it comes down to was the move to new highs last week a fake out or was it real. 

the markets are a shadow of their self. so one has to  use all their prowess to know.  friday threw a wrench into the bullish case.  i am still positioned but sitting on the edge of my chair.   we may not find out @the getgo monday. 6 day cycle ended in the stock market on friday. its going to bounce next week.  then the next cycle  looks somewhat tame , but as we get into february and so on it gets really dicey for the broad market.   the end result  will be the fed rides in and prints like crazy, that is my best guess , but its effect dont take hold until there is a 20-30% decline in the broad market.  the metals anticipate the feds action and rally but from where. the whole picture is being painted. picasso would be proud.  in the end of this major long term cycle the metals will go parabolic.  between now and then  its  reading the tea leaves.  and is anyones best guess

i for one really appreciate kwaves work. he has been at this a long time.  so i have moved closer to the edge of my seat.

all for now

digesting

dharma

. 

[Smithy]

dharma, what year do you think gold will go parabolic?

[dougie]

 

 

By Avi 12:41 pm

I just got back in and GDX has ruined its Fib Pinball structure.  Again, that does not mean it still wont rally, but the structure of any rally will likely be quite difficult.  Moreover, if this decline off the high this week completes 5-waves down, then I will even be shorting the bounce thereafter.  

So, for now, I am going to continue to look higher and see how this develops, UNLESS this completes 5 waves down.

 

All about whether it can quickly reclaim and hold above 32.

 

IF stocks crash on Monday, then the breach of 32 on Friday could turn out to be very problematic.

 

BUT...if the decline is mostly over as of Friday, and GDX immediately pushes back above 32, then could be off to the races.

 

In any event, am out of metals for now until this sorts itself out. Was not willing to risk a huge gap down on Monday.

Will likely jump back in if futures do not start tanking Sunday night / Monday morning.

 

Check out where silver closed....either backtest and go...or...back below the line, and possible trouble ahead...

 

4 hour...yet another throwover about to happen?

 

 

15 min...or does Silver back test and Go?

 

 

great thinking Kwave!

thanks

i think we are all going to be surprised here.

as in wheels on the bus

[dougie]

@ this juncture everything in the world is hanging by a thread.  life as we know it is hanging by a thread.  there is a war and few realize it

i am bullish , but as i have mentioned we are very late in the 2 large cycles in the metals.  so it comes down to was the move to new highs last week a fake out or was it real. 

the markets are a shadow of their self. so one has to  use all their prowess to know.  friday threw a wrench into the bullish case.  i am still positioned but sitting on the edge of my chair.   we may not find out @the getgo monday. 6 day cycle ended in the stock market on friday. its going to bounce next week.  then the next cycle  looks somewhat tame , but as we get into february and so on it gets really dicey for the broad market.   the end result  will be the fed rides in and prints like crazy, that is my best guess , but its effect dont take hold until there is a 20-30% decline in the broad market.  the metals anticipate the feds action and rally but from where. the whole picture is being painted. picasso would be proud.  in the end of this major long term cycle the metals will go parabolic.  between now and then  its  reading the tea leaves.  and is anyones best guess

i for one really appreciate kwaves work. he has been at this a long time.  so i have moved closer to the edge of my seat.

all for now

digesting

dharma

. 

the metals should have gone down last week imo cycle wise. that they did not is interesting.

and look at MRNA: not a tell?

[dharma]

dharma, what year do you think gold will go parabolic?

the long term cycles bottom in late 2024 , zulaf is a cycle guy . he is watching the same long term cycles that i am

i am going to remain alert and on my toes.   we are very close to the end in this long term cycle on the economy.  

BUT that is when the long term cycles bottom for gold  so , the bull blow off 24-28

we could easily have a rally here to 2500 i am open to that. 

dharma

[gannman]

the problem in the broad market is who wants to be a hero. that intraday reversal last week said a lot 

 

and it was not good for stocks imo.. i am looking at the vix and i think this thing is not resolved until we 

 

have a vix near to 90 fwiw . the leaders coming out of this will be the commodity stocks imho 

[gannman]

here is one that i think my go boil it is showing signs of bottoming here

[K Wave]

As I suspected might happen, Silver not able to hold the trend line breakout.

 

As long as it remains below, extreme caution warranted here....

[K Wave]

Back test of 4 hour line likely bulls last chance for romance shorter term...

 

Otherwise, we end up with yet another ugly throwover in a long lineage of ugly throwovers.

 

Until the ugly throwovers end, bull market not quite read to rock....

 

So potentially very important action dead ahead here...