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Risk Windows for Week of March 22nd


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#1 Douglas

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Posted 21 March 2021 - 03:24 PM

According to my risk summation system, the days this week with the highest risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend are Monday March 22nd and Friday March 26th.

 

Last week the risk summation low on Tuesday only produced  a little flat correction in the rally.  The extremely high risk value on Thursday did tag a turn down in the DJIA.  If it was an important turn, I suppose the little red trend line below should hold, if not, I guess it was just another brief weigh station on the funny money paved road to stock nirvana.

 

BRnliui.png

 

Regards,

Douglas

 

 

 

 



#2 Douglas

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Posted 22 March 2021 - 04:52 PM

Well that crude red resistance line that I drew in the hourly DJIA plot above didn't even survive until coffee time this morning potentially making last Thursday's risk window top catch just a one day wonder.  Now I guess the blue line in the plot below is the one to watch.  Today's risk window appears to have tagged a double bottom and turn up.  If the blue line support fails, the Monday risk window is a dud, but at least it redeems Thursday's risk window.   The only thing that seems for certain is that one of them is a dud.  

 

hkgOsnP.png

 

Regards,

Douglas



#3 Douglas

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Posted 23 March 2021 - 03:50 PM

I dub this thread, colored line du jour.  Today's line is green and should stop any rally if this sell-off is for real.  If the selling's really gonna rock and roll, I guess yesterday's blue should hold the line.  Our original friend, red, might be the next target down.  Given the Fed Head will again be testifying tomorrow, it's hard to get too beared up given his fixation on stock prices.  You just know he'd throw in a little negative rates or print till infinity talk tomorrow if things really start to get out of hand.

 

DTBdDvt.png

 

Regards,

Douglas



#4 Douglas

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Posted 24 March 2021 - 04:13 PM

Today's chart adds two line colors, yellow and purple in the spirit of, (1) if you can't guess correctly, guess more and (2) why would you take market advice from some old fart who just misses his Crayola Crayons. 

 

The purple horizontal line has provided support and resistance several times and if broken now to the upside should end this brief dalliance with the downside.  The yellow completes a three fan line set, which should identify the trend direction, up if broken to the upside and down if its resistance is respected.   The blue and green lines, despite getting no respect early this morning might again be in play as resistance. 

 

Friday is a risk window, so if tomorrow is down, I expect a low to form Friday or an acceleration down.  If tomorrow is up, a top should form Friday or an acceleration up.

 

Zr00AXi.png

 

Regards,

Douglas



#5 jesteronyer6

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Posted 24 March 2021 - 07:11 PM

Those lines will look like pixie sticks in a over bought market that has nothing to back it except pixie sticks.
I love my country, I fear my government.