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Risk Windows for Week of 29 March


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#1 Douglas

Douglas

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Posted 27 March 2021 - 01:43 PM

According to my risk summation system, the days next week with the highest risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Monday March 29th and Thursday April 1st.  There is also a risk summation low somewhere between Tuesday the 30th and Wednesday the 31st.  These risk summation lows have often marked local lows in the DJIA, say from noon Tuesday to noon Wednesday just to narrow it to one day.  

 

Last week the Monday risk window was a dud and the Friday risk window was a day late on the low on Thursday, aka a dud.  All in all a lousy week for the system.  

 

The DJIA did appear to respect the third yellow fan line gapping away from it and temporarily consolidated at the purple support/resistance line which I drew in the hourly plot in last week's thread before shooting higher near the close.

 

MANycVS.png

 

A couple of very high risk, very low probability cycles will turn at the end of the week after next on April 8th and 9th.  They have caught extremely large sell offs in the past but only about once in every 10 times they turn.  The three letter little word that sends men's hearts fluttering this spring time of year might just provide the black swan that brings these cycles into play.  No, it's not sex, it's tax. If in the current discussion for the next multi-trillion dollar spending bill, the Joe currently running the government, smokin' Joe Manchin of West Virginia that is, lets it be known that he's not adverse to raising them for the right package, all those big juicy stock market gains might become a very tempting target.  

 

Regards,

Douglas


Edited by Douglas, 27 March 2021 - 01:46 PM.