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#1 OEXCHAOS

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    Mark S. Young

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Posted 30 March 2021 - 06:57 AM

The Twitterati are Bulled up. Those folks are not "smart money". AAII is Bulled up and they're not all that sophisticated either.  TSP, however, was not all Bulled up, which is interesting.

 

HmeislerTwitSent03-27-21.jpg

(Chart by @MacroPoint)

 

FinTwitBull-BearSpread03-28-21.gif

 

AAII03-26-21.gif

 

I'd say that a pullback would be in order.

 

M
[edit: the first two charts are not my creation. I've inserted credit on the first one.]


Mark S Young
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#2 12SPX

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Posted 30 March 2021 - 07:47 AM

I like the little rocket!! 



#3 jacek

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Posted 30 March 2021 - 11:41 AM

Meisler's poll appears to be trend following rather than predictive, to me.


Edited by jacek, 30 March 2021 - 11:42 AM.


#4 OEXCHAOS

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    Mark S. Young

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Posted 30 March 2021 - 03:07 PM

Meisler's poll appears to be trend following rather than predictive, to me.

Seems like maybe 13/17 times Bullish over 9% resulted in a pullback. That's pretty predictive, no?

I'm still accumulating experience with that poll, to see how it behaves in different markets. But I think that even intra-day moves may fulfill an overly Bulled- or Beared- up reading. I'm going to dig in deeper as I get more data on this. Still, It's part of my "weight of the evidence" currently. One thing I like about this poll is that it's BIG. Large samples in public polls are better.

 

Mark


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#5 jacek

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Posted 30 March 2021 - 06:04 PM

 

Meisler's poll appears to be trend following rather than predictive, to me.

 

Seems like maybe 13/17 times Bullish over 9% resulted in a pullback. That's pretty predictive, no?
 

 

Don't know how to interpret this, probably mostly due to a lag. Maybe taking context into account would clean it up a bit? Also, dT said once that these guys are usually right.
 



#6 OEXCHAOS

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    Mark S. Young

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Posted 31 March 2021 - 07:25 AM

 

 

Meisler's poll appears to be trend following rather than predictive, to me.

 

Seems like maybe 13/17 times Bullish over 9% resulted in a pullback. That's pretty predictive, no?
 

 

Don't know how to interpret this, probably mostly due to a lag. Maybe taking context into account would clean it up a bit? Also, dT said once that these guys are usually right.
 

 

FWIW, I'll fade them more often than not.

 

M


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