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Risk Windows for the Week of April 5th


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#1 Douglas

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Posted 03 April 2021 - 11:56 AM

According to my risk summation system, the days with the highest risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Wednesday the 7th and Friday the 9th of April.

 

This past week's Monday risk window tagged the high for the week and the Thursday risk window tagged a low neither of which were really exciting enough to merit being called a risk window.  I suppose it's something like looking gift horses in the mouth.

 

bI6PTl6.png

 

In last week's post I mentioned a couple of very high risk, very low probability, roughly semi-annual cycles which will turn at the end of this coming week more or less on April 8th and 9th.  They have caught extremely large sell offs in the past but only about once every 10 or so times that they turn.  Lousy odds probably made even worse by the current boundless fountain of FED funny money flowing down Wall Street.  

 

Regards,

Douglas 


Edited by Douglas, 03 April 2021 - 11:59 AM.


#2 LMF

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Posted 03 April 2021 - 04:07 PM

Its been 3 dark candle sticks on the TQQQ monthly chart for Q1.....so it blows higher from here. Thats all I know. History on that kind of trend is predictable. My SPX model has the 200 TD cycle low around the end of the week with Memorial Day. SPX advance decline looking great. What else is there.......

#3 Douglas

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Posted 03 April 2021 - 05:30 PM

LMF, as I noted, it's hard to get all beared up given the flood of funny money on Wall Street, but there are a few nasty charts that give me just a wee bit of indigestion:

 

The SPY on balance volume is diverging with the index.

 

tbZZd47.png

 

The number of NYSE stocks above a 50 day moving average is diverging with SPX.

 

 

twD7O2B.png

 

And the number of new highs on the NYSE is diverging with the SPX.  

 

Hbv2xbO.png

 

A big rally can reset all these diverges or they can simply continue to diverge and not amount to a hill of beans.  You places your bets and you watches your favourite  horses.  The three ponies above all have a gammy leg.  

 

Regards,

Douglas



#4 q4wer

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Posted 03 April 2021 - 11:27 PM

If  it doesn't turn on Monday,  it might be Wednesday.  from there we go down ...  that is my system says.



#5 Douglas

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Posted 04 April 2021 - 04:36 AM

q4wer, in terms of when the next turn down might come I note the decaying nature of the up moves in SPY since January shown below if you're a fool for symmetry like me:

 

ReGSgIm.png

 

15 days - 11 days = 4 days.   Half of 4 days is 2 days.  11 days - 2 days = 9 days.  If the pattern repeats, half of 2 days is 1 day.  9 days minus 1 day is 8 days which means the current rally will top on Wednesday the 7th of April.  And if you buy that, I've got an excellent bridge in Brooklyn for sale that I bought from George Parker at a very reasonable price. 

 

Regards,

Douglas


Edited by Douglas, 04 April 2021 - 04:43 AM.


#6 Douglas

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Posted 08 April 2021 - 03:53 PM

The rally today made crap out of my post immediately above this one since the current move up has lasted longer than the projected 8 days shown.  I was indeed fooled by symmetry.  Tomorrow is another risk window and just maybe it has the chutzpah to stop the current run upward.  Given the dismal failure of the Wednesday risk window to stop the bus, I don't hold out much hope for tomorrows barricade either.

 

Regards,

Douglas