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indicators or intuition ? which is better ?


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#1 andr99

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Posted 07 April 2021 - 04:52 AM

I' m asking myself  what I would do in trading if I hadn' t a good dose of intuition.......indicators alone to me are the right path to failure. I tend to make comparisons between large stocks, indexes, sectors, trying to find a clear pattern somewhere which can indicate me the way and all of that accompanied by just a couple of indicators and a good dose of intuition about the right pattern developing. With no intuition I wouldn' t make a penny. Unfortunately trading to me is not mechanical. Or if it is, I haven' t still found the algorithm driving it.     


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#2 brucekeller

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Posted 07 April 2021 - 06:39 AM

Intuition is only good if there are years of experience behind it. Otherwise what's most newer traders' intuition is basically FOMO and they get burned. Then after they learn a bit, they are permabearish, and get burned.  Maybe finally after that the intuition starts working out. 



#3 andr99

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Posted 07 April 2021 - 06:43 AM

Intuition is only good if there are years of experience behind it. 

 

I agree......infact I' ve been in the business for the last 21 years and probably when I speak I forget to say that intuition comes out of experience


forever and only a V-E-N-E-T-K-E-N - langbard


#4 12SPX

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Posted 07 April 2021 - 08:33 AM

Hmmmm I've been trading for about 40 years now and when I started technical indicators were far and few between.  About the only one I use is stochastics now a little bit for day trading but its mostly all intuition and I think I have done pretty good,,,,, 11 months now straight lol!  I like to take all the new ones with a grain of salt and add in fundamentals to give my intuition a boost sometimes lol!  I personally think my day trading works because I've always gone with "profit stops" instead of losing stops but who's to say, that's just my system.  The only other thing I do go by for indications on the market is my expiration cycle numbers that I calculate at the start of every new expiration period to give me numbers of where the market won't be in the coming months and its done pretty well over the years but even that's old now with all of the new types out there lol!  3rd week options on the SP500 are still the most traded though so I guess there are lots of old people out there lol!!  Anyhow I think intuition is the most important thing and takes years to develop.  I encourage young people to watch the market movements every day to get a "feel" for whats going on.  Sure you'll see runs like we saw for a couple days but we also see the same on the downside.  My favourite saying and never proven wrong so far is that, "the market never goes up forever and it never goes down forever!"  Good trading to all!  



#5 pdx5

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Posted 07 April 2021 - 07:49 PM

I would love to be a day-trader and be glued to the computer screen form 9:30 AM to 4:30 PM daily.

But then I would have missed 5000 rounds of golf at 2 wonderful private clubs, 36 cruises of 7-14 days all over the world, visiting my country of birth for a month at a time, buying and selling houses, cross country drives to visit relatives and attending weddings, playing chess and bridge on-line with people from all over the world, listening to classical music, etc.

 

But I am happy to have lived a better life than I have ever dreamed of for a poor graduate student who arrived with $250 in his pocket and made 5 times more money in stock market than all my paychecks combined for 37 years of full time jobs in America.

 

My trading method is as simple as it gets. Keep money in bond funds until there is a 20% drop in SP500. Then jump in with both feet and cash out when I see 30% profit. With patience it always happens. Then back in the tall grass. Don't need charts or graphs or indicators or advice from guru's.


Edited by pdx5, 07 April 2021 - 07:51 PM.

"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#6 andr99

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Posted 08 April 2021 - 07:39 AM

intuition or indicators ? which is better ? PATIENCE is better. Here in old fu@@@@@ Europe they' ve been accumulating sideways for the last two months, at least the sector where I' m long, so that currently I' m a bit bored......just a bit.....only a BITTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT 


Edited by andr99, 08 April 2021 - 07:40 AM.

forever and only a V-E-N-E-T-K-E-N - langbard


#7 12SPX

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Posted 08 April 2021 - 07:52 AM

OMG 9:30 to 4:30, not a chance!  I remember when I was back east on vacation a few years ago and I had to wait for the open!  Out here on the west coast I'm done most of my trading by 9:00 at the latest and then its off to tennis or whatever for the rest of the day and if theres anything interesting I have my phone lol!!  I haven't stared at a screen since the 1900's lol!! 



#8 SemiBizz

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Posted 08 April 2021 - 07:56 AM

This not an either/or question

 

You need to use both.

 

The indicators can be misleading and sometimes intentionally so.

 

There ain't no such thing as a free market.

 

TANSTAAFM


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Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

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#9 pdx5

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Posted 09 April 2021 - 10:13 AM

intuition or indicators ? which is better ? PATIENCE is better. Here in old fu@@@@@ Europe they' ve been accumulating sideways for the last two months, at least the sector where I' m long, so that currently I' m a bit bored......just a bit.....only a BITTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT 

That is my #1 lesson after trading stocks & mutual funds since 1963. .... PATIENCE!

Let the market come to your targets instead of chasing the markets and making brokers  more rich.


"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#10 pdx5

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Posted 09 April 2021 - 10:24 AM

OMG 9:30 to 4:30, not a chance!  I remember when I was back east on vacation a few years ago and I had to wait for the open!  Out here on the west coast I'm done most of my trading by 9:00 at the latest and then its off to tennis or whatever for the rest of the day and if theres anything interesting I have my phone lol!!  I haven't stared at a screen since the 1900's lol!! 

Well... computer/phone/smart watch are all interchangeable these days.

Tennis is good exercise. and exercise is very important to stay healthy. I spent 13 months living in CA near Sacramento. 

CA is the worst state I have lived in, even more tax happy than Illinois if you can believe it.

But liked living at southern border of WA state. Not as rainy as Seattle, and warmer in Camas, WA.

No state income tax and no sales tax in Oregon by crossing the Columbia river bridge. Our family membership at 2 private golf courses there for 18 years was really great fun. Florida is good as well, mainly for convenience of going on cruises without flights and no state income tax and all other taxes are moderately low.


"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule