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Pretty Much Worthless Risk Windows for the Coming Week


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#1 Douglas

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Posted 17 April 2021 - 05:22 AM

Truth in advertising forces me to admit that lately the risk window system has cranked out one dud call after another and has become pretty much worthless.  In the spirit of if you can't predict correctly, predict often, the days this coming week with slightly elevated risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend are Monday the 19th, Wednesday the 21st and Friday the 23rd.  The Wednesday risk window probably should be stretched into Thursday morning.  This Wednesday risk window is of the type that usually tags a low.  The Monday the 19th risk window is of a type that normally tags a high.

 

Not only did last week's risk windows not live up to their name, but the lovely expanding triangle pattern in the weekly close DJIA that I showed in last week's thread was violated yesterday, so apparently it's a dud too.  Every reversal indicator that I track is being crushed under this  FED/Treasury funny money market juggernaut. 

 

One really interesting development is the lack of acceleration up days when risk window reversals down fail to occur.  In the good ole days when a risk window failed to produce a turn down in the market, the market would very sharply accelerate up caused, I believe, by short sellers being forced to quickly cover.  That's stopped happening.   Evidently not a lot of folks have the chutzpah (or maybe bank balance left) to short this steam roller market when the classical indicator cycles that I track give a sell signal.  In theory this should make any future serious correction even steeper since there will be fewer short sellers covering on the way down.   

 

Regards,

Douglas 


Edited by Douglas, 17 April 2021 - 05:28 AM.


#2 LMF

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Posted 17 April 2021 - 12:41 PM

The SPX advance decline line looks pretty shiny at this point. As Ive noted, the SPX stocks above the 200 day MA looks more like a return to 2013.......while UVXY continues to implode. Yeah we can still have pullbacks, but theyre mostly all buying opportunities. Im still using the end of the 200 trading day cycle on SPX which shows the Friday after Memorial Day for some kind of important low. Every day SPX reaches new ATHs the cycle just gets more right translated. It doesnt have to be exact out to any decimal places at this rate. Naaim and AAII sentiment is not the only thing in town.

One thing makes sense now.......the small stocks can be vaporized so they can raise earnings estimates on the big stocks to the clouds. DJIA SPX and NDX can go to infinity.

Lee

Edited by LMF, 17 April 2021 - 12:44 PM.


#3 Douglas

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Posted 17 April 2021 - 03:36 PM

LMF, looking at the cash market I couldn't find your 200 day cycle landing in early June (is it in the futures?), but the 156 day one shown below lands in about mid-June and has hit some important lows over the last several years.  Of course in this FED funny money market cycles of all sorts are, as you noted, more right translated than Ted Cruz with bottoms smaller than the south end of a north bound ant. 

 

Mky4CvO.png

 

 It certainly seems like a decent correction is more overdue than Godot, but heck if I know when it will show its ugly face.  Given my crystal ball's recent track record, the one thing that I'm definitely sure of is that it won't be when I predict it.

 

Regards,

Douglas



#4 pdx5

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Posted 17 April 2021 - 03:48 PM

The next significant correction/crash/downturn will happen when the covid pandemic is declared over.

Which means the PTB's will prolong the pandemic as long as possible.


Edited by pdx5, 17 April 2021 - 03:48 PM.

"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#5 da_cheif

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Posted 17 April 2021 - 08:06 PM

The next significant correction/crash/downturn will happen when the covid pandemic is declared over.

Which means the PTB's will prolong the pandemic as long as possible.

post expiration adjustment is possible this coming week into the full moon of the 26th



#6 Douglas

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Posted 18 April 2021 - 06:49 AM

I definitely keep track of the new/full moon cycle turns since there's roughly a 70% chance of a DJIA turn, maybe a little one, but a turn never the less, within a day or so.  The Monday the 26th full moon is one of the reasons for the Friday the 23rd risk window that I noted.  Also got to keep an eye out for the werewolves of London.

,

TiAESP5.png

 

Ahhh Oooo!

Douglas


Edited by Douglas, 18 April 2021 - 06:50 AM.


#7 pdx5

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Posted 18 April 2021 - 04:16 PM

Looking at that chart Douglas posted above, I am having trouble seeing correlation between the moon and the DJIA.

But then I rarely learn much from charts which basically are a record of history. Driving while looking in rear view mirror swoon.gif

I just rely on political news. It is easier to predict future events in politics. 


"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#8 Douglas

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Posted 19 April 2021 - 10:54 AM

pdx5, my dot plot of full/new moons is a bit hard to read, a bit like the FED interest rate polka dot plots, but the turn hits shown in the full/new moon vertical line version below are pretty clear.  The red vertical bars are within a day of a turn of some degree, and the blue bars are either misses or very puny turns.  As you can see, a lot more hits than misses.  You don't have to be a lunatic to believe in the moon's influence over Wall Street.

 

6wc3CnQ.png

 

Regards,

Douglas