Truth in advertising forces me to admit that lately the risk window system has cranked out one dud call after another and has become pretty much worthless. In the spirit of if you can't predict correctly, predict often, the days this coming week with slightly elevated risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend are Monday the 19th, Wednesday the 21st and Friday the 23rd. The Wednesday risk window probably should be stretched into Thursday morning. This Wednesday risk window is of the type that usually tags a low. The Monday the 19th risk window is of a type that normally tags a high.
Not only did last week's risk windows not live up to their name, but the lovely expanding triangle pattern in the weekly close DJIA that I showed in last week's thread was violated yesterday, so apparently it's a dud too. Every reversal indicator that I track is being crushed under this FED/Treasury funny money market juggernaut.
One really interesting development is the lack of acceleration up days when risk window reversals down fail to occur. In the good ole days when a risk window failed to produce a turn down in the market, the market would very sharply accelerate up caused, I believe, by short sellers being forced to quickly cover. That's stopped happening. Evidently not a lot of folks have the chutzpah (or maybe bank balance left) to short this steam roller market when the classical indicator cycles that I track give a sell signal. In theory this should make any future serious correction even steeper since there will be fewer short sellers covering on the way down.
Edited by Douglas, 17 April 2021 - 05:28 AM.