Hello all... Did my daily check of the markets... It appears that we have likely have more downside here.. A couple observations...
S&P500 has tested it's 50-day moving average multiple times over the last six months. We just had a test yesterday of the 4rth test of the 50-day MA... Each subsequent test within a the last month increases the chance of support will not hold, so there is a good chance of the break for the 50-day moving average will be broken, and since the 200-day MA has not been tested in the year time the 200-day MA will hold.....
NASDAQ has broken its 50-day moving average moved above and was not able to hold. I do expect the downtrend to continue and the 200-day MA to hold even though given it is weaker than S&P500 I will assume it will overshoot the 200-day MA support by up to 3%....
A high level OEX Put/Call, NAIIM Sentiment, Rydex Ratio, PE/growth and other statistics looked at do show more downside is likely, but not overwealming.... A GAP down of S&P500 and NASDAQ 100 today would likely be a gating factor of a bottom being made, but since we bounced, we will likely end up lower a week from now.
