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Distribution, gentle squeeze, then... is the CRASH imminent?


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#41 dTraderB

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Posted 26 May 2021 - 11:35 AM

The further point about this is that 2% might indeed be a good goal, or it might not. But the Fed has been given its marching orders by Congress. It is not up to the Fed to unilaterally change those orders. If Fed wants a different goal, go ask for one. Until then, follow orders.
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Tom McClellan
 
@McClellanOsc
· May 25
Perhaps you could ask her why Fed officials believe that their goal is 2% inflation? Congress' mandate is "full employment and stable prices". If prices are rising at 2%/year, that's not "stable", just as a house sliding into a ravine at 2%/year would not be considered "stable". twitter.com/SaraEisen/stat…

 



#42 dTraderB

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Posted 26 May 2021 - 11:37 AM

DOLLAR bounced off near important lows ... can it rally here or drop to test 87??

Do YELLEN and FED prefer a lower $  ??

 

The CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio on Monday was the lowest single day reading since April 6, a topping sign for prices. Such low readings did not seem to matter at all during the uptrend from Nov. 2020 to April 2021, but perhaps the sideways move since mid-April resets things.


#43 dTraderB

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Posted 26 May 2021 - 11:38 AM

also watching this:

 

McClellanOsc_1054.gif

 

 

Watching that US DOLLAR INDEX!! 

 

and 10yr yield



#44 dTraderB

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Posted 26 May 2021 - 11:39 AM

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/



#45 dTraderB

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Posted 26 May 2021 - 11:40 AM

McClellan:

 

 It is that message which says that we should expect a pause in the rise of interest rates.  But that pause will only be a temporary interruption of the path of much higher yields in the latter part of 2021 and into 2022.  Remember that yields move inversely to prices, so a yield rise is a price drop for bonds.

 

https://www.mcoscill...interest_rates/



#46 dTraderB

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Posted 26 May 2021 - 11:42 AM

 
 
 
 
 
 
·
May 24
 
 
Five weeks after #MysteryBroker called for a significant correction and a few months of digestion for the market after its massive run, he is sticking with that stance. Notes that the recent churn has been buffered by rotation and expects more defensive sectors to outperform.


#47 dTraderB

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Posted 26 May 2021 - 11:44 AM

I agree with MysteryBroker

SELL IN MAY continues into SELL IN JUNE after MEMORIAL DAY interregnum

 

Replying to
The #MysteryBroker sees inflation pressures continuing a while. Not about the recent spikes in commodities. Broad wagegrowth and rents (which lag home prices by a year and are crucial to inflation calculations) more relevant. Higher yields likely, a challenge for the market.


#48 dTraderB

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Posted 26 May 2021 - 11:46 AM

Put/Call ratio currently .67. Last time we had a reading sub .70 was 4/26 Long way til the EOD but this is a big change in sentiment from a few days ago when folks were still buying puts all over the place.

 



#49 dTraderB

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Posted 26 May 2021 - 11:47 AM

 
$SPX > 4200 = Bullish $SPX < 4200 = Bearish $SPX subsequently zig-zags above and below 4200 too many times to count
 
 
 
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if the market doesn't rally by the end of the week I'm not buying a new mattress over the Holiday weekend


#50 dTraderB

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Posted 26 May 2021 - 11:48 AM

Commodities prices rose, are rising....

 

2020 - there's very little risk of inflation
2021 - we expect increasing inflation to be transitory
2022 - we will use our tools to battle rising inflation if necessary
2023 - we are working to determine the cause of this rampant inflation - the Fed