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Calling for crashes is a waste of time


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#1 CLK

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Posted 01 June 2021 - 07:53 AM

You will be wrong 90% of the time and those are small losses, so when you actually get it right,

you will cover the first wave down, then it will gap down, you will chase back, then it will rally to fill the gap, you are in losses already now.

 

Just buy dips and have 50% cash to buy the lows when it does crash, most likely you will be waiting months/years for it to happen though.



#2 LMF

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Posted 01 June 2021 - 09:46 AM

Its like when flushing the toilet is a better investing strategy. Just about anything beats that.

#3 tradesurfer

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Posted 01 June 2021 - 09:53 AM

It is not a waste of time.  Those who called the crash in Feb 2020 could have made a fortune.

 

The greed and complacency right now is at nosebleed levels.  It is all about offsetting your risk and being able to pivot.



#4 12SPX

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Posted 01 June 2021 - 10:29 AM

It is not a waste of time.  Those who called the crash in Feb 2020 could have made a fortune.

 

The greed and complacency right now is at nosebleed levels.  It is all about offsetting your risk and being able to pivot.

Ya I agree, 1987 you could see it coming, 1997 was really obvious, 2000 the most obvious.  I was a little surprised on the 2008 crash but I was on holiday when it happened so wasn't paying attention so much.  I was calling at the least for volatility to start in Feb 2020.  When you get to nosebleed levels or irrationality, extreme levels in everything they start to happen.  I'm still of the belief we could wake up to a -5% down market for no real reason now so we need to be wary.  Look at today for example, this is our 8th gap open that was sold, not a good sign!   



#5 LMF

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Posted 01 June 2021 - 12:18 PM

I think the 2008 top was the most magnificent of them all. The SPX advance decline technicals were a puke fest everyday. Along with SPX stocks above the 200 day MA. Puke city......

As we now know......the 2020 blowdown was the exact opposite of 2008 in terms of the same technicals. Hindsight is typically really great. SPX stocks above the 200 day MA continues to look something like a breadth thrust right now. It simply cant top out in this configuration. Some of the best numbers in the past 20 years.

Edited by LMF, 01 June 2021 - 12:25 PM.


#6 tradesurfer

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Posted 01 June 2021 - 12:54 PM

Yea it cannot top out but it could do a fast shake down with an intra month low amd then fast reversal up

#7 pdx5

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Posted 01 June 2021 - 05:43 PM

 editing


Edited by pdx5, 01 June 2021 - 05:51 PM.

"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#8 CLK

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Posted 02 June 2021 - 07:04 AM

Still looking for 5200 by year end.

 

https://invst.ly/u-yhg



#9 12SPX

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Posted 02 June 2021 - 07:38 AM

Your way off, my numbers only see 5182.59.  JK, one thing I have learned over the decades is going out more than a month is generally wrong as there are so many variables going on especially in today's markets.  I'll be trading all the way there though if it does get there.  I still have my Barrons Dow 5000 paper though so would look great side by side lol!!! 



#10 PrintFaster

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Posted 02 June 2021 - 03:16 PM

Shorts got roasted, up 62% in one day.

 

 

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