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"NO MORE BEAR MARKETS" -- “Buy the dip because stocks always come back and they always come back soon.”


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 06 June 2021 - 06:43 PM

Only shallow pullbacks and then rally to new ATH, minor pullback, new ATH, according to column at link below

 

NO WAY, they said that in the DOT COM bubble, other bubbles....

 

https://theirrelevan...e-bear-markets/

 

More trading last week than most others mainly because the market moved more than normal, smaller intra ATR, and I continued to 

take profits, ST trading, VST trading.... Friday was the only losing day of the last week but I think the markets will try to rally to at least 4275 to 4300 before any significant pullback so I expect some tough trading ahead as I build a big SHORT position while trying to hedge partially

 

ES HEDGE LONG 4227

1 NQ HEDGE LONG 13760

30 VXX CALLS

32 SPY PUTS

4 mini CRUDE SHORT



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 06 June 2021 - 06:47 PM

TIM

 

SPX/TLT lower high; $SPX higher high = negative divergence short term. Trading range still in progress.
10 hourly average of the TRIN at levels where consolidation for the $SPY $SPX are likely. Open gap near from 5/25 near 415 on SPY possible support area. Consolidation could last into late June


#3 dTraderB

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Posted 06 June 2021 - 06:58 PM

VERY BULLISH POLL! 

It is NOT ALWAYS contrarian....has been more right than wrong but extremes in any S&P 500 poll is a warning flag

 

The results are in! Thanks everyone for your participation!!! This is the highest reading for 'up' since 4/1 when we had 68%.

 

 

@hmeisler

Saturday Poll The next 100 points for the S&P?
 
UP
62.1%
 
DOWN
37.9%
2,922 votes·Final results


#4 dTraderB

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Posted 06 June 2021 - 07:05 PM

Have a great weekend! Deja Vu in #ES_F: From Feb- March it built a big inverse head & shoulders continuation pattern, that led to a 250 point rally. For a month, its doing it again Plan next week: Looking to 4340-60 zone where bears have a shot at selling.


#5 dTraderB

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Posted 06 June 2021 - 07:08 PM

Bidding the market up on a Friday is an expression of investor optimism, to be a buyer ahead of a 2-day period of event risk that you cannot bail out of. DJIA has closed higher the past 5 Fridays (incl. today) and 10 of the past 11.


#6 dTraderB

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Posted 06 June 2021 - 07:14 PM

Where are we in the sentiment cycle? Enthusiasm...for the last 6 months. That takes us into the top 15 stretches of high confidence since 1928.


#7 dTraderB

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Posted 06 June 2021 - 07:19 PM

Another 4400 TOP forecast

--

Avi's EW forecast:

 

Our main support remains in the 4115-4150SPX region, as I outlined last weekend. And, this past week, the market pulled back to within 18 points of that support. As long as the market continues to respect that immediate support, I am looking for a rally next towards the 4330-60SPX region in the coming weeks, at which time, we will raise our support. Ultimately, I see this as only an initial target on our way to an ideal target exceeding 4400SPX later in June.

But, I must warn you. Based upon the structure of the market at this time, even if we do go to 4400SPX in the coming weeks, it will not be an easy climb. Rather, the structure is presenting as quite a volatile one within this segment of the uptrend.

Furthermore, should we complete this structure in the coming weeks, then I would expect a very strong reversal after this structure completes. And, I think that reversal can be quite fast and strong and target the 4166SPX region again. This type of decline will re-set sentiment to the point where we can then substantiate an expectation for a rally to 4600+ later this year.

 

So, in summary, we have entered into a very treacherous market environment, which will likely last over the coming two months. And, I do not see the next multi-month trending market move setting up for several months.

https://seekingalpha...-for-volatility



#8 dTraderB

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Posted 06 June 2021 - 07:21 PM

I do not think the Global 15% minimum Corporate tax is bearish

 

but TESLA ??



#9 da_cheif

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Posted 06 June 2021 - 08:08 PM

so i guess nobody cares what the guy with credentials thinks......



#10 dTraderB

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Posted 06 June 2021 - 08:50 PM

DP ALERT WEEKLY WRAP: SPX and OEX Generate IT PMO SELL Signals
Carl Swenlin, Erin Swenlin |  June 04, 2021 at 07:08 PM

 

https://stockcharts....-and-o-431.html