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Risk Windows for Week of August 2nd And Sunspots


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#1 Douglas

Douglas

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Posted 31 July 2021 - 06:13 AM

According to my risk summation system, the days next week with the highest risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Monday August 2nd and Friday August 6th.  The Friday the August 6th risk window appears to be in a wider risk window pair with Monday August 9th.

 

Last week's Tuesday the 27th risk window tagged a quick, sharp sell off that was immediately retraced and didn't amount to much.  The Friday risk window saw another sell off which actually began late Thursday, the importance of which will have to await until Monday the 2nd's action.  All in all a pretty lackluster risk window system performance.

 

As I noted in a second post this week, the copper/gold correlation with the 10 year Treasury note yield is broken.  Interest rates appear to be forecasting a second half 2021 slow down due, I suppose, to either the Delta Covid variant, the winding down of all the stimulus programs/eviction moratorium or maybe some faint whiff of a September FED tapering wafting from Bullard and others.  The stock market and metals market (hense the broken correlation) so far seem more or less oblivious. 

 

Over the next couple of weeks I suspect either the bonds' slow down warning or the market's ebullience will win out.  Heck if I know which is right, but this folds in nicely with the next 72 week mirror cycle turn which should happen either this coming week or the week after.  Like the risk windows, this cycle calls for a turn not a direction, so if the market is falling going into the cycle window, it predicts a turn up and if rising, a turn down.  

 

Finally, the sunspot cycle appears to have turned up heading into the next peak in 2025.  Many of the global warming doubters are hanging their hat on a very low peak Maunder minimum for this cycle, something much lower than the 120 or so forecast by NOAA.  NOAA provides monthly updates of the sunspot number and their forecast at www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression if you want to see in more or less real time if the global cooling or global warming folks will win this argument. As I understand it, if there's a peak of 60 or less in 2025, go long woolies and long handles, if 120 or more, go long HVAC providers and anything "green". 

 

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Regards,

Douglas