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Risk Windows for Week of August 16th & Still in Saigon

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#1 Douglas



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Posted 15 August 2021 - 07:29 AM

According to my risk summation system, the days this week with the highest risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Tuesday August 17th and Friday the 20th.  


Last week the Monday the 9th risk window did contain the DJIA low for the week, but was not notable enough to live up to the risk window label.  The DJIA did gap up at the open of the Wednesday the 11th risk window, but then just laid there like a lox all day, also not worthy of a risk window label.  Needless to say, not a banner week for the risk summation system.  Just a nice, steady grind north.




Last week should have marked a top of some sort if the 72 week mirror cycle is worth its salt.  Given the tsunami of money flowing from the FED, a catalyst will be needed to turn the market down.  Maybe losing another war like Vietnam to a ragtag army with scenes of helicopters spirting embassy residents out of a capital as the invaders flood into the city like the fall of Saigon will do the trick.  Charlie Daniels's song, "Still in Saigon", has been ringing in my ears all weekend.  More hints in the FED minutes to be released this coming week about tapering might do it too if the collapse of Kabul doesn't. The bear probably can't count on Covid Delta which is now old news that has probably lost most of its punch.