Jump to content



Photo

Death is bullish


  • Please log in to reply
8 replies to this topic

#1 RadioHead

RadioHead

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 63 posts

Posted 16 August 2021 - 02:35 AM

Throughout history of the US stock market, massive death has been bullish.

 

Wars, natural disasters, terrorist attacks, civil wars, pandemics and so on have always been associated with rising stock markets. It is simple: the more people die, the more money is printed, which goes to the banking system and ends up in stock indexes.

 

Right now the new wave of infections and deaths is the best news for stocks. Taliban winning the war can lead to terrorist attacks, which adds to the bullish case as well. Crime wave in the US and the rest of the world helps too. If we get a devastating hurricane or an earthquake, S&P will become unstoppable. A bloody war would propel it to 10,000. 

 

I'm leveraging long this morning. S&P and NASDAQ 100. And don't ask me about stops. Stops are for shorts. You don't need one if you are long these two indexes.

 

2+2=5

 

 



#2 Douglas

Douglas

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,309 posts

Posted 16 August 2021 - 04:13 AM

Buy the sound of cannons and sell the sound of trumpets - Rothschild.  Stock markets are cheap when the killing starts and get expensive at the end of hostilities.

 

The broken window theory of economics  - Bastiat.  GDP, the way it is currently measured, increases after disaster due to spending to rebuild.

 

War is good for business, invest your son - Ginsberg.  Sarcasm by the poet, but unfortunately true. 

 

The above allegorical quotes, unfortunately, support your premise.  But 2 + 2 equals 3 in war because one can get killed.

 

Regards,

Douglas


Edited by Douglas, 16 August 2021 - 04:15 AM.


#3 cycletimer

cycletimer

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 2,533 posts

Posted 16 August 2021 - 02:25 PM

Great insight and so true...and I love those quotes!  It's funny, but somehow we can see the correlation ..... I exited my profitable put options (purchased Thurs & Fri of last week) this morning and splurged, purchased a Sig Sauer P226 Legion, a pistol that's been on my wish list for over a year.  Its seems every time I have a profitable option trade with Puts, I immediately add to my firearm collection.  If you're from the South or from the Midwest (farm country) you'll like this.  If you're from the West Coast or the North, you'll find this appalling, cheer.gif



#4 Douglas

Douglas

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,309 posts

Posted 16 August 2021 - 04:02 PM

Cycletimer, if I was from any further south, I'd have gills.  I could see a salt water bay fed by the Gulf of Mexico from my old office.  I still don't understand pistols.  I can't hit the side of a barn from 10 paces with one.  Also spending all these hours on the key board has made me so weak  that I'd probably shoot my own leg trying to wheel a heavy Sig Sauer at a bad guy. 

 

In my new home in the UK, pistols are strictly verboden.  The good news is gun violence is much rarer, but it does happen.  The most recent mass shooter here used a shotgun since permits for them are easier to come by.  Still, I haven't had pistols pointed at me like I did in Houston since I moved here, and I haven't had to sleep with a loaded shotgun laying by my side at night either which I definitely did in Houston. 

 

I do understand buying such a high quality pistol.  It's buying those puts in a raging bull market that I think is really brave.

 

Regards,

Douglas


Edited by Douglas, 16 August 2021 - 04:05 PM.


#5 pdx5

pdx5

    I want return OF my money more than return ON my money

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 8,008 posts

Posted 17 August 2021 - 08:34 AM

I bought this 9mm pistol 3 years ago and went to gun range to practice.

They give you a paper target to shoot at. I set it 30 feet away and my first attempt at shooting a handgun!

After 10-12 shots, I retrieved the target to see how good was my shooting. It was inside 6" circle!

The only other gun I ever fired was a British royal enfield .303 rifle. 


"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#6 12SPX

12SPX

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 5,026 posts

Posted 17 August 2021 - 08:41 AM

I'd like to get a 9mm keltec sun 2000.  Friend here had one and it was cool.  Folds up to 6 in, he thinks for here its the gun to get because its hard to have hand guns here.  Anyone want to send me one, would rather have it unregistered lol!! 



#7 pdx5

pdx5

    I want return OF my money more than return ON my money

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 8,008 posts

Posted 17 August 2021 - 08:52 AM

I'd like to get a 9mm keltec sun 2000.  Friend here had one and it was cool.  Folds up to 6 in, he thinks for here its the gun to get because its hard to have hand guns here.  Anyone want to send me one, would rather have it unregistered lol!! 

9mm is a good size, not too heavy, yet lethal upto 15 feet. 


"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#8 pdx5

pdx5

    I want return OF my money more than return ON my money

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 8,008 posts

Posted 18 August 2021 - 08:01 PM

Buy the sound of cannons and sell the sound of trumpets - Rothschild.  Stock markets are cheap when the killing starts and get expensive at the end of hostilities.

 

The broken window theory of economics  - Bastiat.  GDP, the way it is currently measured, increases after disaster due to spending to rebuild.

 

War is good for business, invest your son - Ginsberg.  Sarcasm by the poet, but unfortunately true. 

 

The above allegorical quotes, unfortunately, support your premise.  But 2 + 2 equals 3 in war because one can get killed.

 

Regards,

Douglas

 

My favorite quote by Rothschild: I got rich by selling early. 


"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#9 RadioHead

RadioHead

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 63 posts

Posted 18 August 2021 - 11:49 PM

Why are you guys talking about guns? Guns are good. They kill people. The more people get killed the higher the stock market goes.