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spx in blow off phase


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#1 andr99

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Posted 20 August 2021 - 02:22 PM

in my opinion.......I think it will top out in Feb next year and all those who get short now on a longer term time frame than the daily, will be butchered with no mercy. Because I' ve never seen a Long Term top starting a two years or so, bearish market, that doesn' t end with a bloody phase for the bears. The blow off phase is designed to discharge all the LT shorters leaving no one of them alive when the bear market starts. So, the weekly macd is topping, but the index isn' t and the daily macd still has room to the upside. Although the weekly is in uncharted territory, it doesn' t mean it can stay there for some more time. I' ve learned over the years to not get short early and this time won' t be different, imo. But it's just my opinion.....as usual    


Edited by andr99, 20 August 2021 - 02:23 PM.

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#2 LMF

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Posted 20 August 2021 - 02:35 PM

Going back to 2007 good ATHs have been with about 300 SPX stocks above the 200 day MA. Were not exactly even close to that yet.

#3 andr99

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Posted 20 August 2021 - 02:42 PM

Going back to 2007 good ATHs have been with about 300 SPX stocks above the 200 day MA. Were not exactly even close to that yet.

 

I agree and would add that the picture is a lot clearer looking at the European stocks. They all have higher LT targets to get to, before we start talking about an LT top......as you all know, the European stock markets depend on the USA....there's no way they can rise if the USA don' t cohoperate with the bullish case....    


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#4 cycletimer

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Posted 21 August 2021 - 03:32 PM

There will be plenty of trading opportunities between now and the (your Feb time frame).  We will most likely experience a 10% correction in the month of September though I am not planning on going short again (via Put options) until after Labor Day.  Next week will probably trade UP.  



#5 slupert

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Posted 22 August 2021 - 01:35 PM

There will be plenty of trading opportunities between now and the (your Feb time frame).  We will most likely experience a 10% correction in the month of September though I am not planning on going short again (via Put options) until after Labor Day.  Next week will probably trade UP.  

From reading the stockcharts news letter its seems they are a ll beared up. They have some valid conclusions. I think your time frame, the beginning of a correction in mid September is the most likely. participation is lousy and must increase. So, I belive we will see the Dollar top out this week and head South, tech should benefit as well as the Dow. I think by mid-late September. we top out at 4537. (JMHO)