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BULLS buy TAPER dip


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 23 August 2021 - 06:50 AM

In Vacation mode, will attempt to monitor markets with alerts etc

Last week ended with a losing Friday after 4 profitable days

 

Will continue to rebuild SHORT positions with SPY & QQQ PUTS and VXX CALLS

 

Still flat CRUDE & NAT GAS

 

TOM is excited about??

 

 

Two Scorching-Hot Groups Are Set Up For A Significant Decline - SELL NOW
Tom Bowley |  August 22, 2021 at 12:14 PM
 

One of the biggest developments in recent weeks has been the breakout in the U.S. Dollar Index ($USD). I've been expecting it and it happened last week:

9303145d-4beb-4b66-93be-6125d4647a8c.jpg

The black arrows are marking all of the RSI tops at 65 and above and all the bottoms at 35 and below. When the RSI stretches back and forth from 30-70, it's generally indicative of trendless price action. In July, however, the RSI bottomed near 40 and we've seen a breakout. The USD is providing us early technical signs of an uptrend. That's significant because it's confirming my dollar bullishness. I believe the best indication of dollar direction lies in the difference between our 10-year treasury yield ($UST10Y) and Germany's ($DET10Y):

d268445d-5efd-41f4-9d12-11f533736ddf.jpg

The bottom of this chart highlights the positive correlation between the difference in treasury yields (US minus Germany) and the direction of the USD. It's hard to dispute how well these two move together. 

https://stockcharts....are-se-117.html



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 23 August 2021 - 06:52 AM

Delay TAPER announcement, tamper down TAPER talk?

Open Economic Calendar MONDAY, AUGUST 23
01:00    AUD    Commonwealth Bank Services PMI(Aug)     
01:00    AUD    Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI(Aug)         
09:15    FRA    Markit Manufacturing PMI(Aug)         
09:15    FRA    Markit Services PMI(Aug)     
09:15    FRA    Markit PMI Composite(Aug)     
09:30   GER   Markit Manufacturing PMI(Aug)  
09:30    GER    Markit Services PMI(Aug) 
09:30   GER   Markit PMI Composite(Aug)   
10:00    EUR    Markit Manufacturing PMI(Aug)         
10:00    EUR    Markit Services PMI(Aug)       
10:00   EUR   Markit PMI Composite(Aug)  
10:30    GBP    Markit Manufacturing PMI(Aug)             
10:30   GBP   Markit Services PMI(Aug)
14:30    USD    Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Jul)     
15:45    USD    Markit Manufacturing PMI(Aug)         
15:45    USD    Markit Services PMI(Aug)     
15:45    USD    Markit PMI Composite(Aug)     
16:00    EUR    Consumer Confidence(Aug)        


TUESDAY, AUGUST 24
00:45    NZD    Retail Sales ex Autos (QoQ)(Q2)   
00:45   NZD   Retail Sales (QoQ)(Q2)               
08:00    GER    Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY)(Q2)         
08:00    GER    Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)(Q2)     
08:00    GER    Gross Domestic Product (YoY)(Q2)     
16:00    USD    New Home Sales (MoM)(Jul)     


WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 25
00:45    NZD    Trade Balance NZD (YoY)(Jul)     
00:45    NZD    Exports(Jul)     
00:45    NZD    Imports(Jul)     
01:55    AUD    RBA's Ellis speech     
07:00    JPY    Leading Economic Index(Jun)         
10:00    GER    IFO – Business Climate(Aug)         
10:00    GER    IFO – Current Assessment(Aug)     
10:00    GER    IFO – Expectations(Aug)         
10:00    CHF    ZEW Survey – Expectations(Aug)         
14:30    USD    Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation(Jul)             
14:30    USD    Durable Goods Orders ex Defense(Jul)         
14:30    USD    Durable Goods Orders(Jul)         
14:30    USD    Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft(Jul)     


THURSDAY, AUGUST 26
02:00    USD    Jackson Hole Symposium 
08:00    GER    Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey(Sep)         
13:30    EUR    ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts         
14:30    USD    Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)(Q2)     
14:30    USD    Gross Domestic Product Price Index(Q2)     
14:30    USD    Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)(Q2)     
14:30    USD    Initial Jobless Claims(Aug 20)         
14:30    USD    Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average(Aug 20)     
14:30   USD   Gross Domestic Product Annualized(Q2)  


FRIDAY, AUGUST 27
00:00    NZD    ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence(Aug)     
01:30    JPY    Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY)(Aug)         
01:30    JPY    Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY)(Aug)         
01:30    JPY    Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY)(Aug)         
02:00    USD    Jackson Hole Symposium         
03:30    AUD    Retail Sales s.a. (MoM)(Jul)    
  
14:30    USD    Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)(Jul)             
14:30    USD    Personal Income (MoM)(Jul)         
14:30    USD    Personal Spending(Jul)         
14:30    USD    Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)(Jul)     
16:00    USD    Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index(Aug)             
16:00   USD   Fed's Chair Powell speech


SATURDAY, AUGUST 28
02:00    USD    Jackson Hole Symposium 

#3 dTraderB

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Posted 23 August 2021 - 06:54 AM

"Our resistance is the 4450SPX region, support is at 4410-15SPX, and the setup is now in place for the 200-300 point decline I want to see. In order to confirm that we are in the process of that 200-300 point decline, we need to see an impulsive break down below 4410-15SPX, which will make it a high probability we are next targeting the 4240-70SPX region. (Keep in mind that “impulsive” means a 5-wave decline structure and not how fast it moves). If this is not what we see early in the coming week, then the market may try to push to a marginally higher high before turning down again."

https://seekingalpha...re-than-a-growl



#4 dTraderB

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Posted 23 August 2021 - 06:56 AM

That's a big drop....

 

The preliminary Consumer Sentiment survey for August by the University of Michigan showed a stunning drop. Not only is the survey relatively low, it was the biggest miss in 20 years relative to economists' expectations. Granted, this could change substantially by the time the official reading is released in a couple of weeks.

https://www.sentimen...e-on-sentiment/



#5 dTraderB

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Posted 23 August 2021 - 07:01 AM

Have a great weekend! The dip was bought in #ES_F forming a bullish rising channel, but eerie similarity to 2020 when ES surged from mid-June into a Sept top Plan next week: Pullback, if it holds 4395 1 more leg to 4550+ in play. 4395 fails we see 4300 & lower. Detail below $SPX


#6 dTraderB

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Posted 23 August 2021 - 07:03 AM

McClellanOsc_1115.gif

 

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/



#7 dTraderB

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Posted 23 August 2021 - 07:05 AM

"There have been “breadth divergences” galore piling up recently, and there are lots of ways to measure or depict that.  Among these is the indicator shown in this week’s chart, which measures the number of stocks in the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) which are above their own 100-day moving averages. 

In the energetic part of a new uptrend, it is normal to see this measure jump up to a really high level.  Then as the uptrend ages, the component stocks start getting tired before the final index price top, which shows up as a bearish divergence.  We have such a divergence now, and the action in stock prices following the Aug. 16 price top says that it is finally starting to matter."

 

Waning Number of NDX Stocks In The Uptrend
 

qqq_above_100ma_aug2021.gif

 

August 20, 2021

https://www.mcoscill...in_the_uptrend/



#8 dTraderB

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Posted 23 August 2021 - 07:07 AM

 Messy exit but do not think it will get worse than last week
 
Coming up on Is Afghanistan A Black Swan? * And will September be fraught with peril? * With a weakened President and a challenging legislative agenda, political risks might be underpriced in the market.

Edited by dTraderB, 23 August 2021 - 07:08 AM.


#9 dTraderB

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Posted 23 August 2021 - 07:09 AM

When $SPX finally corrects, its most likely to cost both 2 day dip buyers & major top callers: Selloff with a few big trap bounces, into a big low as bear market calls start. Feb 2021 good example. Easy way not to get caught: Trade 1 move at a time, lvl to lvl & let price unfold


#10 12SPX

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Posted 23 August 2021 - 08:03 AM

Think this is going to be an interesting week, not surprised were seeing a bounce here after expiration so everyone can load up on their sold September calls. I know I'm adding to my sold Sept 4550 calls with an average now of a nice even $12 lol!!  My 4600 calls are still barely showing any added premium this morning and may indicate we could go a little higher here just yet.  Getting tempted to resell the Sept 4500 again at $32!! In the end so continuing to build my short, 4432 now....