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Risk Windows for the Week of August 30th


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#1 Douglas

Douglas

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Posted 28 August 2021 - 10:16 AM

According to my risk summation system, the windows in the next week or so with the highest risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend are Monday & Tuesday August 30th & 31st at the front of the week and Friday September 3rd & Tuesday September 7th at the end of the week and into early the week after next.

 

Last week's Monday the 23rd risk window tagged an acceleration day with an opening gap up and a sharp rally higher.  The Wednesday risk window tagged the high for the week and a turn down.  Friday's risk window tagged a sharp turn up after the FED Head, faced with high inflation, decided to just let 'er rip.  

 

Despite the week closing out with the S&P in record territory and a FED pumping with all cylinders, the CNN fear/greed gauge (money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/) is only just poking its head above 50%.  Given the sky high S&P and funny money galore, you'd think it would be markedly higher.  Other sentiment gauges that I track including TSP and AAII are also rather remarkably bearish.  Clearly the wall of worry is firmly intact.

 

IE7AL7U.png

 

The 72 week cycle that I've noted here previously is indicating a turn should occur this coming week.  This cycle has recently fallen on hard times, calling for turns that were, at best, rather tepid.  Given its recent lackluster performance, I don't hold out much hope for a nail biting turn this time either. 

 

Regards,

Douglas  

 

 

 

 



#2 Douglas

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Posted 01 September 2021 - 04:37 AM

Based on the futures action this morning it looks like the first risk window on 30-31 August is a low as can be seen in the DJIA futures plot below.  If so that means the 3-7 September risk window ought to tag a high.  Time will tell.

khTSKYA.png

 

Regards,

Douglas