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It is getting better


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#1 RadioHead

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Posted 30 August 2021 - 06:54 AM

From my last post a couple of weeks ago:

 

"""""Throughout history of the US stock market, massive death has been bullish.

 

Wars, natural disasters, terrorist attacks, civil wars, pandemics and so on have always been associated with rising stock markets. It is simple: the more people die, the more money is printed, which goes to the banking system and ends up in stock indexes.

 

Right now the new wave of infections and deaths is the best news for stocks. Taliban winning the war can lead to terrorist attacks, which adds to the bullish case as well. Crime wave in the US and the rest of the world helps too. If we get a devastating hurricane or an earthquake, S&P will become unstoppable. A bloody war would propel it to 10,000. 

 

I'm leveraging long this morning. S&P and NASDAQ 100. And don't ask me about stops. Stops are for shorts. You don't need one if you are long these two indexes.

 

2+2=5"""""

 

Now we got a hurricane, a new terrorists' threat, fires, September - October bad wall of worry, Fed tapering wall of worry, and most importantly a bunch of new COVID variants.

 

Still long, still leveraged and still think that the Chief is a chicken with a horrible record in bonds. Really brother? Inflationary call for the last 30 years??????????????? You have been thinking for 30 years that inflation will prop up stocks. Deflation did! The money you made in S&P equals to the money you lost in fixed income. You know it, I know it, every sub knows it and every hedge fund who rejected you knows it (including me).

 

and S&P 10K is really close.

 

More top calls please!!!! 

 

2 + 2 = 5



#2 andr99

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Posted 30 August 2021 - 08:41 AM

we' re only missing a giant meteor falling on our heads, but we have all the rest. 


forever and only a V-E-N-E-T-K-E-N - langbard


#3 12SPX

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Posted 30 August 2021 - 08:44 AM

Oh oh, yu realize that 2 + 2 equals 4 actually lol!!  yes.gifswoon.gif



#4 pdx5

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Posted 30 August 2021 - 03:27 PM

Long Term market trends have very little to do with Wars, pandemics, hurricanes, etc.

Those have only short term effect on the stock markets.

The trend is most dependent on monetary policy by FED. 

When interest rates were in double digits, markets were horrible for bulls.

When interest rates are near zero, markets are horrible for bears.

This is so easy to follow based on actual history, it is ridiculously simple.

Ignore the news. It has only short term effects. Watch the interest rates and easy money policy for long term,


"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#5 K Wave

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Posted 31 August 2021 - 08:25 AM

Long Term market trends have very little to do with Wars, pandemics, hurricanes, etc.

Those have only short term effect on the stock markets.

The trend is most dependent on monetary policy by FED. 

When interest rates were in double digits, markets were horrible for bulls.

When interest rates are near zero, markets are horrible for bears.

This is so easy to follow based on actual history, it is ridiculously simple.

Ignore the news. It has only short term effects. Watch the interest rates and easy money policy for long term,

Yep, watching 10 year yield real closely here, as we have reclaimed the huge floor at 1.50, and got the expected back test of the 1.20 area.

 

If 10 year takes out 1.50 again over the next couple of weeks, could be about to see AUG 82 in reverse on rates.....

 

TNX daily

 

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TNX 2 Hour and 4 hour...combo turn back up just getting under way???

 

If it does not turn back up...real soon...then perhaps something else going on...looking like big decision likely dead ahead...

 

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#6 K Wave

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Posted 31 August 2021 - 08:27 AM

Also watching Japan 10 year very closely here...has that look of a long term turn brewing.....

 

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#7 K Wave

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Posted 31 August 2021 - 10:14 AM

TNX 5 min...is this the starting gun???

 

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