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Risk Windows for the Labor Day Week


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#1 Douglas

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Posted 06 September 2021 - 04:48 AM

According to my risk summation system, the days this week with the highest risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend are Tuesday September 7th and Friday the 10th.  Since the current hourly trend as of Friday is up, a risk turn in the trend would be a move sharply lower.  An acceleration day would be a sharply higher move breaking out of the recent trading range.  Modest movement up or down or a flat day will make tomorrow's risk window a dud.

 

The risk windows in last week's dull summer trading could not move the market substantially in either direction so I suppose they should be labelled duds although the DJIA high for the week was on Monday in the first risk window and the low for the week was on Friday in the second risk window.

 

NiNlSVF.png

 

Since after today the summer holidays are in the rear view mirror and the big monied traders should be back from the Hamptons, I suppose the DJIA should break out of the dull trading range shown above.  Since the FED doesn't appear to be running short of printing ink for funny money, you would suppose that break out would be to new highs, but as Peter Eliades points out in his most recent YouTube video BEWARE!! LABOR DAY MARKET DEATH KNELL? - YouTube , post Labor Day trading has seen more than a few nasty surprises, so caveat emptor. 

 

Regards,

Douglas

 

 



#2 linrom1

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Posted 06 September 2021 - 09:14 AM

According to my risk summation system, the days this week with the highest risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend are Tuesday September 7th and Friday the 10th.  Since the current hourly trend as of Friday is up, a risk turn in the trend would be a move sharply lower.  An acceleration day would be a sharply higher move breaking out of the recent trading range.  Modest movement up or down or a flat day will make tomorrow's risk window a dud.

 

The risk windows in last week's dull summer trading could not move the market substantially in either direction so I suppose they should be labelled duds although the DJIA high for the week was on Monday in the first risk window and the low for the week was on Friday in the second risk window.

 

NiNlSVF.png

 

Since after today the summer holidays are in the rear view mirror and the big monied traders should be back from the Hamptons, I suppose the DJIA should break out of the dull trading range shown above.  Since the FED doesn't appear to be running short of printing ink for funny money, you would suppose that break out would be to new highs, but as Peter Eliades points out in his most recent YouTube video BEWARE!! LABOR DAY MARKET DEATH KNELL? - YouTube , post Labor Day trading has seen more than a few nasty surprises, so caveat emptor. 

 

Regards,

Douglas

 

 

Thanks for the link. I didn't think he was in business anymore.



#3 Douglas

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Posted 06 September 2021 - 11:04 AM

Apparently Peter almost wasn't.  He was hospitalized with Covid, but still put out videos from his home sick bed!  ( IMMINENT MARKET TOP!! - YouTube ).  He's literally a force of nature, an amazing guy.  The turn he was noting in the February video only lasted a few weeks, but his price offset trend following system doesn't stay wrong long. 

 

Peter, like me, is a bit long in the tooth and still remembers what a normal functioning business cycle based stock market looks like which gets in the way of being a perma-bull in this funny money driven market.  How long this new market era can last is anybody's guess.  I don't know when it will end, but I do have some inkling of how.  Like the aftermath of just about all parabolic markets, it probably won't be pretty. The trick in this market is to buy all the dips, except the last one.

 

aB4CyuR.png

 

Regards,

Douglas