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BIGGEST BUY-THE-DIP TEST: "V" shaped rebound or REAL correction?


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 25 September 2021 - 06:57 AM

Another profitable week, not as good as ptevious 2, only losing day was Thursday; small profit on Friday.

One of the few SUPER BULLISH successful analyst appear to be a bit cautious:

"This market pullback has a different "feel" to it. Perhaps another "V" shaped rebound or a situation that morphs into a REAL correction..."

https://seekingalpha...st-buy-dip-test

#2 dTraderB

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Posted 26 September 2021 - 07:22 AM

SPX 4900!

"...As far as the market is concerned, while we have seen the 200-point pullback recently which I was expecting before we rally to 4900SPX, I am going to need to see a 5-wave rally completed through the 4500SPX region to confirm the rally to 4900 is in progress. In fact, if the market breaks down below the 4420SPX region in impulsive fashion (an Elliott Wave term of art meaning a 5-wave structure) before we rally to complete an initial 5-wave structure over 4500SPX, then we can see one more loop lower and another 200+ point decline before we are ready to rally to 4900SPX.

But, don’t worry. You do not have to get FOMO (fear of missing out) just yet. Should we complete that 5-wave structure over 4500SPX, the market will likely then provide us with a corrective pullback back into the 4400-4450SPX region before we are ready for that rally to 4900SPX.

So, while many of you will continue to focus on the debt ceiling, or on an impending government shutdown, or on more Covid news, or on more inflation news, or on a myriad of other issues you deem important.."
https://seekingalpha...-market-is-over

 



#3 dTraderB

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Posted 26 September 2021 - 07:26 AM

Everyone - except a few - are VERY BULLISH after the "expected pullback"

 

Correction Is Over. Bulls Jump Back Into The Risk Pool 09-24-21
By Lance Roberts | September 25, 2021
 
Correction Is Over As Bulls Jump Back Into The “Risk Pool.”

As noted last week, retail investors didn’t step in right away to buy the dip at the 50-dma. However, they did show up on Monday afternoon and continued to buy through the rest of the week.

With the market very oversold, a counter-trend bounce next week will not be a surprise. However, if the market fails to hold the 50-dma, the risk of a more substantial correction is likely.”

Notably, two essential things occurred this week. The market regained its 50-dma and triggered our RIAPRO Money Flow “buy” signal. Both suggest that bulls have regained control, and we could see some follow-through buying next week.

SP500-Chart1-092421-1024x730.png

Over the past several weeks, in various forms, we discussed our reduction in risk by rebalancing equities, raising cash, and extending our duration in our bond portfolio. To wit:

“With volatility currently at the lows of its recent range, a pick-up in volatility would not be surprising. Over the last 6-months, corrections remain range-bound to the 50-dma which is currently 3% lower than closing levels. While such a decline is well within the norms of a correction in any given market year, the low levels of volatility will make it ‘feel’ worse than it is.

With money flows continuing to weaken and technical indicators setting up to produce sell signals, we reduced exposure a bit more this week by increasing cash and reducing our financial holdings. “ – August 13th.

With the markets now deeply oversold on a short-term basis, we deployed some of our cash throughout the week to rebalance the portfolio toward normal allocation levels.

We don’t expect a tremendous amount of upside, given the ongoing weakness of market internals, but a retest of previous highs is not out of the question. Particularly since the Fed “threaded the needle.”  

https://realinvestme...k-pool-09-24-21



#4 dTraderB

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Posted 26 September 2021 - 07:32 AM

NO, there will be no GOVT SHUTDOWN but lots of games and antics by politicians.... 

YES, POWELL will again "thread the needle" re: Tapering,  BUT the other FED officials are unpredictable

“I think what the Fed’s achieved so far is a taper without a tantrum,” Bannockburn Global Forex chief market strategist Marc Chandler said.

“I think a lot of people who invest in the market have a sense they are skating on thin ice, and any crack could be a big one. ... People are highly sensitive and nervous because they know valuations are stretched,” he said. “That means we should expect these episodic jumps in volatility.”

Chandler said the market will need to digest the recent moves, particularly the move higher in Treasury yields.

https://www.cnbc.com...winds-down.html

  • "...The Federal Reserve stays front and center again in the coming week, with Chairman Jerome Powell testifying before Congress and a host of other Fed officials speaking at events.
  • Congress must address an appropriations bill in the coming week or the government could shut down by next Friday..."
  •  


#5 dTraderB

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Posted 26 September 2021 - 07:38 AM

Not accusing anyone of anything: all I am saying is it will be extremely surprising if many in Governments in many countries are not making "policy statements" or "implementing strategies" and making billions in profit by frontrunning ... e.g. BITCOIN, OIL, NAT GAS, and of course some notable BANKERS in all sectors trading S&P FUTURES! 

 

In the U.S., corporate share buybacks are on a tear. Their timing is often...questionable. Where is it NOT questionable? Chinese tech. And they've been buying hand over fist. Share buybacks in Tencent $TCEHY over the past 30 days is the 4th-highest on record.


#6 dTraderB

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Posted 26 September 2021 - 07:41 AM

 
ZVBuToeP_bigger.jpg
 
Have a great weekend! Last week #ES_F broke down a multi month channel. This week, it relief rallied & is near the backtest. Next big leg determined there Plan next week: Looking to 4470-80 backtest. Drop there, but bears need to take it <4400 or ATHs up next. Detail below $SPX


#7 dTraderB

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Posted 26 September 2021 - 07:45 AM

McClellanOsc_1140.gif

 

Did not reach that -200 level or lower on that drop

Also, did not reach or cross that +200 level on the rally before the drop

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/



#8 dTraderB

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Posted 26 September 2021 - 07:47 AM

WOW! VERY BULLISH 60-40

 

 

Saturday Poll The next 100 points in the S&P?
  •  
    UP
    59.8%
  •  
    DOWN
    40.2%
2,117 votes·Final results
Saturday Poll The next 100 points in the S&P?
  •  
    UP
    59.8%
  •  
    DOWN
    40.2%
2,117 votes·Final results


#9 dTraderB

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Posted 26 September 2021 - 07:53 AM

Not a crisis to precipitate a CRASH but the Chinese will manage with painful losses for many - including foreign investors

 

 
A8HCjqZk_bigger.jpg
 
CHINESE CITIES SEIZE EVERGRANDE PRESALES TO BLOCK POTENTIAL MISUSE OF FUNDS - FT
 
A8HCjqZk_bigger.jpg
 
CHINESE CITIES SEIZE EVERGRANDE PRESALES TO BLOCK POTENTIAL MISUSE OF FUNDS - FT


#10 dTraderB

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Posted 26 September 2021 - 07:55 AM

 
 
hfj1ZNQC_bigger.jpg
 
Largest Defaults Lehman: $630B Evergrande: $300B Greeece: $200B Argentina: $94B
 
*Sovereign Defaults Piling Up last 12 Yrs - Jamaica, Belize, Puerto Rico, Iceland, Grenada, Barbados, Venezuela, Ukraine, Ecuador. http://thebeartrapsreport.com/blog/2021/09/18/the-week-that-changed-the-world-13-years-just-wow/