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Risk Windows for the Week of October the 4th


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#1 Douglas

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Posted 02 October 2021 - 07:35 AM

According to my risk summation system, the days with the highest risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend are Monday October 4th, Wednesday October 6th and Friday October 8th, the front, the middle and the end, pretty much the whole cotton-picking week.

 

Last week's Friday the 1st risk window saw a big reversal and tagged what appears to be an important low.  Right when things were looking a bit dire, amazing news about a miracle Merck covid pill hits the wires first thing in the morning.  What an incredible coincidence.  As I mentioned last week, I'm not sure if the Friday the 1st and Monday the 4th risk windows are one large window or two separate ones. If the DJIA continues northward Monday, it's the former and if it reverses down again, it's the latter.  

 

The turn on Friday is close enough to the key risk window on Monday the 4th to be a hit.  Key risk windows are very long cycles with +/- a couple of day sized windows which play by horse shoes and hand grenade rules.  As I mentioned in my note last week on the subject, they occasionally tag important lows and crashes.  The action next week should clarify if Friday was indeed a key low or just a way-stop on the march down. 

 

Just to float a little black cloud onto the bright sunshine sky of this miracle pill cure, it might just throw a monkey wrench into the FED funny money pump machinery since the impetus to run those pumps at full tilt is in large part based on the perceived need to help with the jobs recovery, a recovery that might come storming back now that you will soon be able to just pop a pill and beat the bug.  When that little fact dawns on the market, the taper tantrum correction just might resume.  

 

Regards,

Douglas

 



#2 Douglas

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Posted 04 October 2021 - 12:55 PM

I saw an article today on the web concerning the opening of Disney World.  Just out of curiosity I searched online for the ticket price.  $125 for general admission, ouch!  As a certified inflation info junkie I thought it might be interest to see what the price was when I was still young enough to have had an inclination to go there.  In 1971 the ticket set you back $3.50.  The inflation in the cost of fun is not Mickey Mouse according to those numbers.  It runs about 7.7% for those 48 years. 

 

But to look at this apples to apples, I thought I would divide the ticket cost for a typical family of four, two adults and two rug rats, by how much I was making back in 1971 digging ditches for minimum wage which was $1.60.  Turns out I had to work a little over a day to take the kids to go see Donald Duck.  A minimum wage worker today would need to work almost 9 days assuming he cheated and paid no social security taxes.  There are 1.6 million Americans working for the minimum wage or less.  

 

Then I thought, how many Americans today make enough money working just one day like I did back in 1971 to take their family.  The answer is just a little of over 5%, one in twenty.  If you count both the husband and wife's incomes which is more typical now than in 1971, that figure rises to about 30%, but still not a majority by any means.  

 

My point is, the magic kingdom has been made a somewhat unaffordable place for a lot of folks due to magic money printing.  This Goofy milking of the great unwashed masses is not going to have a Cinderella ending.

 

Regards, 

Douglas