According to my risk summation system, the days with the highest risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend are Monday October 4th, Wednesday October 6th and Friday October 8th, the front, the middle and the end, pretty much the whole cotton-picking week.
Last week's Friday the 1st risk window saw a big reversal and tagged what appears to be an important low. Right when things were looking a bit dire, amazing news about a miracle Merck covid pill hits the wires first thing in the morning. What an incredible coincidence. As I mentioned last week, I'm not sure if the Friday the 1st and Monday the 4th risk windows are one large window or two separate ones. If the DJIA continues northward Monday, it's the former and if it reverses down again, it's the latter.
The turn on Friday is close enough to the key risk window on Monday the 4th to be a hit. Key risk windows are very long cycles with +/- a couple of day sized windows which play by horse shoes and hand grenade rules. As I mentioned in my note last week on the subject, they occasionally tag important lows and crashes. The action next week should clarify if Friday was indeed a key low or just a way-stop on the march down.
Just to float a little black cloud onto the bright sunshine sky of this miracle pill cure, it might just throw a monkey wrench into the FED funny money pump machinery since the impetus to run those pumps at full tilt is in large part based on the perceived need to help with the jobs recovery, a recovery that might come storming back now that you will soon be able to just pop a pill and beat the bug. When that little fact dawns on the market, the taper tantrum correction just might resume.