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An 85% Chance That Stocks Won't Suffer a Pullback


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 01 November 2021 - 08:49 AM

NOT ME! I am in the 15% segment


Greeat October ended with a losing Friday and November has start Red.

Too much weeekend fun & up late last night trading

VERY BIG SHORT POSITION, will add more. And, take profits in NQ LONG HEDGE. RISK-ON NOVEMBER, at least in first week.

81 QQQ SHORT
28 VXX CALLS
14 CRUDE SHORT
2 NQ HEDGE LONG
...

It is not a secret that the 4th quarter tends to be good for stock market investors, particularly beginning in late October. Jay examined one specific period and measured the results.

The chart below displays the Annual Seasonal Trend for the S&P 500 Index.

https://www.sentimen...fer-a-pullback/

#2 dTraderB

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Posted 01 November 2021 - 08:53 AM

Lance:

"Earnings have indeed been very impressive, but as we will discuss, this quarter will likely mark the peak of growth for a while.

The more significant concern, however, remains the underlying technical condition of the market. While the rally has been impressive, rising almost 6% from the recent lows, the market is now back to more extreme overbought levels, trading 2-standard deviations above the 50-dma, and breadth remains troubling"

In this 10-29-21 issue of Market Melts Up As Economic Growth Weakens.

Market Back To Extreme Overbought
Economic Growth Weakens
Earnings Expectations Way Ahead Of Reality
Portfolio Positioning
Sector & Market Analysis

https://realinvestme...akens-10-29-21/

#3 redfoliage2

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Posted 01 November 2021 - 10:07 AM

VST the market is expecting the House to vote on the spending bill ...........................


Edited by redfoliage2, 01 November 2021 - 10:08 AM.


#4 redfoliage2

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Posted 01 November 2021 - 11:06 AM

https://www.google.c...bill/index.html

 

So we should see new highs if passed as this is a news-driven market ..................


Edited by redfoliage2, 01 November 2021 - 11:16 AM.


#5 dTraderB

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Posted 02 November 2021 - 08:52 AM

Closing one NQ HEDGE LONG +473.75 points

Will reopen lower than 15960

Flat crude, will reopen shorts above 83.75  or on any bounce above 1% from low of day

 

$622 loss in a Red Monday, big short position

 

88 QQQ SHORT

32 VXX CALLS

1 NQ LONG HEDGE

 

 



#6 dTraderB

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Posted 02 November 2021 - 08:54 AM

First half-hour of cash session ... looking at how it goes from here

 

 

 
The relentless seasonal #ES_F rally paused yesterday as expected- now basing waiting on Fed tomorrow. Support yesterday was 4590 & held 3 times Plan today: 4590 still spport, 4575 below. As long as those hold, ES still has another leg to 4660 then 4700. 4575 fails selloff starts
Quote Tweet
 
 
ZVBuToeP_mini.jpg
 
Adam Mancini
 
@AdamMancini4
· Nov 1
The seasonal rally in #ES_F continues with only 1 red day in last 13. My target all last week was ~4620 & hit overnight Plan today: This is bears shot at a cool-off. 4590/4575 supports. Needs to lose those to see any real selling, or this just sets up next leg to 4660 then 4700 twitter.com/AdamMancini4/s…
 
The relentless seasonal #ES_F rally paused yesterday as expected- now basing waiting on Fed tomorrow. Support yesterday was 4590 & held 3 times Plan today: 4590 still spport, 4575 below. As long as those hold, ES still has another leg to 4660 then 4700. 4575 fails selloff starts
Quote Tweet
 
 
ZVBuToeP_mini.jpg
 
Adam Mancini
 
@AdamMancini4
· Nov 1
The seasonal rally in #ES_F continues with only 1 red day in last 13. My target all last week was ~4620 & hit overnight Plan today: This is bears shot at a cool-off. 4590/4575 supports. Needs to lose those to see any real selling, or this just sets up next leg to 4660 then 4700 twitter.com/AdamMancini4/s…


#7 12SPX

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Posted 02 November 2021 - 09:21 AM

Yup I've continued to read him but he kinda missed the start of the -5% correction but good to keep track of!  David Larews charts are on Stockcharts.com but miss his funny interpretations, if you hear of where he is now let me know!!  



#8 K Wave

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Posted 02 November 2021 - 10:21 AM

Indexes still looking OK...

 

But leadership thinning

 

2 of the big 5, FB and AMZN nowhere near their highs, and AMZN on the verge of breaking down if 3300 is seriously breached...

 

Still watching AAPL to see if it can hold the break over 150...



#9 K Wave

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Posted 02 November 2021 - 10:28 AM

Totally normal action on Trannies today.....rolleyes.gif



#10 redfoliage2

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Posted 02 November 2021 - 11:27 AM

EXPECTING THE MARKET TO KEEP GRINDING UP AS IT'S WAITING FOR THE HOUSE TO VOTE ON THE SPENDING AND INFRASTRUCTURE BILLS.  BUT THE VOTE MAY BE DELAYED


Edited by redfoliage2, 02 November 2021 - 11:36 AM.