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Massive Decline Ahead Update # 2


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#1 Spectacular Bid

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Posted 10 November 2021 - 10:29 AM

Quick Review. Posted in Early July that I thought we would have a 5% to 7% correction by late August and then new highs by early October. Was a month early on both. We got the correction by late September and the rally to new highs took until late October and has continued in November. The main point was that this was a possible setup for a 30% decline starting before year end and ending by mid year. So now that we are here, what do I think about a 30% decline starting soon.

FUHGEDDABOUTIT. Sorry but the internal strength of the rally was more than would be expected if a really large decline was about to begin. I do think we will have a two week decline plus or minus starting in the next week or so, but then I would expect that by early December we start another rally to even higher levels. I wouldn’t rule out a large decline next year as that has been the norm for the 2nd year of first term presidents of a new party, but for now there is no setup.

On another note, I’ve been impressed with the very spirited debate regarding, Covid, The Vaccine and other therapy’s. All sides have been well represented. I have nothing to add, other than I wish everyone the best of health regardless of what choices you make.

 



#2 fib_1618

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Posted 10 November 2021 - 11:41 AM

As of last Friday, the NYSE Composite, NYSE Specialty CEF, NYSE Perferred, NYSE REITS and Russell "2032" advance/decline lines all finished at new all time highs.

 

Generally speaking, even if Friday was the highs for the year, it will likely take 4-8 weeks before prices peak out on the momentum created by this "internal combustion".

 

For now, all is a go for the bulls going into November OPEX, with some areas of market activity just now given the green light to rally into the end of the year. After that, and as long as the interest rate sensitive A/D lines continue to trend lower, the 1st quarter of next year could produce another trading range at the least, or even, a larger corrective sequence at the most going into April.

 

Bottom line...it's all about liquidity and how much investment capital is out there to be put to work (or taken away) at any given moment.

 

Fib


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#3 redfoliage2

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Posted 10 November 2021 - 12:50 PM

USD up 0.7 points so far today indicating investors are running to safe haven.  I doubt it's going to crash, but a correction in "risky assets" as the Fed warned likely has started ................


Edited by redfoliage2, 10 November 2021 - 12:55 PM.


#4 redfoliage2

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Posted 10 November 2021 - 02:37 PM

The market is in correction mode and from the current level to the next support at SPX 4500 is about 140 points, that may be just a minimum for this correction .............


Edited by redfoliage2, 10 November 2021 - 02:46 PM.


#5 Spectacular Bid

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Posted 10 November 2021 - 02:48 PM

For the heck of it, I just did a deep dive into first term democratic presidents after a republican president. There were four since 1960. Kennedy had a 6 month decline of approximately 27% from December of his first year until June of his 2nd year. Carter was next but I'm throwing him out as the market started a persistent decline right from when he took office and ended March of his 2nd year. Clinton had a 3 month decline of close to 10% down to March of his 2nd year and then double bottomed in June and Finally Obama had a 3 month decline down to late June of around 17% in his 2nd year. Two of the declines ended in June while the 3rd ended in March but double bottomed in June.  Two of the declines were only 3 months and one was 6 months. Obviously this means we will bottom next June. Only kidding. Just posting what I found which may or may not be worthless.



#6 Spectacular Bid

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Posted 10 November 2021 - 02:53 PM

If the 18 month cycle came in late September early October then the next 9 month cycle would be due May June, but that's a big if.



#7 12SPX

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Posted 10 November 2021 - 03:03 PM

That's interesting but I would say its most like Carter as he was an idiot too just like biden lol!



#8 Spectacular Bid

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Posted 10 November 2021 - 03:34 PM

The greatest similarity market wise is Kennedy as the market had a very long and powerful bull market leading up to his taking office which is the same as now, notwithstanding the covid crash.



#9 da_cheif

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Posted 10 November 2021 - 06:41 PM

WWW.......today....full moon on the 19th opex


Edited by da_cheif, 10 November 2021 - 06:43 PM.


#10 linrom1

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Posted 10 November 2021 - 09:04 PM

WWW.......today....full moon on the 19th opex

How nice.