According to my risk summation system, the days next week with the highest risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Tuesday December 28th and Friday the 31st.
Last week had high risk window readings just about every day, and as has been the case so many times in this FED funny money fuelled market, a swift, sharp sell off on Monday was followed by an epic short squeeze driving the DJIA up almost 1400 points from its low on Monday. Late Thursday the rally motor appeared to be running on just fumes, so I'm a bit surprised that the system thinks the turn will be Tuesday and not Monday, but it is what it is.
If this latest covid manifestation turns out to be as non-lethal as it now appears, the FED, which has been dragging their feet on tightening will suddenly be caught with their pants down around their ankles again. Good covid news early in the new year should be accompanied by a 2 year note slaughter. If not, the FED is yet again all bark and no bite.
Back on the 16th of December I posted a note touting the Pound. Of course the very next day it tanked, but it didn't take out the recent low support that I showed on the chart. Since that quick retreat, it has been on a pretty good tear, and if Boris can just avoid another faux pas and covid cooperates, that rally should have some legs. Also if the FED really is just trying to jawbone inflation and not do anything substantial, that will just lengthen the Pound's stride.
Edited by Douglas, 24 December 2021 - 12:45 PM.