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FF 2022: SPX up 10% - down, up, down big, year-end rally


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 02 January 2022 - 09:15 AM

Big down moves in 2022 but I still expect at least a 10% rally in SPX. 

This assumes future COVID variants will be less disruptive and far better vaccines & pills etc will be available by mid 2022. 

Personally, one of my best annual returns in 2021, a bigger RISK PORTFOLIO capital available now, but extremely cautious investing in LT Portfolio in 2022.

Starting 2022 with a partially hedged SHORT position and will add to it on any rallies but I want to focus on more NQ day trading as well as more SPREADs in OPTION TRADING.

 

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#2 dTraderB

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Posted 02 January 2022 - 09:18 AM

Top of normal range, looking for a pullback to at least zero line

 

McClellanOsc_1208.gif

 

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/



#3 dTraderB

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Posted 02 January 2022 - 09:19 AM

"Both equity-only put-call ratios are on buy signals. The weighted ratio's buy signal is confirmed by our computer analysis programs. The standard ratio's signal is not computer-confirmed, but it is getting very close to that status.

Market breadth expanded tremendously during the big 270- point rally in $SPX (through December 27th), and that pushed both of our breadth oscillators onto buy signals.

$VIX has gotten somewhat more bullish in the last week, too. The "spike peak" buy signal of December 20th is still in place and has done well. $VIX has also traded down below its 200-day moving average, which is somewhat positive."

https://www.optionst...entary-12312021



#4 dTraderB

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Posted 02 January 2022 - 09:20 AM

Saturday Poll. The next 100 points for the S&P?
  •  
    UP
    50.4%
  •  
    DOWN
    49.6%
2,555 votes·Final results


#5 dTraderB

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Posted 02 January 2022 - 09:22 AM

Note: First Trading Day of last year was a fairly significant red day before resuming upside strongly. Would not be surprised to see some red Monday to backtest some of those supports shown above. Will see what futures open brings though tomorrow night

 

Happy NY! 2021 ended with breakout of 1.5 month bull triangle in #ES_F.
Bulls need to hold it next week to keep control for Jan/Feb
Plan: Supports = 4745, 4713-4700 lowest.
Bulls can hold, uptrend continues to 4840, dip, 4870+. 4713 fails, major sell incoming.



#6 redfoliage2

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Posted 03 January 2022 - 09:47 AM

It looks going to gap-and-crap ..................


Edited by redfoliage2, 03 January 2022 - 09:57 AM.


#7 redfoliage2

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Posted 03 January 2022 - 10:00 AM

It looks going to gap-and-crap ..................

I see they have good reasons to sell today and there should be more selling late afternoon.   I'd not be surprised to see the market closes in red today .................


Edited by redfoliage2, 03 January 2022 - 10:05 AM.


#8 dTraderB

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Posted 03 January 2022 - 10:57 AM

I still think they will rally during the remaining two days of the Santa Rally period. 

Then, a few days of declines

 

 

It looks going to gap-and-crap ..................

I see they have good reasons to sell today and there should be more selling late afternoon.   I'd not be surprised to see the market closes in red today .................

 



#9 dTraderB

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Posted 03 January 2022 - 11:04 AM

Not going to close any PUTS but will add another HEDGE LONG on any pullback below ES 4750

Will close 1 NQ HEDGE LONG above 16475

Will buy more PUTS above previous ATHs. 

 

LIMIT orders  placed to add more VXX CALLS but I just can't focus on that now so will adjust the orders if necessary and leave it alone. 

----

 

Started bleeding from about 2pm and then picked up in the final 90 minutes in the way down

 

Set my alerts and placed LIMIT ORDERS, will only trade tomorrow if triggered. 

 

Best day for me this week, good-bye 2021, a great trading year, see you all in 2022, January 2nd 

 

90 SPY PUTS

2 ES HEDGE LONG

 

44 QQQ PUTS
2 NQ HEDGE LONG

 

20 VXX CALLS

 

 

Started bleeding from about 2pm and then picked up in the final 90 minutes in the way down

 

Set my alerts and placed LIMIT ORDERS, will only trade tomorrow if triggered. 

 

Best day for me this week, good-bye 2021, a great trading year, see you all in 2022, January 2nd 

 

90 SPY PUTS

2 ES HEDGE LONG

 

44 QQQ PUTS
2 NQ HEDGE LONG

 

20 VXX CALLS



#10 12SPX

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Posted 03 January 2022 - 11:33 AM

I could have covered my short earlier but broke my rule and held!  Could've sold higher oh well,,,,I have a feeling in the end this may be one of those rare down Santa rally weeks that is down, market is struggling here and is what I think the whole year will be like. Lots of volatility as new highs may be made along with at least one -10% correction!  Am I being vague and all over the place enough lol!!  Most importantly I think its going to be a great year for selling option premium and that's most important!!