304 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

That means there markets can still fall another 400 to 500 SPX points? 
Bank Of America analyst:

BoA strategists 'bearish', expect 'growth shock' in back half 2022

Equity strategists at Bank of America declared themselves to be "bearish" on equities, arguing that the 2021 inflation shock would reverberate in 2022 via an interest rate shock in the first half of the year followed by a "growth shock" in the back half of the same year.

 

The result would negative returns on credit and stocks, the strategy team led by Michael Hartnett said in a research report sent to clients.

Worth noting, in the case of the S&P 500, they believed the level that would lead the Federal Reserve to become worried, or what traders termed the "Fed put", lay at around 3,800-4,000 points.

They also noted how the US public debt pile was now north of $30trn and worth more than 100% of GDP, versus $3trn in 1990 and $10trn in 2008.

https://www.sharecast.com/news/international-economic/boa-strategists-bearish-expect-growth-shock-in-back-half-2022--9158022.html 

[dTraderB]

"If the Wall Street week begins with a cheerful optimistic sermon from JPMorgan resident permabull Marko Kolanovic who - ever since he got promoted - has not seen a market he wouldn't buy (with JPMorgan clients money), it ends with fire and brimstone from BofA Michael Hartnett, who is increasingly competing with Michael Wilson for the role of Wall Street's biggest bear. And so, a few days after Kolanovic was out with his usual clarion call to "BTFD", and one week after his last note in which he warned that the Fed will push until the market breaks (and listed three key indicators of the coming crisis), he is out with a rehash of the three reasons why, as he puts it, "we are bearish" and these are: after the "inflation shock of H221, we are currently going through the rates shock of H122, which will mutate into the "growth shock of H222 (i.e., recession) and be marked by negative returns in credit & stocks (Hartnett believes that the Fed put is at  SPX 3800-4000, and IG spreads >150bps). This means that starting in Q2, the bull market in cash, volatility, commodities and EMs is set to end, and will be replaced by a "bear market" where the key trades are stocks, credit, Treasuries; he also reminds clients that key risks for a bear market being systemic event & recession, while bull risks are Great Consolidation & disinflation. As Hartnett traditionally does, he takes a detour to remind readers of The Biggest Picture, which is as follows:"

 

https://remarkboard....d/1gdzpuji1hsbz

 

 

That means there markets can still fall another 400 to 500 SPX points? 
Bank Of America analyst:

BoA strategists 'bearish', expect 'growth shock' in back half 2022

Equity strategists at Bank of America declared themselves to be "bearish" on equities, arguing that the 2021 inflation shock would reverberate in 2022 via an interest rate shock in the first half of the year followed by a "growth shock" in the back half of the same year.

 

The result would negative returns on credit and stocks, the strategy team led by Michael Hartnett said in a research report sent to clients.

Worth noting, in the case of the S&P 500, they believed the level that would lead the Federal Reserve to become worried, or what traders termed the "Fed put", lay at around 3,800-4,000 points.

They also noted how the US public debt pile was now north of $30trn and worth more than 100% of GDP, versus $3trn in 1990 and $10trn in 2008.

https://www.sharecast.com/news/international-economic/boa-strategists-bearish-expect-growth-shock-in-back-half-2022--9158022.html 

[dTraderB]

BofA’s strategists remain bearish on equities, predicting a “rates shock” in the first half of this year followed by a “growth shock” in the second, triggering negative returns for both equities and credit.

READ: BofA Strategists See ‘Bad Combo’ for Stocks and Credit in 2022

Central banks in Europe turned more hawkish this week to fight soaring inflation, with both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank starting to align to the Federal Reserve’s tone on rate hikes.

“Rates shock goes global, tech wreck threatens systemic damage, recession scare goes mainstream,” Hartnett wrote, summarizing what he said was a historic week for global markets.

https://www.bloomber...onds-get-dumped

 

 

"If the Wall Street week begins with a cheerful optimistic sermon from JPMorgan resident permabull Marko Kolanovic who - ever since he got promoted - has not seen a market he wouldn't buy (with JPMorgan clients money), it ends with fire and brimstone from BofA Michael Hartnett, who is increasingly competing with Michael Wilson for the role of Wall Street's biggest bear. And so, a few days after Kolanovic was out with his usual clarion call to "BTFD", and one week after his last note in which he warned that the Fed will push until the market breaks (and listed three key indicators of the coming crisis), he is out with a rehash of the three reasons why, as he puts it, "we are bearish" and these are: after the "inflation shock of H221, we are currently going through the rates shock of H122, which will mutate into the "growth shock of H222 (i.e., recession) and be marked by negative returns in credit & stocks (Hartnett believes that the Fed put is at  SPX 3800-4000, and IG spreads >150bps). This means that starting in Q2, the bull market in cash, volatility, commodities and EMs is set to end, and will be replaced by a "bear market" where the key trades are stocks, credit, Treasuries; he also reminds clients that key risks for a bear market being systemic event & recession, while bull risks are Great Consolidation & disinflation. As Hartnett traditionally does, he takes a detour to remind readers of The Biggest Picture, which is as follows:"

 

https://remarkboard....d/1gdzpuji1hsbz

 

 

That means there markets can still fall another 400 to 500 SPX points? 
Bank Of America analyst:

BoA strategists 'bearish', expect 'growth shock' in back half 2022

Equity strategists at Bank of America declared themselves to be "bearish" on equities, arguing that the 2021 inflation shock would reverberate in 2022 via an interest rate shock in the first half of the year followed by a "growth shock" in the back half of the same year.

 

The result would negative returns on credit and stocks, the strategy team led by Michael Hartnett said in a research report sent to clients.

Worth noting, in the case of the S&P 500, they believed the level that would lead the Federal Reserve to become worried, or what traders termed the "Fed put", lay at around 3,800-4,000 points.

They also noted how the US public debt pile was now north of $30trn and worth more than 100% of GDP, versus $3trn in 1990 and $10trn in 2008.

https://www.sharecast.com/news/international-economic/boa-strategists-bearish-expect-growth-shock-in-back-half-2022--9158022.html 

 

[dTraderB]

Of course, the FED will soon realize they are way behind the curve and then swing to the other extreme: Interest Rate shocks! 

 

 

Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

·

Jan 22, 2021

 

“D.C.’s policy bubble is fueling Wall St’s asset price bubble....When those who want to stay rich start acting like those who want to get rich, it suggests a late-stage speculative blow-off:” Bank of America strategists led by Michael Hartnett wrote in a note today

Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

·

Jan 22, 2021

 

“D.C.’s policy bubble is fueling Wall St’s asset price bubble....When those who want to stay rich start acting like those who want to get rich, it suggests a late-stage speculative blow-off:” Bank of America strategists led by Michael Hartnett wrote in a note today

[redfoliage2]

BofA analysts were bearish and calling crash right before the SPX 375 Points rise. Id just Ignore those losers, they dont really know whats going to be in the future with the market, just keep repeating their propaganda so to influence investors and the market as they hope..

Edited by redfoliage2, 05 February 2022 - 12:08 PM.

[pdx5]

BofA analysts were bearish and calling crash right before the SPX 375 Points rise. Id just Ignore those losers, they dont really know what going in the future with the market, just keep repeating their propaganda ..

BofA analyst types are NEVER day traders or even short term traders.

[dTraderB]

As posted last week I expect a Friday or Monday ST LOW - could have been made Friday last or will be on Monday, then a ST BOUNCE but have no idea 

how strong this bounce will be. Could fail to reach ES 4600 or it could rally to new ATH. 
But, the decline resumes after that 

 

No AMAZON FILL

but finally managed to get a fill on this:

2 META MAR  18 240 CALLS

 

1 NQ HEDGE LONG

10 QQQ PUTS

100 QQQ 

 

dTraderB, on 04 Feb 2022 - 12:22 PM, said:

 

As posted below, this drop is still not completed... looking for another ST LOW late today or MONDAY

 

But, it can drop HARD ... all the way below ES 4300 before this low

 

May buy some META (FB) March 18 CALLS 

 

Placing BUY LIMIT order for 250 and 240 CALLS

Edited by dTraderB, 06 February 2022 - 05:52 PM.

[dTraderB]

Adam Mancini

 

@AdamMancini4

·

Feb 5

 

Have a great weekend! Good & bad news for #ES_F bulls. Good news: Big triangle forming that favors break up. Bad news: Likely fills out (chop) more 1st Plan: Chop above 4450 sets up direct break to 4690+. 4450 fails, we see 4390-4400 triangle support 1st (must hold or new lows)

[dTraderB]

Yeah, could be chopping in a relatively smaller zone this week

 

Helene Meisler

@hmeisler

 

Saturday Poll The next 100 points in the S&P?

•  

  UP

  50.7%
•  

  DOWN

  49.3%

3,287 votes·Final results

8:02 AM · Feb 5, 2022·Twitter Web App

[dTraderB]

Will SHORT crude this week above WTI  93

 

Rory Johnston

 

@Rory_Johnston

·

10m

 

This on the lack of investment in Iran’s downstream oil sector (i.e., refining) is really interesting. Also fascinating to think of domestic refining as a partial crude sanctions hedge. Gov’t has signed contracts for 1.46 MMbpd of new refining capacity over the next 4-6 yrs.