312 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

Yes, it's coming but I am looing for a ST LOW this week (or already made on Friday) and then a bounce. 

After that, the magnitude of the drop will depend on the state of the UKRAINE issue and the FED's determination, or lack thereof, to ctu rates and signal a willingness to continue doing so. 

50bps cut not in March - it will be 25bps and there will be a relief rally. 

 

Of course, if there is actual war in Europe then markets will tank more than 20% from current levels. Doubt it will happen.... 

 

Bowley:

Are You Ready for a Market Meltdown? It's Coming

 

I am rarely dramatic, but 2022 is an exception. I believe we are in the type of bear market that we haven't seen in a long, long time.

The pandemic-driven cyclical bear market in 2020 was a health care crisis, not a financial crisis. I wrote about it throughout the pandemic and boldly predicted in the middle of it that we remained in a secular (long-term) bull market. The 2020 bear market lasted 23 trading days. It was brutal, but it was swift.

The good news is that I very much believe that we remain in a secular bull market and we'll once again recover from this current cyclical bear market (yes, I believe it started in early January), though it likely won't be as quick as 2020. 

https://stockcharts....et-mel-109.html

[dTraderB]

I closed a a few QQQ PUTS on Friday, so I am now net LONG in tech and stocks. 

 

Will trade according to the fnudamentals -- news, etc

 

Everyone sees a H&S top in S&P and everyone noticed the Death-cross!  Too many leaning on one side? 

 

ST extreme bearishness? 

--

 

How Bad Is 2022? Is There an End in Sight?

:....Back in 2008 it took another four months of hell before we got a good bottom.,,,"

 

https://howardlindzo...n-end-in-sight/

[dTraderB]

UKRAINE: I expect no war, maybe more skirmishes, relatively speaking, but Putin will get those two pieces of Ukraine, threaten, bluster, warn about Ukraine joining NATO and this can continue for months and years without any prolonged serious military action. Hence, a low ST and then bounce....

 

A YIELD crash?  Maybe not so bad but a sharp pullback ST... I will sell BONDS after the rallt

 

In this 02-18-22 issue of “Buy Bonds? Yes, And You Should Too.”

• Market Turbulence From “Russia With Love.”
• Why We Are Buying Bonds & You Should Too

 

https://realinvestme...-you-should-too

[dTraderB]

Mark mentioned this poll, here are results:

https://chartstorm.s...?utm_source=url

[dTraderB]

Adam Mancini

 

@AdamMancini4

 

Have a great weekend! This week, #ES_F broke down major triangle pattern & failed to reclaim its 200dma. All eyes now on big H&S everyone sees Next week: Looking to test neckline at 4280-4260. Bounce there but unless bulls clear 4395 (bottoms in), 4160s coming.

 

 

Adam Mancini

 

@AdamMancini4

·

28m

 

You don't always need an opinion on where markets are headed - its in fact counterproductive. Good, high conviction setups are rare by definition. The rest is "mediocre, need more information". Being able to say so, act accordingly & wait for quality is a massive profit booster

 

Adam Mancini

 

@AdamMancini4

 

Have a great weekend! This week, #ES_F broke down major triangle pattern & failed to reclaim its 200dma. All eyes now on big H&S everyone sees Next week: Looking to test neckline at 4280-4260. Bounce there but unless bulls clear 4395 (bottoms in), 4160s coming.

[dTraderB]

Not as bearish as I thought they would be:

 

Helene Meisler

@hmeisler

 

Saturday Twitter Poll. The next 100 points for the S&P?

•  

  UP

  45.9%
•  

  DOWN

  54.1%

3,373 votes·Final results

[dTraderB]

Tom McClellan

 

@McClellanOsc

·

20h

 

This is why declaring something as "officially a bear market" or "official correction territory" is a useless distinction, and should be avoided by all professionals. It does not tell you what's next, so it is without a meaningful purpose.

Quote Tweet

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Michael Santoli

@michaelsantoli

· Feb 19

Now come the voices saying this is not a mere correction but a de facto bear market that started a year ago. (Sort of like we heard in early 2016). OK, fair enough. Which doesn't say whether it's just starting or nearly over....

[dTraderB]

Tom McClellan

 

@McClellanOsc

·

Feb 18

 

The question is which volume stats to use for this: SPY? ES? TVOL? Edward’s and Magee do not answer this question for us, as H&S is originally intended for individual stocks, not the entire market.

Quote Tweet

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Peter Brandt

@PeterLBrandt

· Feb 18

H&S top in S&Ps??? $SPX $ES_F $SPY A number of technical traders have pointed out this potential top While the form itself is close to perfection (so far), the volume profile is not consistent with classical charting Highest volume should not be in right shoulder

[dTraderB]

I think it is going down to at least -200 then soar above zero to spike up to the 200-300 zone

 

 

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/

[dTraderB]

Will trade tonight if markets are active, same plan until the FUTURES market closes tomorrow.

BUY THE "not so bad" NEWS tonight & tomorrow is quite possible

 

This is all over the financial media: the death cross!

 

 

 

(Bloomberg) -- The Nasdaq Composite Index tumbled into an ominous “death cross” technical formation Friday for the first time since April 2020, when the pandemic battered the global economy and U.S. equity markets swooned.

 

https://finance.yaho...-153648858.html

 

 

(Bloomberg) -- The Nasdaq Composite Index tumbled into an ominous “death cross” technical formation Friday for the first time since April 2020, when the pandemic battered the global economy and U.S. equity markets swooned.