6 replies to this topic

[linrom1]

Although this is not very likely, there is a shot that NQs bottomed.  My reasoning is that volume on downside is no where near epic that it would be if this was the secular end of this bull market. I show that we retraced more than 50% of the advance of WAVE 3 from about 11,000 and are in the range of 50% and 61.8%, a retracement that is more than enough for WAVE 4.

 

While this whole count is rather dodgy(series of ending diagonals) , I don't see that it's not a valid possibility. But, we should know very soon....like possibility even tomorrow.

 

Edited by linrom1, 22 February 2022 - 10:16 PM.

[fib_1618]

The short term trend of volume and breadth does suggest a series of 1's and 2's right now, but Elliott can be so fickle at times.

 

We're likely to know better by the end of the week which one is correct...it's the bears to lose.

 

Fib

[linrom1]

The short term trend of volume and breadth does suggest a series of 1's and 2's right now, but Elliott can be so fickle at times.

 

We're likely to know better by the end of the week which one is correct...it's the bears to lose.

 

Fib

Agree but if those are 1,2s, then we would be going a lot lower which would make it rather unlikely WAVE 4 decline.

[fib_1618]

 

The short term trend of volume and breadth does suggest a series of 1's and 2's right now, but Elliott can be so fickle at times.

 

We're likely to know better by the end of the week which one is correct...it's the bears to lose.

 

Fib

 

Agree but if those are 1,2s, then we would be going a lot lower which would make it rather unlikely WAVE 4 decline.

 

 

Correct...it would be wave 3 of (multiple) 3....all dependent on the degree of trend,

 

Like you said, we'll know as soon as Wednesday...but by the end of the week for sure.

 

Watch the large caps...they are the weakest link at this time.

 

Fib

[steadyquest]

Apparently bearish sentiment is too strong for a rapid market decline.

 

"It is this "frantic hedging" that is helping buffer any decline, said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co, preventing the market from flushing to the downside..."

 

https://www.zerohedg...e-hedging-crash

[fib_1618]

Apparently bearish sentiment is too strong for a rapid market decline.

 

I posted the chart below in another thread back in January that gives a couple of examples when "bearish sentiment was too strong" but didn't quite work out.

 

Sometimes it can just stair step lower...It really all depends on the market internals and the psychology of traders at the time of such rare events.

 

At the end of the day...sometimes...bearish sentiment can lead like a snowball slowly rolling down a mountain.

 

Fib

 

[brucekeller]

yesterday has a nice daily lower shadow on the stick and also has the highest volume since 1/24, so my guess is it's a bottom of sorts, at least for a few TD.  Still think 3/16 will be the real bottom, or is it too obvious with a Fed meeting and quad witch?