8 replies to this topic

[Douglas]

Now that the cannons sound, I've got to pick my buy spot(s).  The DJIA weekly plot below shows my muddled thinking on this topic.  To pick the line that matters I turn to the great Aretha Franklin who always wanted R-E-S-P-E-C-T.  The lines that the market respects by stopping at and then successfully testing will be my winners.  (I say lines, because I do not expect to be able to pick the exact bottom in my wildest dreams).  I do, I must admit, have my favorites.  You've got to like the nice round ~30,000 level which the internal orange trend line and the 2020 top pivot both roughly point to, and of course for the really bearish how could you not like the 500 week MA which stopped the 2020 panic and is now pointing at ~22,200, all those 2's in 2020, that's got to be worth something.  Also I still think you can't rule out the center Andrews' Pitchfork red line at about 26,000 which matches up nicely with the peak in volume by price to the left of the plot.

 

Of course, all this bearishness hinges on the FED not cranking the QE pumps back on max, easily justified in their minds, I'm sure, by the din of war on the horizon.  If that happens, I guess the March taper will be put on the shelf and it's short squeeze, buy the dip, watch the sky time once again. 

 

 

The above is focused on buying, as far as selling goes, any holders of Taiwan stocks or funds must be sweating bullets this morning just knowing that Xi's got to be sporting an ear to ear Cheshire copy cat grin.

 

Regards,

Douglas

Edited by Douglas, 24 February 2022 - 06:00 AM.

[slupert]

big reversal day?

[slupert]

might be a couple good buys, but I'll hold off for now. Just ST trades Dt's. (JMHO)

[slupert]

You probably heard China's reaction, watch that situation very carefully. That coud bring us dowwn further really fast. (JMHO)

[Douglas]

slupert, the "big reversal day" scenario probably depends on what Jerome says and does.  If he publicly folds and cranks the pumps back to max today, sure we could close up 1 or 2%.  If he grows a couple of cojones and stays the course, maybe not.  The next decent risk window according to my summation system is this coming  Monday the 28th.  All things being equal, I would have to put that forward as a better bet (and literally that) for the next decent low.  On the bullish side of the argument is the fact that the market, despite horrific news, has not crashed.  That would seem at first blush to bolster the bull case.

 

Regards,

Douglas

Edited by Douglas, 24 February 2022 - 07:18 AM.

[brucekeller]

slupert, the "big reversal day" scenario probably depends on what Jerome says and does.  If he publicly folds and cranks the pumps back to max today, sure we could close up 1 or 2%.  If he grows a couple of cojones and stays the course, maybe not.  The next decent risk window according to my summation system is this coming  Monday the 28th.  All things being equal, I would have to put that forward as a better bet (and literally that) for the next decent low.  On the bullish side of the argument is the fact that the market, despite horrific news, has not crashed.  That would seem at first blush to bolster the bull case.

 

Regards,

Douglas

Is he actually speaking today in some emergency fashion?  Didn't see anything on the news or their calendar, just one guy speaking at a college at night.

[12SPX]

I already heard some time last night that the EU bankers were in there supporting and I'm sure the Fed will be in here too, rate increases, what rate increases lol.  I have another forcast for that fork to....  What if the market just kinda went sideways for the next couple years putting the market kinda in the middle???

[pdx5]

Only Russia and China know the answer, as to how far low stocks will fall.

If China attacks Taiwan, those with ultra short holdings will make a fortune. 

Watch the news, not the sky.

[Douglas]

It sure is looking like a reversal day in one index or another.  The Nasty was in the green a few minutes ago after being down 2%,  and there are rumors that the FED has decided to ignore inflation, ignore the bubble and has put tapering and rate increases on hold until, well, until they have to find another excuse.  Taking a page from the central bank, it appears that no truly serious sanctions have been imposed, Vlad can still export metals, oil and gas and still clear sales through the Swift  system, so the dogs of war are all bark and no bite regarding the invasion.  I guess it must be buy the dip time.  

 

Regards,

Douglas

Edited by Douglas, 24 February 2022 - 01:41 PM.