Now that the cannons sound, I've got to pick my buy spot(s). The DJIA weekly plot below shows my muddled thinking on this topic. To pick the line that matters I turn to the great Aretha Franklin who always wanted R-E-S-P-E-C-T. The lines that the market respects by stopping at and then successfully testing will be my winners. (I say lines, because I do not expect to be able to pick the exact bottom in my wildest dreams). I do, I must admit, have my favorites. You've got to like the nice round ~30,000 level which the internal orange trend line and the 2020 top pivot both roughly point to, and of course for the really bearish how could you not like the 500 week MA which stopped the 2020 panic and is now pointing at ~22,200, all those 2's in 2020, that's got to be worth something. Also I still think you can't rule out the center Andrews' Pitchfork red line at about 26,000 which matches up nicely with the peak in volume by price to the left of the plot.
Of course, all this bearishness hinges on the FED not cranking the QE pumps back on max, easily justified in their minds, I'm sure, by the din of war on the horizon. If that happens, I guess the March taper will be put on the shelf and it's short squeeze, buy the dip, watch the sky time once again.
The above is focused on buying, as far as selling goes, any holders of Taiwan stocks or funds must be sweating bullets this morning just knowing that Xi's got to be sporting an ear to ear Cheshire copy cat grin.
Regards,
Douglas
Edited by Douglas, 24 February 2022 - 06:00 AM.