4036 replies to this topic

[gannman]

again we need to see some real strength in this sector imo 

 

gld over 181 would get my attention 

[gannman]

i am now thinking the broad market corrects into next week and that might

 

also be the bottom in the gold sector for the metals and the miners 

 

just my thoughts 

[jabat]

Interesting Bifurcation In The Metals Market

By Avi

Let me start with the easier charts – silver and gold.

As you can see from the attached GC chart, gold struck out minimum target for wave 3 off the recent lows almost to the penny, and began this current pullback.   I think the purest expectation for a 5-wave structure would view the current consolidation as a b-wave within wave 4, which would leave a c-wave to be seen in the coming week to complete a 4th wave pullback.  And, as long as we hold over the support noted on the chart (ideally holding the 1787 region), and then rally to complete a 5th wave higher high, we have a VERY strong set up brewing in the gold chart.   That would complete an initial 5-waves off the low, and have us expect a 2nd wave pullback to set up the rally I think will take us into the last half of this year, and then potentially well into 2023.

I will point out the one problem that I do have with this structure.  The 3rd wave only struck the 1.618 extension of waves 1 and 2.  That is not often seen in gold, as gold often provides us with VERY extended moves, with the 3rd wave often exceeding well beyond the 1.618 extension.  So, this is a factor that is weighing in the back of my mind for now.

Silver is pretty much in the same posture.  There is some potential to consider silver as having already completed 5-waves off the low, as the consolidation we saw before we struck the recent higher highs was large enough for a 4th wave within a 5-wave structure.  But, I am going to retain the original count I had, which mirrors the gold count, and view that consolidation as only the 4th wave within the 3rd wave.   But, I “may” adjust this in the coming weeks.  

Again, while these two charts are relatively clear, GDX is equally unclear.   I still have been given no reason to confidently view the GDX as having struck its low, as I still have no clear 5-wave rally off the low.  And, when the GDX gives me a problem, I will sometimes turn to the GDXJ.  And, I have the exact same issue with that chart as well.

While I can force a 5-wave leading diagonal in that chart, such a count has quite a number of issues.  But, I would say the biggest issue I would have with that if you consider the recent high as a 5th wave of the ending diagonal, it did not even strike the 1.618 extension of the first two waves.  Keep in mind that metals often see very strong extensions well beyond standards, and a 5th wave in a leading diagonal often targets the 1.764 extension.  So, to try to count this as a leading diagonal wherein a 5th wave in a metals chart does not even strike the 1.618 extension is simply beyond the pale of what I am willing to consider, especially when you know that I do not rely heavily upon standard leading diagonals that attain their fullness at the 1.764 extension.  There are just too many issues with a leading diagonal potential count for me to even consider adopting that potential.

But, that is not the death knell for this chart.  In fact, it can even support the same count as both GC and silver, which is how I have labeled it.  Yet, I am still struggling with a 3rd wave that does not even strike the 1.618 extension in a metals chart.  Nonetheless, if it is able to fill out the remaining 4-5, I will adopt that count and view the potential that GDXJ has finally bottomed.

This now brings me back to the GDX.  And, there is just no reasonable way for me to count a reliable 5 up in that chart.  

When looking at the NEM – the largest holding within the GDX  (as well as having been my largest holding in the complex until April) - it reinforces my perspective that a lower low can still be seen.   If you remember, I posted an update in April that I was going to be selling my NEM holdings as we were approaching the 85 region.  As I explained at the time, this is the first time I was selling any of my long-term positions that I bought in the last quarter of 2015.  And, the reason I did so was because we hit my long-term target, and I was simply sticking with my long term plan in my largest holding in the mining complex.  Since that time, NEM has dropped almost 50%, and still only looks like its in a micro 4th wave consolidation before a lower low can be seen.  I think this can put pressure on GDX to see a lower low as well.  

Moreover, even when NEM does bottom, I think the next rally may only be a b-wave, and it may well lag the rest of the market.  But, if the start of the next rally is a CLEAR 5-wave structure, then I may be interested in buying back some of what I sold.

Due to the overlapping structure, lack of a potentially clear 5-wave rally off the recent low, and the pressure being put on price by NEM, I still think there is strong potential that GDX may see a lower low in the coming weeks before it is ready to begin its next major bullish run.

In summary, I would much prefer to see one more 4-5 completed to the upside in the silver and GC charts, which will then likely complete a solid 5-wave rally structure off the recent lows.  We will then expect a 2nd wave retracement, which will be a buying opportunity in those charts, and set up the next major rally phase as we look out towards the end of this year and into 2023.  However, GDX is not at all in the same posture, and may still see a lower low before it is ready to begin its next rally.

[Smithy]

Thanks Jabat

[dougie]

Silver looks like expanding diagonal triangle?

[dougie]

 

Interesting Bifurcation In The Metals Market

By Avi

Let me start with the easier charts – silver and gold.

As you can see from the attached GC chart, gold struck out minimum target for wave 3 off the recent lows almost to the penny, and began this current pullback.   I think the purest expectation for a 5-wave structure would view the current consolidation as a b-wave within wave 4, which would leave a c-wave to be seen in the coming week to complete a 4th wave pullback.  And, as long as we hold over the support noted on the chart (ideally holding the 1787 region), and then rally to complete a 5th wave higher high, we have a VERY strong set up brewing in the gold chart.   That would complete an initial 5-waves off the low, and have us expect a 2nd wave pullback to set up the rally I think will take us into the last half of this year, and then potentially well into 2023.

I will point out the one problem that I do have with this structure.  The 3rd wave only struck the 1.618 extension of waves 1 and 2.  That is not often seen in gold, as gold often provides us with VERY extended moves, with the 3rd wave often exceeding well beyond the 1.618 extension.  So, this is a factor that is weighing in the back of my mind for now.

Silver is pretty much in the same posture.  There is some potential to consider silver as having already completed 5-waves off the low, as the consolidation we saw before we struck the recent higher highs was large enough for a 4th wave within a 5-wave structure.  But, I am going to retain the original count I had, which mirrors the gold count, and view that consolidation as only the 4th wave within the 3rd wave.   But, I “may” adjust this in the coming weeks.  

Again, while these two charts are relatively clear, GDX is equally unclear.   I still have been given no reason to confidently view the GDX as having struck its low, as I still have no clear 5-wave rally off the low.  And, when the GDX gives me a problem, I will sometimes turn to the GDXJ.  And, I have the exact same issue with that chart as well.

While I can force a 5-wave leading diagonal in that chart, such a count has quite a number of issues.  But, I would say the biggest issue I would have with that if you consider the recent high as a 5th wave of the ending diagonal, it did not even strike the 1.618 extension of the first two waves.  Keep in mind that metals often see very strong extensions well beyond standards, and a 5th wave in a leading diagonal often targets the 1.764 extension.  So, to try to count this as a leading diagonal wherein a 5th wave in a metals chart does not even strike the 1.618 extension is simply beyond the pale of what I am willing to consider, especially when you know that I do not rely heavily upon standard leading diagonals that attain their fullness at the 1.764 extension.  There are just too many issues with a leading diagonal potential count for me to even consider adopting that potential.

But, that is not the death knell for this chart.  In fact, it can even support the same count as both GC and silver, which is how I have labeled it.  Yet, I am still struggling with a 3rd wave that does not even strike the 1.618 extension in a metals chart.  Nonetheless, if it is able to fill out the remaining 4-5, I will adopt that count and view the potential that GDXJ has finally bottomed.

This now brings me back to the GDX.  And, there is just no reasonable way for me to count a reliable 5 up in that chart.  

When looking at the NEM – the largest holding within the GDX  (as well as having been my largest holding in the complex until April) - it reinforces my perspective that a lower low can still be seen.   If you remember, I posted an update in April that I was going to be selling my NEM holdings as we were approaching the 85 region.  As I explained at the time, this is the first time I was selling any of my long-term positions that I bought in the last quarter of 2015.  And, the reason I did so was because we hit my long-term target, and I was simply sticking with my long term plan in my largest holding in the mining complex.  Since that time, NEM has dropped almost 50%, and still only looks like its in a micro 4th wave consolidation before a lower low can be seen.  I think this can put pressure on GDX to see a lower low as well.  

Moreover, even when NEM does bottom, I think the next rally may only be a b-wave, and it may well lag the rest of the market.  But, if the start of the next rally is a CLEAR 5-wave structure, then I may be interested in buying back some of what I sold.

Due to the overlapping structure, lack of a potentially clear 5-wave rally off the recent low, and the pressure being put on price by NEM, I still think there is strong potential that GDX may see a lower low in the coming weeks before it is ready to begin its next major bullish run.

In summary, I would much prefer to see one more 4-5 completed to the upside in the silver and GC charts, which will then likely complete a solid 5-wave rally structure off the recent lows.  We will then expect a 2nd wave retracement, which will be a buying opportunity in those charts, and set up the next major rally phase as we look out towards the end of this year and into 2023.  However, GDX is not at all in the same posture, and may still see a lower low before it is ready to begin its next rally.

 

wow: he does some good work. lows right in there

[senorBS]

gen mkt "might" be inching closer to a bear mkt rally top, maybe some time this week, I have done nothing yet, we see

 

Senor

[dharma]

gen mkt "might" be inching closer to a bear mkt rally top, maybe some time this week, I have done nothing yet, we see

 

Senor

yes, gold was due to make a  top this week.  we have entered into crash season.  i have the top , fwiw , in the pms , sept 14-16 and the broad market to hit the skids for real then 

raising rates is not good for companies bottom lines.  as per the study i did on mars on vedic astrology page. i now think the other bubble, housing, to hit the skids  soon as well. the last bubble bonds, i dont follow at all. but w/86k new irs agents its a way to enslave citizens of this country.       i wonder out loud as an intriguing thought it is now crash season and it is also the start of hurricaine season.  would be interesting to see if there is a correlation. or  they have no relationship just happen stance

dharma

excerpt from merriman

We are now in the midst of the most intense geocosmic climate of the year in August and September. Everything cosmically is pointing to the week of September 21-28 when Saturn will make its 4th and final 45-year waning square passage to Uranus (well, within less than a degree of exactness). This will be the sixth time this aspect has happened in the U.S. history. Every alternate or “other time” is 90 years, and it is interesting to note that the “other times” of the early 1840s and 1930s have coincided with the most devastating stock market crashes ever (80 and 90% losses, respectively). Could it happen again this decade? It’s possible, but as of now, the recent decline appears to be only a normal 23-month cycle trough that ended June 16-17 with a decline of 19.7% in the DJIA. Our forecast was for 10-26%, after which a powerful rally would unfold until at least September-December 2022          i am looking for a big take down in the broad market  which will spill over to the pms.  

Edited by dharma, 15 August 2022 - 02:20 PM.

[dharma]

jabat appreciate the avi updates.   i appreciate his thinking

dharma

[linrom1]

Yes, thanks for Avi update. He has kept many from buying GDX.