4036 replies to this topic

[crossd]

monday we crash imo

Barrons a week ago cited 3 times when crashes occurred even tho we are massively oversold(..talking stocks here) 1998...1987...1973-74

donc

[K Wave]

http://www.321gold.c...lton092322.html

 

dharma

Not to be a party pooper, but GDX entered full blown bear market in June after the MAJOR FUMBLE at the 900 day in June.

 

It is most likely going to the Covid lows now after Friday's disaster, and momo just starting to roll over again.

 

Especially if Gold breaks under 1640 on Monday, which is pretty much the bulls last of the last stands..Weekly chart lookin' super scary on Gold now now barring immediate huge rally.

 

 

And Gold Daily....have to say, from an unbiased look at the chart, bear market has begun, and could start to see big time acceleration down soon, similar to GDX before it.

I know Gold dipped under 900 back in 2018, but weekly chart looks completely different here with the Huge Twin Towers stickin' up in the sky.

 

Am not hopeful at this juncture that bulls will prevail any time soon after last week's action.

 

In any event, until Gold establishes a base back above 900 day...very dangerous waters here....

 

[linrom1]

I'd be very careful with shorting gold and silver here. There is no one opening new short positions!

[dougie]

 

 

At the risk of stating the obvious, the Fed is sucking dollars out of the global financial system and the shortage of dollars is causing the USD to go parabolic. Not something I want to stand in front of.

"Yup, the 40 year cycle turn is plain as day in that Monthly 200 MA...

 

Those that keep calling for the demise of the dollar imminently will continue to do so, and continue to be wrong...

 

The 6 other currencies are so much worse off."

 

Marty Armstrong has said for many years that the US dollar would go up as Capital fled Europe from the coming debt crisis (they are going to default on the debt created since WWII which will start in 2023 into 2024, this will be followed by WWIII which the political elite want as a diversion from the growing civil unrest after the social programs and pension collapse. Schwab's 'you will own nothing and be happy' is giving the elite permission to default while pretending it is for the people who will also need to get used to zee bugs for dinner. Armstrong predicted the unfolding crisis at least 3 decades ago and like a dying body the outer extremities die off first and finally the core (the USA) dies last which will happen later this decade. His latest interview is well worth listening to... https://www.armstron...-a-nato-vassal/

 

My US dollar chart has good projections for a major high in late 2023, however he thinks Gold will also start to move up after the Nov. elections, the stock markets and gold will bottom towards the end of the year he says, my projections for the SP500 are for it to bottom around early Dec. The dollar index chart's signal is anchored on the 2020 covid crash which gives it great power. 

 

 

 

nice work Russ.

How low do you think gold will go into December?

[dougie]

who would have ever guessed that moving the doomsday clock towards zero would see gold collapse...

no one seems to think that crushing gold might also be a weapn being used here

[jabat]

Finally Completing a VERY Long-Term Correction In Metals

By Avi

For the last several months, I have been quite reticent to declare the final lows as having been struck in the metals complex.  The structure just did not look complete to my eyes.  Yet, as I write this update, I am now much more confident that the lows we will strike on this last poke lower will finally complete a long-term c-wave decline in the metals complex, setting up a reversal which should re-assert the longer-term bullish trend.

However, I do have to note that there is an interpretation I am presenting in silver which may have it one degree ahead of the rest of the charts.  But, it certainly has its share of issues.  Allow me to explain.

First, I had a very hard time counting a clear 5-wave completion into the recent lows in silver.  Furthermore, the only way to consider a leading diagonal as having completed to the upside is via a truncated 5th wave higher high.  Now, I must admit that it is not unusual for silver to strike a double top.  We have seen this many times throughout its history, and those of us that have traded silver over the long-term know that of which I speak.  Yet, to consider a non-overlapping leading diagonal with a truncated 5th wave is really a bit too much for me to buy into for my money.   But, again, the potential exists, which is why I am clearly presenting it.

For me to more strongly consider placing my money on this potential structure, I am going to need to see us completing a corrective c-wave in wave 2 over the coming week or so, followed by a CLEAR 5-wave rally to fill in wave i of 3.  Thereafter, I am going to need to see a corrective wave ii pullback, followed by a break out over both waves i and 1 to strongly indicate that the low is in place for silver, and it is going to lead the complex in a strong rally off the recent lows.  In fact, I will likely become aggressive to the long-side should we see such a signal in the coming weeks.

Both GLD and GDX seem to need just a bit lower before this downside structure can be complete.  But, I will warn you . . . should we see an impulsive move up off a low in both GDX and GLD in the coming week or two, I will likely be turning very bullish on the complex.  Yet, until that happens, I am going to maintain patience – as well as investable cash.   In fact, I still have the cash I raised from selling my NEM holdings in April of this year burning a hole in my pocket, waiting to be put back to use in the complex.  And, my trigger finger has become quite itchy as I look at these bottoming structures.

For those th

[dougie]

 

Finally Completing a VERY Long-Term Correction In Metals

By Avi

For the last several months, I have been quite reticent to declare the final lows as having been struck in the metals complex.  The structure just did not look complete to my eyes.  Yet, as I write this update, I am now much more confident that the lows we will strike on this last poke lower will finally complete a long-term c-wave decline in the metals complex, setting up a reversal which should re-assert the longer-term bullish trend.

However, I do have to note that there is an interpretation I am presenting in silver which may have it one degree ahead of the rest of the charts.  But, it certainly has its share of issues.  Allow me to explain.

First, I had a very hard time counting a clear 5-wave completion into the recent lows in silver.  Furthermore, the only way to consider a leading diagonal as having completed to the upside is via a truncated 5th wave higher high.  Now, I must admit that it is not unusual for silver to strike a double top.  We have seen this many times throughout its history, and those of us that have traded silver over the long-term know that of which I speak.  Yet, to consider a non-overlapping leading diagonal with a truncated 5th wave is really a bit too much for me to buy into for my money.   But, again, the potential exists, which is why I am clearly presenting it.

For me to more strongly consider placing my money on this potential structure, I am going to need to see us completing a corrective c-wave in wave 2 over the coming week or so, followed by a CLEAR 5-wave rally to fill in wave i of 3.  Thereafter, I am going to need to see a corrective wave ii pullback, followed by a break out over both waves i and 1 to strongly indicate that the low is in place for silver, and it is going to lead the complex in a strong rally off the recent lows.  In fact, I will likely become aggressive to the long-side should we see such a signal in the coming weeks.

Both GLD and GDX seem to need just a bit lower before this downside structure can be complete.  But, I will warn you . . . should we see an impulsive move up off a low in both GDX and GLD in the coming week or two, I will likely be turning very bullish on the complex.  Yet, until that happens, I am going to maintain patience – as well as investable cash.   In fact, I still have the cash I raised from selling my NEM holdings in April of this year burning a hole in my pocket, waiting to be put back to use in the complex.  And, my trigger finger has become quite itchy as I look at these bottoming structures.

For those th

 

well seems like he is well hedged

[senorBS]

 

 

Finally Completing a VERY Long-Term Correction In Metals

By Avi

For the last several months, I have been quite reticent to declare the final lows as having been struck in the metals complex.  The structure just did not look complete to my eyes.  Yet, as I write this update, I am now much more confident that the lows we will strike on this last poke lower will finally complete a long-term c-wave decline in the metals complex, setting up a reversal which should re-assert the longer-term bullish trend.

However, I do have to note that there is an interpretation I am presenting in silver which may have it one degree ahead of the rest of the charts.  But, it certainly has its share of issues.  Allow me to explain.

First, I had a very hard time counting a clear 5-wave completion into the recent lows in silver.  Furthermore, the only way to consider a leading diagonal as having completed to the upside is via a truncated 5th wave higher high.  Now, I must admit that it is not unusual for silver to strike a double top.  We have seen this many times throughout its history, and those of us that have traded silver over the long-term know that of which I speak.  Yet, to consider a non-overlapping leading diagonal with a truncated 5th wave is really a bit too much for me to buy into for my money.   But, again, the potential exists, which is why I am clearly presenting it.

For me to more strongly consider placing my money on this potential structure, I am going to need to see us completing a corrective c-wave in wave 2 over the coming week or so, followed by a CLEAR 5-wave rally to fill in wave i of 3.  Thereafter, I am going to need to see a corrective wave ii pullback, followed by a break out over both waves i and 1 to strongly indicate that the low is in place for silver, and it is going to lead the complex in a strong rally off the recent lows.  In fact, I will likely become aggressive to the long-side should we see such a signal in the coming weeks.

Both GLD and GDX seem to need just a bit lower before this downside structure can be complete.  But, I will warn you . . . should we see an impulsive move up off a low in both GDX and GLD in the coming week or two, I will likely be turning very bullish on the complex.  Yet, until that happens, I am going to maintain patience – as well as investable cash.   In fact, I still have the cash I raised from selling my NEM holdings in April of this year burning a hole in my pocket, waiting to be put back to use in the complex.  And, my trigger finger has become quite itchy as I look at these bottoming structures.

For those th

 

well seems like he is well hedged

 

agree with his analysis, key is how low this very likely wave 5 of C goes, will be watching for Aussie XGD to probably bottom first as it lead the way lower and has bottomed first at prior key lows

 

Senor

[Russ]

 

 

 

At the risk of stating the obvious, the Fed is sucking dollars out of the global financial system and the shortage of dollars is causing the USD to go parabolic. Not something I want to stand in front of.

"Yup, the 40 year cycle turn is plain as day in that Monthly 200 MA...

 

Those that keep calling for the demise of the dollar imminently will continue to do so, and continue to be wrong...

 

The 6 other currencies are so much worse off."

 

Marty Armstrong has said for many years that the US dollar would go up as Capital fled Europe from the coming debt crisis (they are going to default on the debt created since WWII which will start in 2023 into 2024, this will be followed by WWIII which the political elite want as a diversion from the growing civil unrest after the social programs and pension collapse. Schwab's 'you will own nothing and be happy' is giving the elite permission to default while pretending it is for the people who will also need to get used to zee bugs for dinner. Armstrong predicted the unfolding crisis at least 3 decades ago and like a dying body the outer extremities die off first and finally the core (the USA) dies last which will happen later this decade. His latest interview is well worth listening to... https://www.armstron...-a-nato-vassal/

 

My US dollar chart has good projections for a major high in late 2023, however he thinks Gold will also start to move up after the Nov. elections, the stock markets and gold will bottom towards the end of the year he says, my projections for the SP500 are for it to bottom around early Dec. The dollar index chart's signal is anchored on the 2020 covid crash which gives it great power. 

 

 

 

nice work Russ.

How low do you think gold will go into December?

 

Thanks Dougie,  1500 area as Armstrong said is the next support since Gold has now broken previous lows looks possible, my main signal now is for SP500 to go down into early Dec. (could also be late Nov)  so it looks like it's going to keep crashing down and gold will go down with it but my signal is for SPX not gold.  King dollar is the money magnet now.  If Gold gets to 1500 and then goes up to 6000 by 2024 that will be a hell of a springboard as the world heads into hell and nothing can be done to stop it. As the late British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher said to Armstrong... "it's just time", her sense of cycles.   

Edited by Russ, 25 September 2022 - 10:05 AM.

[linrom1]

 

 

 

well seems like he is well hedged

 

agree with his analysis, key is how low this very likely wave 5 of C goes, will be watching for Aussie XGD to probably bottom first as it lead the way lower and has bottomed first at prior key lows

 

Senor

 

 

Good suggestion. This is Newcrest, largest gold miner in Australia. They trade a day ahead of US so they missed Friday's massacre in US, but you can make a case that it finished 5-waves down.