4036 replies to this topic

[dougie]

Not liking the Monthly chart configuration on Gold at all...

 

 

They did manage to hang on to 1660, but very real possibility we get gap underneath first day of October and just Go....

Highly dangerous now under 1660.....

 

indeed

[dougie]

https://twitter.com/...866031834165248

[dougie]

gold in one form only will be worht anything soon

https://twitter.com/...858362272677890

[senorBS]

 

 

Does gold get to 1680 1690 on this bounce before heading back down to 1450 area/

I would suggest focusing on upside vs downside, just my dos centavos

 

Senor

 

one must keep both perspectives in order. Take out that DT line with some gusto and backtest it and i am with you

 

I always keep perspective and look both ways as those on this board should realize, "proof" of that is my accts eked out new all-time highs yesterday is a year I have pretty much traded 90% plus gold/silver miners and from the long side only! That means I have bought the oversold extremes fairly well and exited when there were signs the rally was a bear mkt rally. IMO at this time the upside in gold/miners deserve the benefit of doubt, but one must remain flexible. Here's another bullish tidbit IMO - a Fred Hickey tweet:

 

"Managed Money (hedge funds & commodity traders) went deeper net short gold futures contracts by 6.4K (to -43K) in today's COT report (thru Tues.). Only period with higher net shorts occurred in Fall 2018 -just prior to huge gold rally. Also higher than Dec. 2015 - prior to bottom

 

Senor

[dougie]

 

 

 

Does gold get to 1680 1690 on this bounce before heading back down to 1450 area/

I would suggest focusing on upside vs downside, just my dos centavos

 

Senor

 

one must keep both perspectives in order. Take out that DT line with some gusto and backtest it and i am with you

 

I always keep perspective and look both ways as those on this board should realize, "proof" of that is my accts eked out new all-time highs yesterday is a year I have pretty much traded 90% plus gold/silver miners and from the long side only! That means I have bought the oversold extremes fairly well and exited when there were signs the rally was a bear mkt rally. IMO at this time the upside in gold/miners deserve the benefit of doubt, but one must remain flexible. Here's another bullish tidbit IMO - a Fred Hickey tweet:

 

"Managed Money (hedge funds & commodity traders) went deeper net short gold futures contracts by 6.4K (to -43K) in today's COT report (thru Tues.). Only period with higher net shorts occurred in Fall 2018 -just prior to huge gold rally. Also higher than Dec. 2015 - prior to bottom

 

Senor

 

that you are nimble and accureate is no mystery to those here

[senorBS]

 

 

 

 

Does gold get to 1680 1690 on this bounce before heading back down to 1450 area/

I would suggest focusing on upside vs downside, just my dos centavos

 

Senor

 

one must keep both perspectives in order. Take out that DT line with some gusto and backtest it and i am with you

 

I always keep perspective and look both ways as those on this board should realize, "proof" of that is my accts eked out new all-time highs yesterday is a year I have pretty much traded 90% plus gold/silver miners and from the long side only! That means I have bought the oversold extremes fairly well and exited when there were signs the rally was a bear mkt rally. IMO at this time the upside in gold/miners deserve the benefit of doubt, but one must remain flexible. Here's another bullish tidbit IMO - a Fred Hickey tweet:

 

"Managed Money (hedge funds & commodity traders) went deeper net short gold futures contracts by 6.4K (to -43K) in today's COT report (thru Tues.). Only period with higher net shorts occurred in Fall 2018 -just prior to huge gold rally. Also higher than Dec. 2015 - prior to bottom

 

Senor

 

that you are nimble and accureate is no mystery to those here

 

I guess my confusion is why so many here (knowledgeable folks IMO), to me at least are focused more on the downside and so little on upside, especially when we have ALL the usual ingredients IMO in place as we have had at only a handful of bottoms in the past decade or more, no one knows for sure but IMO the risk/reward here is as good as what we saw at the 2016/2018/2020 lows, what's clearly is debate is whether the final low is in place (60/40 it is IMO - next week could tell us a lot more), but even if we go down again it will likely be marginal or "modest" new lows IMO. we see

 

Senor

[dougie]

COT reports IS looking about as bullish as it gets : specs are nearly short. Comms nearly long

[Smithy]

Senor, I agree, the reading of the entrails for a g&s low here are very good indeed.

Notwithstanding, I am keeping some powder dry for a possible low in December,

whether higher or lower I can't tell.

[dougie]

 

 

 

 

 

Does gold get to 1680 1690 on this bounce before heading back down to 1450 area/

I would suggest focusing on upside vs downside, just my dos centavos

 

Senor

 

one must keep both perspectives in order. Take out that DT line with some gusto and backtest it and i am with you

 

I always keep perspective and look both ways as those on this board should realize, "proof" of that is my accts eked out new all-time highs yesterday is a year I have pretty much traded 90% plus gold/silver miners and from the long side only! That means I have bought the oversold extremes fairly well and exited when there were signs the rally was a bear mkt rally. IMO at this time the upside in gold/miners deserve the benefit of doubt, but one must remain flexible. Here's another bullish tidbit IMO - a Fred Hickey tweet:

 

"Managed Money (hedge funds & commodity traders) went deeper net short gold futures contracts by 6.4K (to -43K) in today's COT report (thru Tues.). Only period with higher net shorts occurred in Fall 2018 -just prior to huge gold rally. Also higher than Dec. 2015 - prior to bottom

 

Senor

 

that you are nimble and accureate is no mystery to those here

 

I guess my confusion is why so many here (knowledgeable folks IMO), to me at least are focused more on the downside and so little on upside, especially when we have ALL the usual ingredients IMO in place as we have had at only a handful of bottoms in the past decade or more, no one knows for sure but IMO the risk/reward here is as good as what we saw at the 2016/2018/2020 lows, what's clearly is debate is whether the final low is in place (60/40 it is IMO - next week could tell us a lot more), but even if we go down again it will likely be marginal or "modest" new lows IMO. we see

 

Senor

 

i just dont see how one could count weekly cycles as bopttomed in GOLD given the break of important lows recently..it doesnt mean it should crash i just think we have more time for lift off

[dougie]

if the broad markets dont bounce here margin calls will cause metals to plummet imo