4036 replies to this topic

[K Wave]

Assuming Bulls can prevent this week's candle from turning into a long tailed reversal back down, going to start to like look of weekly Silver again.

 

[jabat]

Oh So Close

By Avi

I warned you last weekend that we were very close to completing this very long pullback in the metals complex.  And, I also warned you that if we were to see a 5-wave rally off a low, I would be turning very bullish on the complex.  Well, we are just about at that point.

You see, the market did move a bit lower as expected in GDX and GLD, whereas silver seems to be holding an initial 1-2 structure off its low.  And, this past week, we seem to have developed a 5-wave rally off the low struck during the week.   So, in silver, this seems to best be counted as wave [i] of 3, whereas in GLD and GDX it is simply the initial 5-wave move off what may have been the final low in the complex for many charts.  

As you can see from the 8-minute chart attached of GDX, we have a very nice 5-wave rally off this past week’s low.  And, the proportions between the waves are truly quite supportive of a 5-wave structure.  Therefore, what I will be looking for in GDX and GLD is a 2nd wave corrective pullback, followed by a rally over the high of the initial 5-wave move to trigger what seems to be developing as a larger 5-wave rally off the recent lows.   And, should we complete this higher degree 5-wave rally off the lows, then we will be moving into a very bullish posture, wherein all pullbacks will be buying opportunities well into 2023.

While I have added a pivot on the silver chart, I am unable to do so yet in the GDX and GLD charts.  Once their respective 2nd waves are complete, then I can provide smaller degree charts with their respective pivots outlined.   And, remember, should the market break out through those pivots to the upside, they then become support, which can be used as natural stops for long positions.

For those seeking entries into the metals market, there are a number of ways to skin this cat (my apologies to Merc and all other cat lovers).  For those that are a bit more aggressive, you can choose to buy positions on the current 2nd wave pullback, with your stops placed at the low struck this past week.  And, once we break out through the pivots, you can then move up your stops to the bottom of the pivots.  If you want to be a bit less aggressive, you can simply wait until the market breaks out through the pivots to buy your positions, while placing your stops below the pivots.  And, for those that want a bit more assurance before you add positions in this complex, you can wait until the next larger degree 5-wave rally completes, and then buy into the market on the 2nd wave pullback.

The key point is to know what type of trader/investor you are so that you can align your entries with your personal risk profile.  So, one should never be asking me “is this a good time to buy into the metals complex?”   The answer is only based upon your own risk profile and each individual has a different risk profile.  So, there is never a right answer to this question as the answer differs by person.   Only you can answer that question.   But, I do provide the entry outlines for each risk profile, as outlined above.

Moreover, one may also want to consider layering into the market at each of the junctures I have outlined above.  That way you spread the risk amongst your various positions as you layer into the market. Again, these are just some ideas as to how you can move into the metals complex as the market transitions back into a bullish trend.

In summary, we have some initial indications that a bottom may have been struck in the metals complex.  I will be looking for a corrective pullback to take shape in the coming week, followed by a rally back over the highs of the initial micro 5-waves up, followed by a break out through the pivot we will have outlined on each chart once their respective 2nd waves are completed.  This would strongly indicate that a bottom has finally been struck in the complex, and that we are now transitioning into the bullish phase I expect to take us well into 2023.

[K Wave]

And for those of you who follow along with my methods....THIS...is what has me concerned that bulls might not get it done....

 

But if they do get that reclaim, then The Great Shake N Bake of 2022 may be upon us.

 

Edited by K Wave, 03 October 2022 - 10:25 AM.

[linrom1]

 

Oh So Close

By Avi

I warned you last weekend that we were very close to completing this very long pullback in the metals complex.  And, I also warned you that if we were to see a 5-wave rally off a low, I would be turning very bullish on the complex.  Well, we are just about at that point.

You see, the market did move a bit lower as expected in GDX and GLD, whereas silver seems to be holding an initial 1-2 structure off its low.  And, this past week, we seem to have developed a 5-wave rally off the low struck during the week.   So, in silver, this seems to best be counted as wave [i] of 3, whereas in GLD and GDX it is simply the initial 5-wave move off what may have been the final low in the complex for many charts.  

As you can see from the 8-minute chart attached of GDX, we have a very nice 5-wave rally off this past week’s low.  And, the proportions between the waves are truly quite supportive of a 5-wave structure.  Therefore, what I will be looking for in GDX and GLD is a 2nd wave corrective pullback, followed by a rally over the high of the initial 5-wave move to trigger what seems to be developing as a larger 5-wave rally off the recent lows.   And, should we complete this higher degree 5-wave rally off the lows, then we will be moving into a very bullish posture, wherein all pullbacks will be buying opportunities well into 2023.

While I have added a pivot on the silver chart, I am unable to do so yet in the GDX and GLD charts.  Once their respective 2nd waves are complete, then I can provide smaller degree charts with their respective pivots outlined.   And, remember, should the market break out through those pivots to the upside, they then become support, which can be used as natural stops for long positions.

For those seeking entries into the metals market, there are a number of ways to skin this cat (my apologies to Merc and all other cat lovers).  For those that are a bit more aggressive, you can choose to buy positions on the current 2nd wave pullback, with your stops placed at the low struck this past week.  And, once we break out through the pivots, you can then move up your stops to the bottom of the pivots.  If you want to be a bit less aggressive, you can simply wait until the market breaks out through the pivots to buy your positions, while placing your stops below the pivots.  And, for those that want a bit more assurance before you add positions in this complex, you can wait until the next larger degree 5-wave rally completes, and then buy into the market on the 2nd wave pullback.

The key point is to know what type of trader/investor you are so that you can align your entries with your personal risk profile.  So, one should never be asking me “is this a good time to buy into the metals complex?”   The answer is only based upon your own risk profile and each individual has a different risk profile.  So, there is never a right answer to this question as the answer differs by person.   Only you can answer that question.   But, I do provide the entry outlines for each risk profile, as outlined above.

Moreover, one may also want to consider layering into the market at each of the junctures I have outlined above.  That way you spread the risk amongst your various positions as you layer into the market. Again, these are just some ideas as to how you can move into the metals complex as the market transitions back into a bullish trend.

In summary, we have some initial indications that a bottom may have been struck in the metals complex.  I will be looking for a corrective pullback to take shape in the coming week, followed by a rally back over the highs of the initial micro 5-waves up, followed by a break out through the pivot we will have outlined on each chart once their respective 2nd waves are completed.  This would strongly indicate that a bottom has finally been struck in the complex, and that we are now transitioning into the bullish phase I expect to take us well into 2023.

 

This is the most bullish he is since you started posting these when GDX was at $35.

[linrom1]

And for those of you who follow along with my methods....THIS...is what has me concerned that bulls might not get it done....

 

But if they do get that reclaim, then The Great Shake N Bake of 2022 may be upon us.

Are you bullish here?

[linrom1]

 

This far from bullish.

[K Wave]

Most likely failure point for Gold, should it do so, likely just above here at hourly 900...

 

 

 

[dharma]

https://twitter.com/...ORY3gP8AC8WV9RA

looks like the chorus is rising and the pivot will happen sooner

dharma

[tradesurfer]

todays one day rate of change in silver is the highest reading since November 24th, 2008,     silver went on to go up approx 400% from that historical juncture

 

me thinks this is the beginning of an extended short squeeze

 

 

all we need to do is break above 30 for silver to go into orbit.  30 from the yearly charts is the major line to be defended

Edited by tradesurfer, 03 October 2022 - 12:49 PM.

[dougie]

 

Silver is acting just what EWI said it'll do before going into III wave down. So we'll see. I think they were looking for 20.2.

does anyone besides me think gold/silver/miners are bullish? Unreal, it's like some are desperately searching for a bearish opinion no matter that a very bullish looking rally is staring them right in the face!  Anything is possible and I will exit longs IF the price action warrants, but so far all it is telling me is to be and stay long. The doubt and negativity here only reinforces my bull case IMO. we see

 

Senor

 

maybe it is that few are as nimble as you and need more proof?