214 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

Will adjust these SPREAD ORDERS, want to get them filled on this decline today.....

[steadyquest]

Looks dicey to US traders

 

 

But not so much to our trading partners (dollar strength)

 

[dTraderB]

What are they DRINKING at the FED? 

 

FED'S EVANS: BY THE END OF THE YEAR, THE FED WILL BE ABLE TO RAISE RATES OR PAUSE RATE HIKES

[dTraderB]

Most likely this pattern will be followed this month after big DOWN days early in the week (example: TODAY) and then "face-ripping" rallies on 2 to 3 days end APRIL OPTIONS expiration week...  my trading is reflecting my belief that this may be more than 50/50 possible

[dTraderB]

This was supposed to be posted below this previous post:
 

StockTrader'sAlmanac

 

@AlmanacTrader

·

16m

 

April Monthly Option Expiration Week Historically Bullish: DJIA Up 33 of Last 40 - April’s monthly option expiration is generally bullish across the board with solid gains on the last day of the week, the entire week and the week after. Since...

 

Most likely this pattern will be followed this month after big DOWN days early in the week (example: TODAY) and then "face-ripping" rallies on 2 to 3 days end APRIL OPTIONS expiration week...  my trading is reflecting my belief that this may be more than 50/50 possible

[dTraderB]

ES 4415 being tested -- hold or else 4380 

 

 

[dTraderB]

closed YEN SHORTs

small profit but most welcome

will reshort higher than 125.50

[dTraderB]

Could drop another 100 or more before reversal

 

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/

 

[dTraderB]

A profitable Monday with large profits in NQ daytrading, smaller profits in SPY PUTS, YEN SHORTS,  ND LOSSES IN TLT CALLS & SPREADS

 

Could have chalked up another NQ daytrade record but there was a messy period with 4 green hourly candles, even in such a BIG down day. 

Those 4 consecutive red hourly CANDLES fell fast, just over 200 points. I also spent too much time on adjusting SPREAD order prices... not worth it but sometimes a trader just wants to get the best fills when determined to get it done.

 

I am a bit skittish about the markets, even in big down or up days. The FED is trying to thread an intricate needle and could finesse 50bps rate hikes so that the economy  & markets can adjust to both inflation, high yields, supply chain issues, and war in Ukraine. They can pull it off but it will not be a smooth and certain process. 

The FED PUT has been estimated at about ES 3800 so they have room to operate and the markets dropping, the economy slowing, and easing of supply chain issues can do some of the FED's job. 
 

So, I am also starting trades, positions, as if we are near PEAK YIELD, peak FED hawkishness, and PEAK inflation. It does not mean the markets will not go down, and may create a new 2022 low, but the greatest danger to the economy now is the war in Ukraine and potential disruptions etc. 

 

I like the YEN trades. Not big positions, not holding for too long, may not even hold overnight, but SHORT YEN trades are ONLY VST with tight STOPS. 
There will be intervention by the JCB if YEN plunges below 128 to 130

[dTraderB]