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Inflation


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#1 MikeyG

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Posted 03 May 2022 - 07:44 AM

Is starting to subside. We will see it the CPI numbers later this year.

#2 12SPX

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Posted 03 May 2022 - 08:22 AM

Totally agree and another reason the Fed won't be going crazy on raising rates! 



#3 gm_general

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Posted 03 May 2022 - 10:27 AM

If you haven't noticed, Federal debt has been doubling every 8 years at least since 2001. I attribute this not just to largess but also due to a need to throw new debt into the system at an increasing rate. This is due to the ever declining productivity of new debt as far as GDP and private debt can't shoulder the necessary increases. All this means $40T Federal debt in 2025, $80T in 2033, and $160T in 2041. Lest you think I overestimated I found I was spot on as far as the goverment's own report I saw.

 

All this means is $10T added debt in the next 3 years, and $40T added in the following 8. So what do you think this will do for inflation? You haven't seen anything yet.

 

Which reminds me of a variant of a grave I came up with

 

Here lies the body of Benjamin Blake

Stepped on the gas and also the brake


Edited by gm_general, 03 May 2022 - 10:33 AM.


#4 linrom1

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Posted 03 May 2022 - 10:38 AM

Not so fast. Inflation will be here for a long time.



#5 MikeyG

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Posted 03 May 2022 - 11:20 AM

If you haven't noticed, Federal debt has been doubling every 8 years at least since 2001. I attribute this not just to largess but also due to a need to throw new debt into the system at an increasing rate. This is due to the ever declining productivity of new debt as far as GDP and private debt can't shoulder the necessary increases. All this means $40T Federal debt in 2025, $80T in 2033, and $160T in 2041. Lest you think I overestimated I found I was spot on as far as the goverment's own report I saw.
 
All this means is $10T added debt in the next 3 years, and $40T added in the following 8. So what do you think this will do for inflation? You haven't seen anything yet.
 
Which reminds me of a variant of a grave I came up with
 
Here lies the body of Benjamin Blake
Stepped on the gas and also the brake



And what have rates done since 2001?

#6 gm_general

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Posted 03 May 2022 - 12:39 PM

 

If you haven't noticed, Federal debt has been doubling every 8 years at least since 2001. I attribute this not just to largess but also due to a need to throw new debt into the system at an increasing rate. This is due to the ever declining productivity of new debt as far as GDP and private debt can't shoulder the necessary increases. All this means $40T Federal debt in 2025, $80T in 2033, and $160T in 2041. Lest you think I overestimated I found I was spot on as far as the goverment's own report I saw.
 
All this means is $10T added debt in the next 3 years, and $40T added in the following 8. So what do you think this will do for inflation? You haven't seen anything yet.
 
Which reminds me of a variant of a grave I came up with
 
Here lies the body of Benjamin Blake
Stepped on the gas and also the brake


And what have rates done since 2001?

 

The Fed is stuck in theatre performance stalling for time - they have to pretend like most inflation is not coming from them printing trillions, and rates can go up without disaster, in other words that they have viable options. When their lack of ability to fix things is publicly acknowledged who knows what will hit the fan?

 

 



#7 MikeyG

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Posted 03 May 2022 - 12:55 PM

Bottom line is inflation is more people chasing less goods. The USAs population has flattened and might turn down this year. I would expect the 10 year to be around 1 percent sometime this decade.

#8 kaiser soze

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Posted 03 May 2022 - 04:21 PM

The question here is whether the current inflation is CYCLICAL or STRUCTURAL.  

 

If it is cyclical, it might top out some time this year as demand weakens in response to higher prices. Some people even think that inflation has already topped out.  Inflation resulting from re-opening demand and supply chain bottlenecks would be cyclical. 

 

If it is structural, it might last several decades.  Inflation resulting from the dynamics of continuously increasing developed world sovereign debt creation would be structural. 

 

I have a hard time figuring out whether inflation due to the lack of energy supplies is cyclical or structural or perhaps even deflationary.  Energy demand is inelastic, so it should be structural but we have seen oil prices come down and even go negative when demand craters, so that would imply cyclical inflation due to Russia/Ukraine, lack of investment in energy, etc.  



#9 K Wave

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Posted 04 May 2022 - 11:10 AM

 

If you haven't noticed, Federal debt has been doubling every 8 years at least since 2001. I attribute this not just to largess but also due to a need to throw new debt into the system at an increasing rate. This is due to the ever declining productivity of new debt as far as GDP and private debt can't shoulder the necessary increases. All this means $40T Federal debt in 2025, $80T in 2033, and $160T in 2041. Lest you think I overestimated I found I was spot on as far as the goverment's own report I saw.
 
All this means is $10T added debt in the next 3 years, and $40T added in the following 8. So what do you think this will do for inflation? You haven't seen anything yet.
 
Which reminds me of a variant of a grave I came up with
 
Here lies the body of Benjamin Blake
Stepped on the gas and also the brake



And what have rates done since 2001?

 

Long term cycle has turned.....those that do not realize that may have a rude awakening...


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#10 12SPX

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Posted 04 May 2022 - 12:45 PM

Bottom line is inflation is more people chasing less goods. The USAs population has flattened and might turn down this year. I would expect the 10 year to be around 1 percent sometime this decade.

Exactly, rates are not going through the roof for sure!!